HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
AUGUST 26, 2005
by Dick Powell
Providing a $1 million guaranteed pool for a Pick-4 that includes the four
graded stakes at Saratoga sounds like a good idea, until the entries
come out for Saturday’s card and short fields ruled.
In the Fourstardave H. (G2), only six were entered. The Hopeful S. (G1) drew only
five while the King’s Bishop S. (G1) and Travers S. (G1) each drew seven runners. For a dollar ticket, you could play all with all with all with all
and it will only cost you $1,470 since there are only 1,470 combinations.
To give you an example for comparative purposes, Wednesday’s late Pick 4 had
4,320 possible combinations. Saturday’s Pick-4 is going to be chalky and at
least if you know that going in, you can act accordingly.
In the Fourstardave, only six older turfers were entered the 1 1/16-mile inner
turf event. SILVER TREE (Hennessy) was outkicked by Artie Schiller (El Prado
[Ire]) here last out, but he’s run well here before, including a fast
second-place effort in this race last year. The rail and Jerry Bailey will lower
the price even more.
Bobby Frankel ships in LEROIDESANIMAUX (Brz) (Candy Stripes) from California
looking for his fifth straight graded turf win. The five-year-old chestnut won
the Frank Kilroe Mile H. (G1) last out and earned a field-best BRIS Speed figure
of 114. He can run on or off the pace and look for Jon Court to put him on the
lead and dare the field to catch him. The rest of the runners look like they
would need the race to fall apart to have a shot.
This year’s renewal of the Fourstardave will be run on the inner turf course
unlike last year when it was run on the Mellon Turf Course. Why the New York
Racing Association continues to run graded races on the inner turf course when
the Mellon is available is beyond me.
HENNY HUGHES (Hennessy) has scared off most of his juvenile competition and
faces only four rivals in the Hopeful. He’s won all three starts by wide
margins and was sold before his last start for a reported $4.3 million to Darley
Stable. He’s been training brilliantly for Patrick Biancone and appears to have only two main rivals based on Speed figures.
TOO MUCH BLING (Rubiano) was beaten in his career debut in an Ohio-bred
stakes at River Downs then he came back to break his maiden by 19 1/2 lengths at
Thistledown, earning a BRIS Speed figure of 105. Who knows who he beat in the
race, but the time was so spectacular that he was purchased by Stonerside Stable
and is now in Bob Baffert’s barn. Workouts here for the gray colt indicate that
maiden win was no fluke.
FIRST SAMURAI (Giant’s Causeway) was a monster maiden winner at Churchill
then crushed first-level allowance foes here going six furlongs in very good
time. His 108 Speed figure that day is the best in the field and Bailey rides
back for Frank Brothers.
Henny Hughes will be a big favorite, but at least the Hopeful has some
intrigue. What is doesn’t have is depth.
The King’s Bishop loomed as the race of the meet when it looked like LOST IN
THE FOG (Lost Soldier) would meet BELLAMY ROAD (Concerto). Unfortunately, Lost
in the Fog is here but Bellamy Road has been entered in the Travers. Either way,
they scared off most of the competition.
Lost in the Fog has been training with a bar shoe on his left-rear hoof but
trainer Greg Gilchrist says he will not race in it. Undefeated in eight starts
and able to ship cross-country in a single bound, Lost in the Fog meets only
three horses that have graded wins on their resumes — STORM SURGE (Storm Cat),
FUSAICHI ROCK STAR (Wild Wonder) and SANTANA STRINGS (Wheaton). There’s no one
in here with his early speed so Russell Baze can take his time down the
backstretch and then turn up the pressure on the turn where Lost in the Fog wins
most of his races.
Storm Surge ran an underrated race in the Amsterdam S. (G2), when he chased a
fast pace down on the inside before weakening. He draws better today and should
improve in his second start off a layoff for Dallas Stewart.
The Travers now has seven entrants with the addition of Bellamy Road, who
drew the rail. His first two races this year were sensational and his Kentucky
Derby (G1) was a lot better than it looked considering that he was pressing an
incredibly fast pace while five wide. Right there turning for home, he had every
right to tire and he did. He suffered a minor leg injury in the race and his
timed workouts did not begin until July 16. Can a three-year-old come off a
112-day layoff with only six workouts and get 1 1/4 miles on a main track that
has been playing slow all meet?
If the answer is yes, the race is no contest since Bellamy Road is the most
talented colt of his crop — sorry Afleet Alex (Northern Afleet). If the answer
is no, this becomes a good race with the one-dimensional ANDROMEDA’S HERO
(Fusaichi Pegasus); ROMAN RULER (Fusaichi Pegasus), who has begun to live up to
last year’s hype with two strong wins this summer; DON’T GET MAD (Stephen Got
Even), whose closing tactics might fit well here; REVERBERATE (Thunder Gulch),
who has the right cruising speed to succeed at 10 furlongs and whose sire won
this race; and FLOWER ALLEY (Distorted Humor), who won the Jim Dandy (G2) and
has the huge advantage of a win over the track.
With fewer combinations due to the short fields, it doesn’t pay to spread
out. Could heavy favorites be upset and lead to a big, overlaid payoff? Of
course, but we aren’t going to bet on it. Instead, I recommend that you turn
this into a Pick 3 with at least two singles and hold down the number of
combinations that you play. Don’t even bother bringing your social security card
with you.
Let’s say you usually bet $100 on these nationally-televised Pick 4’s. For
Travers Day, your only hope is to bet more than usual with fewer horses and hope
that the guaranteed pool provides some overlays. If you play $10 Pick 4’s, and
if it pays twice the parlay, you might wind up getting around 4 to 6-1 on your
$100 investment. Remember, chalk has been dominating this meet and to go against
that grain could prove real costly.