INTERNATIONALS IN THE
BREEDERS’ CUP
NOVEMBER 1, 2012
Breeders’ Cup Friday
European invaders have found Santa Anita a happy hunting ground
in Breeders’ Cups past, and for the 29th edition, the international presence is
further bolstered by representatives from South America and Japan.
Here’s the scouting report on the raiding party set for Friday,
with another feature to follow on Saturday’s foreign hopes.
Juvenile Sprint
CEILING KITTY — Tom Dascombe filly doesn’t fit the profile of
Shumoos, an English shipper who was a terrific second in last year’s inaugural
Juvenile Sprint in her dirt debut. While Shumoos had the pedigree to move up on
dirt, and strong form at six furlongs, Ceiling Kitty’s pedigree is heavily
tilted toward turf, and she looks better at five furlongs. At that shorter trip,
she just missed equaling a juvenile course record in her 20-1 upset of the Queen
Mary at Royal Ascot, and she finished fourth versus males in the Flying Childers
at Doncaster. The Flying Childers form looks solid, with the winner Sir
Prancealot having previously chased the unbeaten duo of Reckless Abandon and
Dawn Approach, and the runner-up being two-time Group 3 victor Bungle
Inthejungle. But Ceiling Kitty didn’t fare as well when stepping up to six
furlongs in the Cheveley Park last out, where she wound up seventh. Note also
that her co-owner is Betfair founder Andrew Black, who gave away a half-interest
in the filly as part of a betting competition (which is why her other co-owners
are listed as the Master Bettors). This placement might have more to do with a
nice day out for the partners in the backyard of Betfair affiliate TVG than a
serious win proposition, but it’s hard to discount exotics chances in such a
short field.
Marathon
CALIDOSCOPIO — A Group performer for a remarkable six straight
years at home in Argentina, this nine-year-old warhorse has spent most of his
career on dirt. He has also won over as far as 1 7/8 miles on turf, so his
stamina is unquestioned. Calidoscopio earned his Breeders’ Cup ticket by
sweeping fast and late on the outside to capture the Clasico General Belgrano at
about 1 9/16 miles on June 23, and he has reportedly been training well at Santa
Anita in advance of this assignment. Although it’s generally good policy to
treat South American form with caution, the Marathon is such an outlier in the
U.S. context, and a venture into the unknown for European stayers on dirt, that
a classy South American could actually have an advantage here. Calidoscopio has
traded decisions with reigning Argentinean Horse of the Year Expressive Halo as
well as star stayer Mr. Nedawi, who was at one time mulling the 2011 Marathon.
His trainer has been listed as Guillermo Frankel, but according to ElTurf.com,
it’s actually Frenkel. The U.S. spelling variant might be a good omen.
FAME AND GLORY — A curious conclusion to an otherwise honorable
career for this high-class son of Montjeu, who has ranked among the best of his
generation at two, three and four, and became Europe’s champion stayer at the
age of five. The Aidan O’Brien charge has compiled an exceptional resume,
landing the 2009 Irish Derby, beating all bar the great Sea the Stars in the
Derby at Epsom, winning the 2010 Coronation Cup and the 2011 Ascot Gold Cup. His
2012 campaign hasn’t been up to his usual standards, however, and he folded
rather tamely when fifth in the British Champions Long Distance Cup in his
latest. Had Fame and Glory performed as expected there, he would never have come
here. O’Brien made the last-minute decision to try the Marathon and add
blinkers, mentioning that the six-year-old just stopped trying on the soft
ground last out. The blinkers-on gambit didn’t work with So You Think (a horse
in much sharper form) in last year’s Classic, and even more worrisome, a
successful transition to dirt appears highly unlikely based on his pedigree. As
a longtime fan of Fame and Glory, I’d like nothing better than to be wrong, and
watch him go out in style. But this has all the sad earmarks of one last stab
before retirement.
