HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
APRIL 1, 2011
by Dick Powell
Two-year-old racing is about to begin in earnest, and it’s always fun to
scout out the new sires and which ones will have offspring who will come out
running. I pay attention to the training sales to see who is being received well
in the commercial markets but the first-crop sire that I think will get off to a
great start at stud has been kind of cold in the auction ring.
DISCREET CAT (Forestry) was a monster first-out winner at Saratoga in 2005
when he won by 3 1/2 lengths going six furlongs in 1:09.76 on the undercard of
that year’s Travers S. (G1). He was privately purchased out of that race by
Godolphin and shipped to Dubai, where he re-surfaced in March winning a
conditions race going a mile at Nad al Sheba. His next start was the U.A.E.
Derby (UAE-G2), which he won easily by six lengths over a field that included
future Horse of the Year INVASOR (Arg) (Candy Stripes).
Invasor went on to win the Pimlico Special (G1), the Suburban H. (G1), the
Whitney H. (G1), the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), the Donn H. (G1) and the Dubai
World Cup (UAE-G1). In fact, the U.A.E. Derby was the only race that Invasor
ever lost in a career where he captured 12 of 13 starts and earned more than
$7.8 million. It shows just how good Discreet Cat was.
Godolphin shipped Discreet Cat back to America and, after winning an
allowance race at Saratoga, he went on to take the Jerome H. (G2) going a mile
by 10 1/4 lengths, then captured the Cigar Mile H. (G1) in 1:32.46 while beating
Badge of Silver, Silver Train and Sharp Humor. All three of these horses have
gotten off to good starts in their stud careers.
At this point, Discreet Cat was undefeated in six starts and normally would
have been retired to stud. But, Godolphin retired three-year-old champion
BERNARDINI (A.P. Indy) instead and Discreet Cat went back to Dubai for a try at
the Dubai World Cup. He was no match for Invasor and ran poorly in his other two
starts that year. Instead of retiring for big money, he settled in at Darley
near Lexington, Kentucky, for $30,000 and now stands for $17,500.
His offspring have sold modestly with 55 yearlings going through the ring
last year for an average sales price of $48,433. I thought the pace would pick
up with this year’s training sales but a few have been listed as not sold and
four have been sold for an average of $64,500.
That said, I still love his chances this year with his first crop to race.
The homebred horses have not been exposed to the sales rings so we have no idea
what is to come from them. But many of the offspring that have been for sale
were out of female families with very speedy and precocious families. With his
enormous natural ability, I still think that Discreet Cat is a can’t-miss First
Crop sire and I’ll be paying close attention to them when Keeneland opens up.
*****
Rosie Napravnik wrapped up her riding title at the Fair Grounds with a win in
the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) aboard PANTS ON FIRE (Jump Start). The
23-year-old rider became the first woman to win the riding title by dominating
the second half of the meet and finishing with 110 wins — 31 more than
runner-up Shaun Bridgmohan.
Napravnik began the meet by riding for a variety of trainers, with Mike
Stidham and Sturges Ducoing as her main stables. As the meet finished, leading
trainer Steve Asmussen and runner-up Tom Amoss began to use her more and she
kept pouring it on right to the finish.
As for the Louisiana Derby itself, Pants on Fire was supposed to be a rabbit
for stablemate Nacho Business (Rahy) and he did his job by chasing 11–1
longshot Liondrive (Lion Tamer) through decent fractions of :23.43 and :47.53.
Risen Star S. (G2) winner Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) made his move around the
far turn but Pants on Fire had plenty left. Napravnik had him in a left-hand
drive and when she switched back to the right hand, he continued on to the wire.
Mucho Macho Man was not able to make up any ground and Nehro (Mineshaft)
rallied nicely up the rail to snatch second. Pants on Fire covered the nine
furlongs of the Louisiana Derby in 1:49.92 and earned a BRIS Speed rating of 97.
There was a healthy breeze blowing on Saturday at Fair Grounds, but I doubt if
we saw any real classic contenders coming out of this race.
*****
I thought that VICTOIRE PISA (Neo Universe) would get the jump on the deep
closers in Saturday’s Dubai World Cup (UAE-G1) and I was right. I just didn’t
think the jump would come going down the backstretch.
With $10 million on the line, 13 of the best jockeys in the world decided to
suffer brain lock as nobody wanted to challenge for the lead after a half in
:53.18. Mirco Demuro squandered any chance to run near the lead early when
Victoire Pisa hit the gate at the start and he was dead last going around the
first turn.
How many times have you seen a basketball player pull up for a jump shot too
far away from the basket and you are thinking what is he doing? The ball swishes
through the net and it was a great shot. That was how I felt when Demuro decided
to pull out down the backstretch and pass 12 restrained rivals to go up and
stalk Transcend (Wile Rush) as they headed to the far turn. It seemed like the
move was too early but it turned out to be genius.
The two Japanese horses raced as a team around the far turn and try as they
might, none of the closers were able to get by. Victoire Pisa surged to the lead
in the straight and with a final quarter mile in :23.33 was able to beat
Transcend by a half-length with Monterosso (Dubawi) a fast-closing third up the
inside. The 5-2 betting favorite Twice Over (GB) (Observatory) never really
threatened in a wide trip from post 12.
The one-two finish for Japan triggered an emotional scene rarely witnessed at
a race track. People winning a $10 million race are usually happy but this was a
different kind of jubilation. The people connected with the Japanese horses that
raced on World Cup night had left Japan before the earthquake and tsunami hit
and had not been home for two weeks. An outpouring of pent-up emotion was
unleashed when Victoire Pisa and Transcend hit the finish line. Sheik Mohammed
bin Rashid al Maktoum, pumping his fist at his rivals’ win and emotionally
hugging the winning connections was something that will always be remembered
from this year’s Dubai World Cup.
Katsuhiko Sumii now joins some rarified air in the world of trainers. In
2006, he trained the first two finishers past the post in the Melbourne Cup
(Aus-G1) and now adds the world’s richest horse race to his resume. You might
remember him as the trainer of Cesario (Jpn) (Special Week), who came to America
to win the American Oaks (G1) at Hollywood Park. In Japan, he is mostly
remembered as the trainer of the great race mare Vodka (Tanino Gimlet) who won
the Japan Cup (Jpn-G1) and more than $13 million.
*****
The world’s fastest horse, BLACK CAVIAR (Bel Espirit), is now the world’s
highest ranked horse at 130 pounds, putting her ahead of such notables as Blame
at 129 as well as Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa) and Zenyatta at 125. The World
Thoroughbred Rankings cover the past six months of racing including the
Breeders’ Cup and last weekend’s racing at Meydan. She is now 11-for-11 after
another romping win last weekend at Moonee Valley in the William Reid Stakes
(Aus-G1).
Unlike her previous two wins down the Flemington straight where she just sat
and took over at will, she was back in fifth-place after 600 meters and as they
raced around the far turn, Luke Nolen actually got into her to go past her two
rivals. The result was what was expected and from there she cruised to an easy
win but it showed that she can belly down when asked.