KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
APRIL 8, 2015
by James Scully
Dortmund (Big Brown) and Carpe Diem (Giant’s Causeway) enhanced strong
resumes in their final Kentucky Derby prep races, romping in the Santa Anita
Derby (G1) and Blue Grass (G1), respectively, and Frosted (Tapit) rebounded from
a disappointing performance in the Fountain of Youth (G2) to capture the
TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial (G1).
One major prep race remains, this Saturday’s Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn
Park featuring two-year-old champion and leading Kentucky Derby contender
American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile). Saturday’s Lexington (G2) at Keeneland is
also on the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule but offers only 17 points
(10-4-2-1).
Santa Anita Derby
Dortmund lost a shoe when taking an awkward step leaving the starting gate
but flashed forward from his rail post to show the way into the first turn. He
was up by a length entering the backstretch and controlled the pace the entire
way, accelerating clear into the stretch as he rolled home much the best.
The Bob Baffert-trained colt left a well-regarded group of rivals in
shambles.
Dortmund’s BRIS Speed ratings have increased in every start this year. He
registered his first triple-digit number (101) posting a game head decision over
Firing Line (Line of David) in the February 7 Robert B. Lewis (G2) and a 102 for
his facile wire-to-wire score in the March 7 San Felipe (G2).
His 4 1/4-length Santa Anita Derby victory resulted in an excellent 106 Speed
rating. The massive chestnut appeared to lose some focus in deep stretch,
negotiating the final eighth of a mile in 13 seconds, but he didn’t need to run
any faster given the circumstances and jockey Martin Garcia had the luxury to
try and save something for Churchill Downs.
His pedigree may not be ideal for 1 1/4 miles but it’s suitable, and
Dortmund’s a long-striding beast of a three-year-old with terrific form. He’s
going to take some beating on Derby Day.
One concern surrounds his propensity for speed — Dortmund was more tractable
at two but he’s been determined to get to the early lead in all three starts
this year. I think he surprised Garcia when powering his way forward on the
first turn of the Lewis and his BRIS Early Pace ratings have risen in each
outing, posting a 111 E1 and 118 E2 in the Santa Anita Derby.
The same front-running style isn’t practical for the Kentucky Derby — the
last thing Baffert wants to see is the speedy American Pharoah and Dortmund
going head to head in the early stages — and Dortmund remains eligible to
revert to stalking tactics. He probably won’t be far too far back if he does
settle, ideally in the second or third flight waiting to pounce, and there will
be plenty of speculation surrounding his trip, especially after post positions
are drawn.
One Lucky Dane (Lookin at Lucky) stamped his Kentucky Derby ticket finishing
second and the inexperienced Baffert trainee registered his first triple-digit
BRIS Speed rating (101) as well. After impressively breaking his maiden in his
initial dirt start last fall, the bay colt jumped straight to stakes company with
a sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) but wasn’t seen again until March 19,
returning with a 9 3/4-length, wire-to-wire tally over allowance foes.
He came back three weeks later in a tough spot, racing in second through the
early stages of the Santa Anita Derby before being passed on the far turn, and
appeared extremely vulnerable at that point. But One Lucky Dane re-rallied in
the final furlongs to finish 2 1/4-lengths clear of third, gaining valuable
seasoning in the process.
I don’t know whether he can take another step forward in a speed-laden
Kentucky Derby field, but One Lucky Dane is very promising.
Bolo (Temple City) overcame a wide trip in the short field to edge Prospect
Park (Tapit) by a neck for third. He likely guaranteed himself a spot in the
Kentucky Derby field, increasing his points’ total to 30, but trainer Carla
Gaines and jockey Mike Smith suggested otherwise, saying he is better on grass
and probably headed back to the turf racing instead of the Triple Crown.
Kent Desormeaux did Prospect Park no favors with an odd ride, keeping him in
tight quarters throughout in a six-horse field, but Prospect Park had little to
offer in the stretch drive. This wasn’t the positive performance supporters were
expecting in advance of a serious Kentucky Derby bid.
After racing within three lengths of the pacesetter, Prospect Park suddenly
began losing ground as he retreated to last on the far turn. He came again with
another brief run but instead of being angled to the outside of horses,
Desormeaux advanced into a wall of runners and was forced to wait before being
guiding his mount to the inside. Prospect Park finished evenly to be part of a
three-horse photo with Bolo and fifth-placer Cross the Line (Line of David).
I will say in his defense this was the third straight troubled trip for
Prospect Park this year. He lacked the same finishing kick from his two previous
outings, a smart win over allowance rivals and a runner-up in the San Felipe,
but he can close, registering a 107 Late Pace figure in the San Felipe.
The Kentucky Derby will feature a different set-up, with much more pace and a
full field of 20, and Prospect Park won’t be wasting any early energy as he
attempts to make one run from far behind. There’s a lot of speed lining up and
few late runners of merit, and I’m not eliminating the possibility Prospect Park
can make an impact with a better set-up than he’s received in prep races.
Blue Grass
Carpe Diem made short work of his Blue Grass rivals, winning by three
comfortable lengths. Johnny Velazquez waited until the top of the stretch to
give his mount the cue and the race was quickly over as Carpe Diem rolled
unopposed to the wire.