SENSE OF PURPOSE — Onetime Melbourne Cup hopeful is another
whose season hasn’t lived up to its promise. The Dermot Weld trainee was at the
top of her game in 2011, rating as Ireland’s highweight older mare from 11 to 14
furlongs, but has been disappointing in two of three starts this year. Yet she
has had excuses, ranging from desperately bad ground, to massive weight, and
last time, an equipment change to a tongue tie that (theoretically) might have
backfired. Considering that she’s a small mare, carrying imposts of up to 138
pounds — versus males no less — must be crushing. Sense of Purpose now gets in
with a feathery 123, and that alone could help her. In her best effort of 2012,
she was a close fourth in the Lenebane at Roscommon, form that ties in very well
with the Irish St Leger and with her stablemate Galileo’s Choice, who runs in
Monday night’s Melbourne Cup. Three-fourths of her pedigree makes her a dubious
quantity on dirt, but her female line has plenty of American ancestry, and this
1 3/4-mile trip is ideal for her. Post 13 did her no favors, but she has shown a
good deal of tactical speed in the past.
ALMUDENA — Peruvian champion mare tackles this distance for the
first time, but is a real grinder who has been staying on dourly at the end of
her 1 1/2-mile races. She has also shown the ability to take her game on the
road to Argentina, most recently placing in a pair of Group 1 events there.
Almudena looked stronger in her third to the classy male Al Qasr in the Gran
Premio 25 de Mayo, a Challenge race for the Breeders’ Cup Turf, than she did in
her prior two races on dirt, where she was outpaced. Indeed, after scoring a
Peruvian classic victory on dirt in 2010, Almudena threw in a few subpar efforts
on the surface, but turned things around when switched to turf. If she gets into
a comfortable rhythm, she keeps going relentlessly. Whether she’ll be able to
find that comfort zone in a U.S. dirt race is another question. She was run off
her feet in the Gran Premio Latinoamericano, albeit in a much faster pace
scenario than what’s on tap here. Unlike the true dirt aficionado Calidoscopio,
Almudena shapes up as perhaps better on the turf, but her never-say-die attitude
is a real plus.
Juvenile Fillies Turf
SKY LANTERN — Impressive winner of the Moyglare Stud Stakes is
the deserving favorite. Yet another top-notcher from the Richard Hannon juvenile
academy, Sky Lantern has never finished worse than a close second in her
five-race career. Her first loss came at the hands of Certify, who beat her by a
length in the Sweet Solera at Newmarket. Certify has since gone on to crown her
perfect season with a runaway victory in the Fillies’ Mile, stamping herself as
the early favorite for next spring’s One Thousand Guineas. Sky Lantern next went
down by just a half-length in the Prestige at Goodwood, where she appeared a
little uneasy on the undulating course. She bounced back with a vengeance in the
Moyglare Stud at the Curragh, displaying a smart turn of foot to prevail
handily. The form was subsequently boosted by fourth-placer Magical Dream, who
came back to take the C.L. Weld Park. Sky Lantern intended to step up to a mile
in the Prix Marcel Boussac, but was ruled out by the heavy ground at Longchamp.
Judging by the way she handled the Curragh’s more demanding seven furlongs, a
flat mile around Santa Anita should pose no difficulty, and the firm turf is
exactly what she needs. She whizzed around the turns at Kempton to prepare, to
the delight of assistant trainer Richard Hannon Jr., who has tabbed her as the
yard’s best-ever chance in the Breeders’ Cup.
FLOTILLA — Better-than-appears fourth in the Marcel Boussac
looms as a legitimate candidate to spring an upset. Based in France with Mikel
Delzangles, Flotilla broke her maiden at the lesser venue of Clairefontaine, but
proved that she could hold her own at a higher level. She was a closing fifth in
the Prix d’Aumale, and despite being blocked on the rail at a crucial juncture
in the Marcel Boussac, she kept on for a creditable fourth in atrocious ground.
Flotilla has yet to encounter anything better than soft turf, but her pedigree
suggests that she’ll move up considerably on a firm course. Both her sire and
dam raced in France before finding their biggest successes in Southern
California — she is by Mizzen Mast, who became a star on dirt, and out of
Louvain, winner of a Grade 3 and two other stakes on this circuit. Louvain
concluded her career with a victory in the 2005 Harold C. Ramser over this very
course and distance.
