GLOBEFORM BREEDERS’ CUP
COMMENTARY
OCTOBER 24, 2009
Brisnet.com will be the source for Globeform reports, for the very first
time, during the upcoming Breeders’ Cup at Oak Tree on November 6-7, and the
following is a commentary upon possible Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) contender ZENYATTA
(Street Cry [Ire]).
Why Zenyatta should run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic
by Geir Stabell
ZENYATTA should definitely run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, rather than the
Ladies’ Classic (G1), which she won with such ease last year. Not only is she the top
rated horse on Globeform ratings, she will hold home court advantage, she has
plenty of experience with the surface, and she will be receiving a useful weight
allowance. What more would John Shirreffs & Co. want, as they are on the
threshold of making racing history?
Nobody sitting in Zenyatta’s corner will get a chance like this again. Ever.
True, some of her likely Classic rivals are solid horses but, let’s face it, with
Sea the Stars and Rail Trip (Jump Start) both ruled out, there is not much “brilliance” left.
Zenyatta owns well over half the brilliance on tap here, regardless of who else
turns up in the Classic. Jockey Mike Smith has made
comments indicating that she will be running against the boys, and that is
precisely what she deserves to do. She has nothing more to prove in her own
division, and, while she has nothing to lose from going in the big one, a win in
the Breeders’ Cup Classic should make her Horse of the Year. Even if it is
achieved in the closest of finishes. Normally, when Zenyatta runs, there is no need for a photo finish but
— and this is the great thing — she has been in a
couple of close final furlong battles. She has become accustomed to winning with
ease, but she also knows how to fight.
Capable of Globeform 129p, she will be carrying three pounds less than Rip
Van Winkle (Galileo [Ire]), Summer Bird (Birdstone), Quality Road (Elusive
Quality), Einstein (Brz) (Spend a Buck) and all the other males. If
Zenyatta performs to GF 130, which is not at all unlikely, a male will have to
produce GF 133 or higher to beat her. Is that likely? If so, which one of them
might be able to do so. To put the task into perspective; Sea the Stars returned GF 130p in the Irish Champion
S. (Ire-G1). Thus, if Zenyatta runs to her best,
the one who wants to match strides with her needs to run to a higher rating than
See the Stars’ personal best. Think about it.
The opposition will be a great deal tougher here than in the Ladies’ Classic,
where Zenyatta would probably go off at around 3-5 on the board, so if
protecting Zenyatta’s unbeaten record is a priority, then that is where she will
run. The purse is much bigger in the Classic, though, and the added bonuses of
winning the big one are almost impossible to assess. Even running second or third would elevate her status even further.
Some
observers say that she has been “beating little or nothing” in the distaff division. Well, that may well be how it looks on paper, but anyone with a bit of
experience with racehorses and Thoroughbred racing, who has seen her race, must realize that she is an absolute freak. Smith has ridden her with such
unprecedented confidence in some of her races, that one might have thought “now comes her
defeat.” But no. Zenyatta has overcome being in positions where other horses,
never mind what they were called, would fail. Last year’s Ladies’ Classic is an
excellent example of such a run — when Zenyatta came from way back to blow past
her rivals for a comfortable win over Cocoa Beach (Chi) (Doneraile Court) and Music Note
(A.P. Indy). They are both
top class performers, with success in the highest grade, but neither had any
sort of chance once Zenyatta got rolling. She won with plenty in hand.
The pace scenario may be more to her liking in the Classic, as the early
fractions should be sharper there than in the Ladies’ Classic. In addition,
stretching out to 1 1/4 miles may be just what Zenyatta wants to show even better
form than we have seen so far. The way she finishes her races suggests that she
would love racing at distances over 1 1/8 miles, the longest trip she has
tackled to date.
Thirteen wins from as many starts is a record that speaks for itself, and
Zenyatta is a unique Thoroughbred. Coming off an easy win in the Lady’s Secret
S. (G1), a race she won also in her final start prior to the Breeders’ Cup last
year, she will take all the beating. Wherever she runs. And remember:
Nobody sitting in Zenyatta’s corner will get a chance like this again. Ever.