HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
APRIL 8, 2011
by Dick Powell
UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie) will try to run farther than he ever has before
when he contests the nine furlongs of the Wood Memorial S. (G1) on Saturday at
Aqueduct. Last year’s two-year-old champion and early favorite for this year’s
Kentucky Derby (G1) will face nine rivals in his second and final prep race for
the Run for the Roses.
To say that his nine rivals are overmatched would be an understatement. None
of them are graded stakes winners and only two of them are graded stakes-placed.
A $1 million purse and the efforts of the NYRA race office at least brought some
quantity to this year’s Wood as all the other Derby contenders decided to go
elsewhere. Can’t blame them.
Uncle Mo’s last race was four weeks ago in the Timely Writer S. at Gulfstream
which he won handily. Even though he went gate to wire, his BRIS Pace figures
were 54, 65 and 125. He showed an ability to relax early and finish strong which
is something he will need at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. He
came out of that race with two more half-mile breezes at Palm Meadows to
maintain his fitness and now Todd Pletcher stretches him out in only his fifth
career start.
One horse to watch in this year’s Wood is TOBY’S CORNER (Bellamy Road), who
was a good winner of the Whirlaway S. two starts back on a muddy inner dirt
track at Aqueduct. He earned a BRIS Speed rating of 103 that day which would
make him competitive with most of these. In his last start, he was third in the
Gotham S. (G3) when he was stuck behind a slow pace and tried to rally wide.
Trainer Graham Motion will add blinkers for the first time (16 percent when
he does) and he trains on the Tapeta training surface at Fair Hill each day
which should have him fit and ready. His sire, Bellamy Road, won the Wood
Memorial in 2005 by 17 lengths in 1:47 flat. His offspring are showing signs of
liking added distances and from an inside post, Toby’s Corner looks like the
best of the rest behind Uncle Mo.
Out at Santa Anita, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) is the most interesting race
of the weekend where a field of 11 is expected to contest the $1 million nine
furlong event. Unlike the Wood, the Santa Anita Derby is wide open with five
graded stakes winners in the field.
PREMIER PEGASUS (Fusaichi Pegasus) will probably go off as the favorite and
rightfully so. He’s done nothing wrong in five starts except running into THE
FACTOR (War Front) in the seven-furlong San Vicente S. (G2) when he could do no
better than third. Other than that, he has won all four of his prior starts
including a seven-length romp last out in the San Felipe S. (G2) going two turns
when blinkers were removed.
ANTHONY’S CROSS (Indian Charlie) is an interesting horse that poses an
analytical quandary. His win in the Robert Lewis S. (G2) only earned him a 93
BRIS Speed rating which doesn’t make him fast enough against some of these. What
makes that low speed rating all the more difficult to analyze is that it came in
a race that had a fast pace.
Often times I can find a silver lining in a low speed figure since it was
earned in a race where there was no pace — see Uncle Mo’s last race. But
Anthony’s Cross’ win in the Lewis came in a race where the pace was above
average so it was a race that saw a major deceleration. These kinds of races are
extremely hard to analyze and make projections so Anthony’s Cross will have to
show me more before I take him seriously.
A horse to watch is MR. COMMONS (Artie Schiller), who broke his maiden two
starts back in a downhill sprint on the turf and then came back to beat
first-level allowance foes in his dirt debut going a mile in fast time. He’s
come out of that race with a quintet of good workouts at Hollywood Park for John
Shirreffs including a spectacular seven furlong work in 1:23 and change.
What I liked about his allowance win was that he sat behind a very slow pace
(-16, -10) and rallied with a final pace figure of 104. His BRIS Speed rating
that day was 95 but I think it was a lot better than that with the pace scenario
against him. He’s only had three starts and is still eligible for big
improvement.
DIALED IN (Mineshaft) won the Florida Derby last Sunday. That’s what is known
in the journalism business as a simple, declarative sentence. Beyond that
sentence, anything goes.
It’s entirely possible that Dialed In is as good as he looked. He rallied
from dead last on a track that was kind to speed all meet and he lost ground on
the far turn making his move. He is willing to get dirt in his face and continue
running which many of his lightly-raced rivals still haven’t done. Nick Zito
knows how to get them ready for big races and Julien Leparoux fits him like a
glove.
He beat his four main rivals soundly which would normally be enough but the
question remains: why did he have so much trouble getting by 69-1 longshot
Shackleford (Forestry)? And, it’s not that Shackleford had an easy time of it on
the lead as he had to repulse one bid after another. When it looked like Dialed
In was going to go right past him, Shackleford dug in and battled to the wire.
But the questions about Dialed In are minimal compared to what the heck
happened to TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini), SOLDAT (War Front), STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini) and
FLASHPOINT (Pomeroy). How do you explain their defeats and do
any of them have any legitimate excuses for their woeful efforts to warrant them
continuing on the Derby Trail?
I know last year’s three Classic winners all lost their prior starts but none
were thrashed like these guys.