INFANTA BRANCA — O’Brien filly was unfortunately relegated to
the also-eligible list, but is far better than her 15-1 morning-line odds imply.
A sharp prospect very early in the season, she defeated one of Jim Bolger’s
tough colts, Leitir Mor, to become the first winner for her freshman sire
Henrythenavigator. Leitir Mor has progressed over a busy campaign, and just
finished second to his presumptive champion stablemate Dawn Approach in the
Dewhurst. Infanta Branca was next third to another useful colt, Cay Verde, as
the favorite in the Marble Hill. Cay Verde, subsequently the beaten favorite in
the Norfolk at Royal Ascot, has since won a French Group 3 and placed in a pair
of Group 2s. Infanta Branca looked like a filly to follow over the summer, but
she was sidelined for 4 1/2 months. She just returned with an encouraging fourth
to stablemate Lines of Battle (who runs in Saturday’s Juvenile Turf) in the
seven-furlong Star Appeal over Dundalk’s Polytrack. With that tightener under
her belt, Infanta Branca is entitled to improve substantially here, for she is
bred to prosper at a mile on firm turf. The half-sister to Lil’s Lad, the 1997
Champagne runner-up and 1998 Fountain of Youth winner, only needs to draw into
the field.
WATERWAY RUN — American-bred daughter of Arch is bred to
improve with age and distance, and it’s a positive sign that she’s already
progressed in a short time. The rate of her advancement can be neatly measured
through her rival Light Up My Life. In a two-year-old handicap (called a
nursery) in August, Waterway Run was only fourth behind Light Up My Life, who
set a new juvenile course record for seven furlongs over Newmarket’s July
Course. But last time out in the Oh So Sharp Stakes, Waterway Run finished with
a flourish to catch her by a half-length. Waterway Run has plenty of early speed
— she wired a nursery at York two starts back, and traveled very smoothly while
stalking the pace in the Oh So Sharp. While a strict reading of the collateral
form suggests that she’s a fair bit behind Sky Lantern, it’s not easy to get a
firm fix on a moving target like Waterway Run. Her trainer Ralph Beckett won the
inaugural Marathon with Muhannak here in 2008, and she picks up the services of
the newly freelance Frankie Dettori.
THE GOLD CHEONGSAM — The daughter of Red Clubs has the same
sire as Sky Lantern, but that’s about as close as she can come to the favorite.
Like Waterway Run, The Gold Cheongsam has come up through the nursery scene, but
unlike that opponent, she has yet to break through at the Group level. Shrewdly
spotted by trainer Jeremy Noseda, she plundered the lucrative Weatherbys
Insurance versus males, but principally by means of a 15-pound weight concession
from the runner-up. The Gold Cheongsam was put in her place when last of 11 in
the Cheveley Park, but to be fair, she didn’t have a clean trip. She turned in a
more characteristic effort when third in the Tattersalls Millions, but that
sales race — restricted to certain Tattersalls graduates — is not comparable
to this type of test.
Filly & Mare Turf
THE FUGUE — If trainer John Gosden could write his own
conditions for a major international prize for The Fugue, it would be precisely
this: a 1 1/4-mile affair on firm turf. In both of her races at roughly this
trip, she has looked world-class. The Dansili filly ran out an authoritative 4
1/2-length winner of the Musidora, propelling herself into favoritism for the
Oaks. At Epsom, unfortunately, she was nearly wiped out at one point, and did
well to recover for third in the 1 1/2-mile classic. The Fugue revealed her true
ability back at 1 1/4 miles in the Nassau at Glorious Goodwood. Rating kindly
off a non-existent pace, she was cruising down the stretch while her rivals were
under pressure. The Fugue produced an electric burst of speed once finally given
the green light, turning a Group 1 event into a one-filly show. She has raced
just once since, in the 1 1/2-mile Yorkshire Oaks, where she quickened to strike
the front, but was ultimately outstayed in the waning yards by Turf contender
Shareta. The Fugue’s only hints of vulnerability have come on soft ground or at
1 1/2 miles, but neither is an issue here. Even the projected moderate pace
shouldn’t be a hindrance, for a three-furlong dash for home would suit her just
fine.