A dominant winner of last year’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland and a
non-threatening second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Santa Anita, Carpe
Diem entered 2015 as one of the leading Kentucky Derby contenders. He’s been
handled judiciously by trainer Todd Pletcher, cruising to a five-length victory
in the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) prior to the Blue Grass, and the well-bred
sophomore seemingly has plenty in the tank for another step forward May 2.
He figures to be the third betting choice behind Dortmund and American
Pharoah (assuming the latter captured the Arkansas Derby).
Carpe Diem didn’t defeat any top three-year-olds in the Tampa Bay Derby and
the Blue Grass competition left a lot to be desired.
Runner-up Danzig Moon (Malibu Moon) improved off his Tampa Bay Derby fourth
and the February 7 maiden winner may continue to develop for Mark Casse, but he
could easily find himself outclassed on Derby Day. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Street Sense)
is more of a miler presently and was out of gas in the final furlong of the Blue
Grass, but he managed to save third. Fourth-placer Frammento (Midshipman) isn’t
close to the upper echelon of his division right now.
Carpe Diem broke sharply and was under a tight hold as Ocho Ocho Ocho left
the gate a half-step slowly, and Velazquez floated his mount a little wide into
the first turn to allow Ocho Ocho Ocho to take the early lead to his inside.
Carpe Diem was always close and stuck a head in front between calls early on the
backstretch before being wrestled back — Velazquez could’ve easily led wire to
wire if he wanted.
All four of Carpe Diem’s wins have come in front-running fashion — the only
time he broke poorly was in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He experienced a wide
trip on both turns that afternoon before closing to edge Upstart (Flatter) by a
nose in the final strides, 6 1/4 lengths back of the winning Texas Red (Afleet
Alex).
Connections are confident Carpe Diem will settle toward midpack if the
Kentucky Derby pace is hot but I’m not so certain — he possesses a lot of
natural speed like Dortmund. Carpe Diem’s BRIS Speed numbers are a little lower
than Dortmund’s, registering a 96 in the Tampa Bay Derby and a 102 in the Blue
Grass, but as mentioned previously he appears to have room for improvement next
time.
It will be interesting to see whether he’ll relax nicely if he breaks well in
the Kentucky Derby because Carpe Diem looks poised to deliver a formidable
showing if he gets the trip.
Wood
Frosted put himself back in the Kentucky Derby picture, recording his first
stakes win as he rallied from behind slow fractions to win going away by two
lengths.
The gray colt broke his maiden on the main track at Aqueduct last October and
concluded his juvenile season with a good second in the Remsen (G2) over the
same oval, and Frosted finished second as the favorite to Upstart when making
his 2015 bow in the January 24 Holy Bull (G2) at Gulfstream Park.
The wheels appeared to come off in a puzzling Fountain of Youth performance,
with Frosted turning for home with a short lead before throwing his head up in
the air and shutting it down in upper stretch, but the Kiaran McLaughlin-trained
colt underwent a preventative throat surgery afterward and came back a different
horse on Saturday.
Frosted took back at the break and was briefly last among seven runners
rounding the clubhouse turn while wide. He moved closer down the backstretch and
continued to edge forward on the far turn. Jockey Joel Rosario always appeared
to have plenty of horse as Frosted overhauled Tencendur (Warrior’s Reward) with
about a sixteenth of a mile remaining.
Tencendur was up close from the start on the moderate pace (:24 2/5 and :49)
and parlayed a perfect trip to a short lead at the top of the stretch, and the
surprising runner-up (21-1 odds) tried to fight back in midstretch before
Frosted rolled by. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy) spotted his rivals too much ground at
the tail of the field, two lengths back of sixth after the opening six furlongs,
and rallied belatedly to be a clear third while never threatening the top two.
The Wood has made no impact on the Kentucky Derby since 2003, when Funny Cide
and Empire Maker finished 1-2 at Churchill Downs, and legitimate questions
surround the quality of this year’s edition. But Frosted has something going for
him, registering a 107 BRIS Speed rating Saturday that could be the top
last-race figure in this year’s Kentucky Derby field.
By leading sire Tapit, the Godolphin homebred hails from a classy female
family — his Deputy Minister dam, Fast Cookie, is a half-sister to champion
Midshipman — and the colt’s stalking style could prove beneficial given the
preponderance of speedy types being assembled for the Kentucky Derby.
And I don’t want to underestimate the benefits of his throat surgery —
Alysheba was only a maiden winner when he underwent the same procedure prior to
finishing first in the 2007 Blue Grass (disqualified for interference) and he
kept improving with an 8-1 upset in the Kentucky Derby.
Frosted still faces a tall task given the quality at the top this year, but
he rates as an intriguing contender off this encouraging win.
Upcoming
Seven horses are listed as probable for the Arkansas Derby and American
Pharoah will be an odds-on favorite. The talented front-runner has reeled off
three straight convincing stakes wins, including the March 14 Rebel (G2) at
Oaklawn, and two-time Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Victor Espinoza has the
assignment.