BC Previews 2006

BERNARDINI (A.P. Indy) is the biggest star on Saturday’s $20 million,
eight-race Breeders’ Cup program, and the outstanding three-year-old will face
12 rivals in the 1 1/4-mile Classic (G1). A wire-to-wire winner in both the
Travers S. (G1) and Jim Dandy (G2), Bernardini is versatile enough to rate,
winning both the Preakness S. (G1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) from just off
the pace, and he’ll likely be tracking the early speed on Saturday before
offering his best.

Bernardini is the probable heavy favorite in the Classic (Lauren Pomeroy/Horsephotos.com) The Darley Stable homebred owns dazzling acceleration, seemingly exploding off the far turn to a clear lead before cantering to the wire in most of his starts, and he’ll bring a six-race winning skein into the Classic, winning those starts by a combined 40 lengths. Trained by Tom Albertrani, Bernardini has been able to earn BRIS Speed ratings of 116, 114 and 111 (twice) despite not being asked for his best in the latter stages of his races, and he’s a fresh horse, having only started three times since winning the Preakness in mid-May. The bay colt appears to be training superbly in preparation for his final career start, and we believe he can overcome all obstacles to prove best. INVASOR (Arg) (Candy Stripes) owns the perfect run style with all the speed in the field, and the stalker is unbeaten in three U.S. starts. The Kiaran McLaughlin pupil has earned excellent BRIS Speed, E2 and Late Pace numbers in each of those appearances, and his most impressive victory, a 4 1/4-length score in the Suburban H. (G1) that netted him a 118 BRIS Speed rating, came at 10 furlongs. Invasor owns a winning attitude (eight-for-nine overall), and the 91-day layoff isn’t a concern because he’s run well off the layoff before. Jockey Fernando Jara will be able to secure perfect placement during the early stages from his outside post, and Invasor is the most likely horse to derail the favorite. BROTHER DEREK (Benchmark) gives us the opportunity for some value in the exotics. Winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and two other stakes earlier this year, the bay colt finished in a dead-heat for fourth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) following an extremely rough trip from post 18 in which he lost a shoe. He earned a vacation following a fourth in the Preakness and recorded a good second to LAVA MAN (Slew City Slew) when making his second start back in the Goodwood Breeders’ Cup H. (G2) last time out. The Dan Hendricks-conditioned colt has trained superbly since then, and after showing an affinity for Churchill earlier this year, we expect him to respond with a career-best showing in his third start off the layoff. Brother Derek will be up close stalking the pace from his rail post.

SUN KING (Charismatic) will be breaking from post 13, but the late runner
should be able to drop back and save ground into the first bend. The Nick Zito
charge has been earning big Late Pace ratings (111, 119 and 111 in last three
starts), and the Classic will set up for a closer with all the speed in the
field. Ten furlongs remains a question for the dark bay colt, but Sun King
definitely has the ability to challenge for a top-three placing if he can get
the distance.

Lava Man is six-for-six this year, winning Southern
California’s three most prestigious events for older horses, and he’s been able
to put his competition away in most starts with a swift turn of foot into the
stretch. We like the fact that trainer Doug O’Neill shipped him to Kentucky early
in order to get the five-year-old gelding acclimated to the conditions, but Lava
Man hasn’t run well in his last three starts outside of California. If he takes
to Churchill’s surface, he rates a big chance for at least runner-up honors, but
that remains a big if.

DAVID JUNIOR (Pleasant Tap) will be making his U.S. and dirt debut, but the 1
1/4-mile specialist has the pedigree to handle the dirt and looms as a dangerous
contender. A two-time Group 1 winner this year, the four-year-old colt has the
class to challenge if he takes to the track, but the 119-day layoff is a bit of
a concern.

PERFECT DRIFT (Dynaformer) likes Churchill (9-1-3-5), winning the 2003
Stephen Foster H. (G1), but he’s winless in six starts this year and hasn’t
earned top Speed ratings this season. The classy seven-year-old gelding finished
a good third behind Saint Liam in last year’s Classic, earning a whopping 117
Speed rating, and could be rounding into top form once again, so we can’t
completely dismiss him from exotics consideration.

GEORGE WASHINGTON (Ire) (Danehill) is a very talented colt, but there are too
many unknowns for us to back him with any confidence. He’s not bred for the dirt
as a son of Danehill and, perhaps more importantly, he’s never raced past eight
furlongs. The Classic will be a demanding task over a foreign surface, and the
Aidan O’Brien trainee isn’t catching a field full of slouches. We would rate him
higher if the race was at a mile or 1 1/16 miles, but we don’t like him trying
10 furlongs.

FLOWER ALLEY (Distorted Humor) stamped himself as a 2006 Horse of the Year
candidate with his runner-up finish in last year’s Classic, but he made a
belated return to the races this year and has run poorly in his last two starts.
He owns the back class to be a factor, but his recent form is too poor for us to
have any confidence in his chances. Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner GIACOMO
(Holy Bull) is a one-run closer in a field loaded with speed, but the grinder
probably isn’t fast enough to be a serious factor in the stretch this time
around at Churchill.

PREMIUM TAP (Pleasant Tap) has never been the distance and will be severely
tested for class. His front-running upset in the Woodward S. (G1) two starts
back came over a speed-favoring Saratoga track, and he’ll probably show speed
again here after being taken back off the pace in his last outing. SUAVE (A.P.
Indy) is three-for-six at Churchill Downs, but he never fired when finishing
last in the Woodward and does his best running on the front end. He could add to
the pace, but we can’t envision him lasting. LAWYER RON (Langfuhr) is a
confirmed front runner who probably won’t want any part of the distance.