BC Classic - Brisnet

Last updated: 10/28/05 1:44 PM

TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS

BREEDERS’ CUP CLASSIC (G1), 10TH-BEL, $4,000,000, 3YO/UP, 1 1/4M, 5:35 P.M. EDT, 10-29

PP	HORSE	TRAINER	JOCKEY	WT
1	ROCK HARD TEN	MANDELLA RICHARD E	STEVENS G L	126
2	SUN KING	ZITO NICHOLAS P	BEJARANO R	122
3	CHOCTAW NATION	MULLINS JEFF	ESPINOZA V	126
4	ORATORIO (IRE)	O’BRIEN AIDAN P	FALLON KIEREN	122
5	PERFECT DRIFT	JOHNSON MURRAY W	GUIDRY M	126
6	SIR SHACKLETON	ZITO NICHOLAS P	CASTELLANO J J	126
7	SUPER FROLIC	CERIN VLADIMIR	COA E M	126
8	SUAVE	MCGEE PAUL	PRADO E S	126
9	FLOWER ALLEY	PLETCHER TODD A	VELAZQUEZ J R	122
10	JACK SULLIVAN	BUTLER GERARD A	DETTORI LANFRAN	126
11	BORREGO	GREELY C BEAU	GOMEZ G K	126
12	A BIT O’GOLD	DAY-PHILLIPS CATHERI	JONES JONO	126
13	SAINT LIAM	DUTROW RICHARD E	BAILEY J D	126
14	STARCRAFT (NZ)	*CUMANI L M	VALENZUELA P A	126

The Breeders’ Cup program concludes with the 22nd running of the $4,680,000
Classic (G1), and 14 horses will head to the post for the 1 1/4-mile event.
Three top contenders — SAINT LIAM (Saint Ballado), BORREGO (El Prado [Ire]) and
STARCRAFT (NZ) (Soviet Star) — are stuck in outside posts, and ROCK HARD TEN
(Kris S.) was withdrawn on Friday after a problem with his right front hoof was
discovered by trainer Richard Mandella. PERFECT DRIFT (Dynaformer) is being completely overlooked off a fourth in the
Hawthorne Gold Cup (G2), but that race came over a sloppy track and we’re
willing to throw it out and give him the nod here.

The Grade 1-winning six-year-old ran well in his two starts before that,
winning the Washington Park H. (G2) and finishing second by a half-length in the
Pacific Classic (G1), and he’s a candidate to revert back to form with a top
showing on Saturday. Trained by Murray Johnson, the veteran gelding relishes 10
furlongs and finished a respectable fourth in last year’s Classic following a
wide trip. Perfect Drift drew a good post (5) this year and owns the tactical
speed to secure a perfect stalking position off a possible slow pace. We expect
him to rebound with a top showing under Mark Guidry.

Saint Liam is an obvious win contender, taking the Woodward S. (G1) in
authoritative fashion last out and capturing two other Grade 1 races this year,
but he will have to cut out a trip from post 13. The five-year-old also didn’t
run well in his only other attempt at 1 1/4 miles, and our fear is that the
Richard Dutrow charge prefers nine furlongs. However, Ghostzapper was able to earn his
first win at the distance at Lone Star Park, and Saint Liam is a threat to
follow in his hoofsteps. Saint Liam’s BRIS Speed and Late Pace ratings are
awesome, and he’ll be no surprise standing in the winner’s circle afterward.

Starcraft will make his dirt debut in the Classic
(Lauren Pomeroy/Horsephotos.com)

Borrego is also eligible to come away with the top prize
with his monstrous late kick, rallying to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and
Pacific Classic with breath-taking moves from far off the pace, and the Beau Greely trainee has improved greatly over the past few months. We still respect
his chances on Saturday and won’t leave him out of our wagers, but Borrego won’t
have the blistering early fractions up front that he received in his last two
outings and could come up short.

SUAVE (A.P. Indy) will be tested for class, but the improving four-year-old
brings a 2-1-0 mark from three starts into the race and finished a troubled
second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last time. He still has class concerns at
this level, but Suave owns good speed, winning the 1 1/4-mile Saratoga Breeders’
Cup H. (G2) wire-to-wire two starts back, and can sit a perfect trip close to
the pace from post 8. Edgar Prado is always dangerous, and Suave appears to be
entering the Classic on the upswing. We’ll use him on the bottom of our tickets.

CHOCTAW NATION (Louis Quatorze) looms as an attractive option for the bottom
of the exotics. The Jeff Mullins runner notched a 115 Late Pace rating in the
Goodwood last time, and the late runner was at a disadvantage with the lack of
front runners in the field. He won’t exactly get a hot pace on Saturday, but
things should set up much better for the five-year-old gelding. Choctaw Nation
hasn’t run his best races at this distance (3-0-0-1), but he’s faced top class
company in those starts and won’t get much respect in this spot. Consider for
part. FLOWER ALLEY (Distorted Humor) looked like a Classic contender winning the
Travers S. (G1), but the three-year-old unraveled in the Jockey Club Gold Cup
last out, refusing to rate and dueling on the front end with a stablemate who
was entered as a rabbit. We think he’ll have a hard time bouncing back off that
effort, but the chestnut does own good early speed and could try to set the pace
under John Velazquez. He could get confident if he gets clear, but we’re willing
to look for better things next year from Flower Alley.

Starcraft brings outstanding European form into the Classic and could
challenge if he handles the switch to the main track, but we don’t like him
breaking from post 14 and worry that 10 furlongs isn’t his best distance. The
five-year-old horse clearly owns a ton of talent, but he may not be able to
overcome his poor starting position. ORATORIO (Ire) (Danehill) is a confirmed
10-furlong horse, winning prestigious Group 1 races at the distance this year,
but the three-year-old doesn’t own a promising pedigree for the main track.
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has had success transferring horses to the main track in
the Breeders’ Cup (Johannesburg and Giant’s Causeway), but those runners
probably had more going for them than Oratorio. We wouldn’t be surprised to see
this classy colt carry his form to the main track and finish up well for a top-three
placing, but Oratorio is probably best to watch in his U.S. debut.

SUN KING (Charismatic) will likely show speed from post 2, winning the
Leonard Richards S. (G3) and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in wire-to-wire fashion and
finishing second in the Haskell after setting the pace. Jockey Rafael Bejarano
may be able to get away with soft fractions up front and we like the sophomore
colt’s recent form, but 10 furlongs looks too far for the dark bay. Sun King
remains a threat to hold on for a minor award at long odds, so we can’t dismiss his
chances completely. SIR SHACKLETON (Miswaki) took second in the Woodward, but
the four-year-old has been no factor in two starts at this distance. We can’t
recommend his chances at this level.

SUPER FROLIC (Pine Bluff) earned a berth in this race with a victory in the
Hawthorne Gold Cup, but he figures to regress greatly off that race against
these rivals. A BIT O’GOLD (Gold Fever) ships in from Canada and could add to
the pace, but he doesn’t look fast enough to be anywhere close at the finish.
JACK SULLIVAN (Belong to Me) was no match for rivals of this caliber in the
Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) and hasn’t run well since then. He looks extremely
unlikely.

TRACK BANDIT SELECTIONS:		1st-PERFECT DRIFT
		2nd-SAINT LIAM
		3rd-BORREGO