PREAKNESS REPORT
MAY 6, 2010
by James Scully
Before getting into the prospective Preakness S. (G1) field, here’s a brief
recap of the Kentucky Derby (G1):
SUPER SAVER (Maria’s Mon) will go down in the history books as the 136th
winner of the Kentucky Derby, but the big story was Calvin Borel, who
became the first jockey to capture three Derbies in a four-year span. After
orchestrating rail-hugging theatrics from the caboose of the field aboard Street
Sense (2007) and Mine That Bird (Birdstone) (2009), Borel hustled Super Saver
from the start, securing a spot close to the pace along the rail, with
remarkably no horses directly in front of him, as he entered the first turn.
Sixth after a half-mile, Super Saver settled behind a blistering pace that
favored closers — he was the only horse in the top 10 after three-quarters of a
mile to finish in the top four at the wire. And the WinStar homebred scored in
hand by a two-length margin, with Borel easing up in deep stretch as he
celebrated for the crowd.
The 43-year-old Cajun brings a confidence level that horses thrive upon at
Churchill Downs and nobody can stop him from excelling on the rail in
Louisville, Kentucky. At least Martin Garcia made him navigate around a tiring
CONVEYANCE (Indian Charlie) before Borel quickly got back to the shortest route;
the rest of the jockeys seemed overmatched. The connections of runner-up ICE BOX
(Pulpit), third-placer PADDY O’PRADO (El Prado [Ire]) and sixth-placed favorite
LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike) can point to the videotape and lament terrible
trips, but the biggest difference was they didn’t have Borel.
A Grade 2 winner at two, Super Saver improved in each of his prep races,
finishing third by a half-length in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) prior to a head
second in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Credit is also due to the outstanding
preparation of horseman Todd Pletcher, who registered his first Derby score.
Super Saver is regally bred with room for further improvement and Derby winners
often carry their form forward at Pimlico, with seven of the last 13 garnering
the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. The 1 1/2-mile Belmont S. (G1) is a whole
different beast.
Preakness contenders
Super Saver registered a 105 BRIS Speed rating in the Derby, the lowest
number since Giacomo (100) in 2005 but five points higher than his previous
career-best, and his recent Speed numbers on fast tracks (99-99-100) are very
respectable this year. Borel is the man at Churchill, but he won the 2009
Preakness aboard Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d’Oro) and will be focused on the
task at hand with Super Saver, who provides multiple options with his quick turn
of foot and ability to rate. I don’t underestimate Super Saver’s chances at
Pimlico, but he’ll be overbet with Borel in the saddle.
Lookin at Lucky earned a career-best 102 Speed rating when garnering the
Rebel S. (G2) over a fast track at Oaklawn Park and trained splendidly at
Churchill Downs in preparation for the Derby. He got bounced around early and
experienced a terrible trip beneath Garrett Gomez, who repeatedly finds trouble
with the talented colt, and Lookin at Lucky has been anything but lucky in his
last four starts. In the last 20 years, four beaten Derby favorites — Point Given, Timber Country, Prairie Bayou
and Hansel — came back to win the
middle jewel, and Lookin at Lucky could add his name to that list.
Derby runner-up Ice Box is expected to wait for the Belmont. Jockey Jose Lezcano left the late runner with too much to do in the
stretch at Churchill Downs, altering course several times as Ice Box closed
diagonally through the stretch. However, the Preakness might have been his best option since the 1
1/2-mile Belmont seldom sets up well for deep closers.
JACKSON BEND (Hear No Evil), who was shuffled back early and wound up 12th in
the Derby, will be an intriguing longshot in Baltimore. The hard-trying colt
never got the chance to run last time, recording the first unplaced finish in
his career, but we’ve seen Zito work his magic with overlooked horses in the
Triple Crown. Everybody remembers Da’ Tara and Birdstone, who spoiled the Triple
Crown bids of Big Brown and Smarty Jones, respectively, at Belmont Park, but
I’ll put the spotlight on 1996 Preakness hero Louis Quatorze, who bounced back
from a 16th in the Derby to post an unexpected wire-to-wire Preakness win. Like
Jackson Bend, who raced close to the pace before settling for minor awards in
the Wood Memorial S. (G1), Fountain of Youth S. (G2) and Holy Bull S. (G3), Louis
Quatorze wasn’t a confirmed front runner. I expect to see Jackson Bend cranked
for speed next Saturday.
Paddy O’Prado is on the fence for Dale Romans and will move up if the track
comes up wet for the Preakness. His future probably lies on grass/synthetics,
and the same can be said for MAKE MUSIC FOR ME (Bernstein), who is also under
Preakness consideration following his fourth-place effort in the Derby. Make
Music for Me raced in 19th most of the way last time, one spot better than Ice Box
during the early stages of the race. Derby fifth-placer NOBLE’S PROMISE (Cuvee)
will once again face distance questions if entered, and seventh-placer DUBLIN
(Afleet Alex) will need to discover another gear in order to pass horses in the
stretch.
Of the new shooters, The Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial S. (G3) winner HURRICANE IKE
(Graeme Hall) immediately catches my eye with BRIS Speed ratings of 105 and 103
in his last two starts. I don’t know if the Florida-bred will like 1 3/16 miles
with his pedigree, but he’s headed in the right direction for John Sadler.
SCHOOLYARD DREAMS (Stephen Got Even) and CARACORTADO (Cat Dreams) are a couple
of interesting prospects who will merit respect for at least a top three
placing.
I’ll give my final analysis and selections next week.