I’M A DREAMER — David Simcock trainee might be overlooked
following a troubled fourth in the Flower Bowl, but she had previously upset
Marketing Mix in the Beverly D. I’m a Dreamer capitalized on a perfect trip to
deny the unlucky Marketing Mix, but in the Flower Bowl, her luck deserted her. A
touch slow to begin, she was further compromised by having to steady and regroup
at the top of the stretch. I’m a Dreamer still made some late progress on
yielding ground that isn’t her favorite. Her most visually impressive victory
came on good-to-firm turf, in the 2011 Dahlia at Newmarket. Since stepping up to
about this distance, she has literally yet to run a bad race. Just nailed late
in the 2011 E.P. Taylor, she has twice finished third to the high-class Izzi Top
(when meeting interference in the Middleton and on wretched ground in the Pretty
Polly) and was also fourth to males in the Brigadier Gerard. That represents a
solid standard of European form: Brigadier Gerard winner Carlton House was
subsequently runner-up to So You Think in the Prince of Wales’s at Royal Ascot;
the Brigadier Gerard placegetters Sagramor and Hunter’s Light have also
performed well; and the fifth-placer, Colombian, grabbed third in the Arlington
Million.
NAHRAIN — Last year’s Filly & Mare Turf runner-up will probably
appreciate the fact that this renewal is a furlong shorter, with Santa Anita’s
configuration permitting 1 1/4 miles as opposed to the 1 3/8 miles at Churchill
Downs. Trainer Roger Varian deliberately took it easy with her in the first half
of this season, preferring to have her peak at this time, and he has timed it
just right. After two poor efforts over the summer, Nahrain turned the corner
with an encouraging third in the Blandford, and regained the winning thread with
a spearing late thrust in the Flower Bowl. On the negative side of the ledger,
however, the daughter of Selkirk might have thrived better than her Filly & Mare
Turf rivals Zagora and I’m a Dreamer in the yielding conditions. She also
appeared to hang, until Dream Peace ranged up on her outside, and she responded
to the stimulus. Johnny Velazquez recommended blinkers, which will be added to
Nahrain’s equipment for the first time. Will that have the desired effect, or
will the headgear cause a different set of issues, especially in a paceless
race?
RIDASIYNA — On paper, the Aga Khan homebred has outstanding
credentials, thanks to her emphatic 3 1/2-length defeat of Izzi Top in the Prix
de l’Opera last time out. Yet there’s a nagging suspicion that Ridasiyna
exploited a particular set of circumstances that won’t be repeated here. Izzi
Top stalked the taxing tempo, drove to the lead prematurely, and was a sitting
duck in the heavy ground. The more patiently-ridden Ridasiyna stayed on strongly
in the conditions, not so much with a dazzling turn of foot, as simply slogging
more powerfully through the Longchamp mud. It should also be noted that she had
an equipment change that day, sporting headgear for the first time, in hopes of
calming her fragile nerves that had cost her dearly in her only loss.
Immediately following the Opera, trainer Mikel Delzangles was not inclined to
try the Breeders’ Cup: “She is not a filly with which you would want to travel
so far.”
UP — O’Brien filly is probably better than her sixth-place
effort in the Beverly D., where she adopted pace-forcing tactics that don’t work
to her benefit. The hardy three-year-old has run 10 times this season, most of
them reasonably good performances. Arguably her finest two came after she got
home from Chicago, when she posted back-to-back wins in the Lanwades Stud
Fillies Stakes and Blandford at the Curragh, beating a still-rounding-into-form
Nahrain in the latter. Up’s progress appeared to be stymied with a sixth in the
Sun Chariot at Newmarket last out, but that might not be the case. She was
dropping back markedly in trip to a mile, in a race that could have simply given
her something to do before the Breeders’ Cup. The pattern is somewhat
reminiscent of O’Brien’s smart filly last year, Together, who wheeled back in
the Sun Chariot, flopped, but came back with a bang at Keeneland. Note too that
Up has already crashed the Breeders’ Cup exotics — in the 2011 Juvenile Fillies
Turf, she got up for fourth at odds of 21-1.