FAIR GROUNDS NOTEBOOK
DECEMBER 11, 2009
by Frank Cotolo
The 138th Fair Grounds season began on November 6 and a bit
more than a month into it, we begin our notebook, featuring weekly stats and
information for betting on the dirt and the Stall-Wilson turf course.
The home of the lucrative Louisiana Derby (G2) continues to offer a stakes
race or more on the turf on all but four of the 21-week season. There will be 63 stakes
presented, 24 of them on the green. Also, this meet there will not be any mile
events on the main track. This means there will not be an alternate finish line,
which was used for eight-furlong races.
Our first notebook eyes the Louisiana Champions Day program on Saturday, offering
the best state-bred competitors to the moment. See below for details.
SURFACE REPORT
The Louisiana weather is beginning to show signs of deep winter, but the
dependable main track at Fair Grounds is one of the fairest surfaces in the
sport. The long stretch run typically gives closers every opportunity to
succeed, but speed has been a definite plus recently on the main track, with 40
percent wire-to-wire winners last week. Twenty-eight percent of the winners
could be defined as “closers.”
On the turf, being close or on top made winning far easier than employing
late, freight-train tactics. Sixty-seven percent of the races were won last week
either on the lead or close to it, and only a
pair of horses came from far behind to get to the finish line first.
The public was spot-on
with its choices last week. A total of 33 percent favorites, on dirt and turf, succeeded
in 49 races presented. A great deal of the dirt distances are 5 1/2 furlongs for
sprinting and one-mile and 40 yards for routes. The total mix included some five- and
six-panel dashes, with a sprinkling of “about one-mile” and 1 1/16-mile races.
TRAINERS
Sending a small number of starters, Steve Margolis has gotten off to a
blazing start at Fair Grounds, winning at a 60 percent rate.
Next by win percentage comes Cody Autry at 39 percent. Eric Guillot is also
doing well with a 35 percent win clip. There is a four-way tie for third with Ed Johnson, Wes
Hawley, Merrill Scherer and Ken Bourgeois all at 25 percent.
Stabling up to 30 horses this meet, D. Wayne Lukas is participating in his first winter meet at
Fair Grounds, but he’s is not making a big impression upon the
conditioners’ community yet.
Autry led all trainers last week with four winners. Tom Amoss had three victors,
with Margolis, Albert Stall, John Barger, Scherer and Steve Asmussen doubling.
One of Steve’s two was a first-time starter; Joe Duhon also sent a debut winner
to the post.
STAKES
Saturday is Louisiana Champions Day (LCD) at Fair Grounds, with eight
restricted-stakes events for state-breds. The LCD Classic is worth $150,000. Six
others offer $100,000 purses each and one is worth $50,000. Here are our betting
choices, what we like best of them all.
The Classic is for three-year-olds and up at 1 1/8 miles on the main track.
While many eyes will be on STAR GUITAR (Quiet American) as he tries to win his
third event on an LCD card, we like TAKIN’ THE BULLET (Red Bullet) to break Star
Guitar’s four-race win streak.
In the LCD Ladies Sprint for three and up, a six-panel dash, MASTER LINK
(Dance Master) looks tough in her second race following a freshening. The
sophomore filly captured the LCD Lassie S. last year. In the LCD Turf
Handicap at 1 1/16 miles on the green, our choice is HIGH TONED (Zarbyev). The
five-year-old gelding had a tough early duel in his return race this November
and should be winging alone here. If they let this one loose, he won’t look
back.
In the LCD Ladies H. at 1 1/16 miles, we’ll go for MUFFIN (Smart Strike) to
redeem herself off of a third in the Magnolia S. at Delta Downs. And in the LCD Sprint at 6
furlongs, FLASHY WISE CAT looks appealing to us. Don’t be surprised if the four-year-old
colt fires earlier than usual.
HORSES TO WATCH
Thursday (12/3)
2ND — HAUNTED WATERS (Goodbye Doeny) raced well from the outside, stalking at
65-1 to finish fifth evenly.
3RD — SKY BREEZE (House Burner) made a good debut at 10-1, using speed four
wide.
7TH — CUPID’S HIT (High Cascade) is a bet back, winning a route in sharp
fashion at 6-1.
Friday (12/4)
3RD — GREAT PLANET (Planet Earth) was sharp coming from off the pace on a speedy
day and just missed to a 13-1 shot.
Saturday (12/5)
11TH — COLOR COMING IN (Ide) broke her maiden from off the pace on a front-speed day
and merits serious consideration stepping up to face winners next time.
Sunday (12/6)
5TH — KUTTER CREEK (Werblin) was rushed and lively to the stretch in this mile
grass event, though wide, and may continue to show more next time.
7TH — MONEIGH (Maria’s Mon) went a long trip on the green in this maiden special
weight. After racing wide and continuing to drive, though steadied, she finished
much better, outrunning her 10-1 odds.
10TH — OH BABY BABY (Littlebitlively) was five wide into the first turn before
being rushed into contention and tiring.
Monday (12/7)
7TH — AVA’S WILDCAT (Wildcat Shoes) posted a fine first-race performance from
the 11 post at 17-1, going quickly early.
9TH — MARSH ANGEL (Swamp) should have wired this group at 5-1, but she was beaten by
only one while clearly best of the rest and deserves a look again next time.