HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 17, 2010
by Dick Powell
Fair Grounds opened up its 139th racing season on Thanksgiving Day and this
year’s meet is a little bit different than what you might be used to seeing.
Open company maiden special weight classes are now running for $45,000 and
Louisiana-bred maiden special weight classes have been reduced to $37,000 as the
race office is doing everything they can to get the open company races to fill.
Purses are up overall and the meet is off to a good start due to good weather
and going back to the traditional Thanksgiving Day opening.
One thing that jumps off the page when you go back and examine the charts for
this year’s meet is how well horses drawn on the inside have done in sprint
races. This is dramatically different from last year when horses drawn on the
outside had just as good a chance as horses drawn on the inside. Part of it may
be due to the terrific weather New Orleans has had so far this year and we
haven’t had many sloppy tracks where the rail is more tiring than the outside.
Last year at this time of the meet, speed was dominating the six furlong
races. The 77 races run at six furlongs on the main track had a BRIS Speed Bias
of 74 percent. At the first call, the average distance behind the leader for the
winner was only 1.5 lengths. This year, after 57 races were run at six furlongs
on the main track, there was a BRIS Speed Bias of 56 percent and the average
distance behind the leader for the winner was 2.6 lengths.
In last year’s 77 six furlong races run on the main track, 42 percent of them
were won gate to wire. In this year’s 57 six furlong races run on the main
track, 26 percent of them were won gate to wire. For years, I always did well at
the Fair Grounds by playing speed horses in the sprints since many other bettors
see that long stretch and assume that closers will dominate. This year, those
horses that I thought had an edge due to their running style have been getting
caught more than usual.
But there seems to be hope as speed absolutely dominated on Monday’s card.
There are a couple of ways that I look at it to see if there any running biases.
One is to watch the races, another is to read all the charts and the third is to
take into account the actual chances of the individual horses.
In the 1ST race, OF GAB (High Brite) held on grimly to win at odds of 95-10
and beat the more fancied G G’S GIRL (Buddha) going six furlongs. Race two, at 5
1/2 furlongs, was dominated by the speedy odds-on favorite SPICEY WORLD (Planet
Earth), but he was going to win no matter what the bias was. In the 4TH four,
MR. FUZZYBOTTOM (Forest Wildcat) went gate to wire to win by less than a length.
In race five, the early speed horse, REFLATE THE BUBBLE (Langfuhr), gunned to
the front through a first quarter in :21.87 and when he tired, the
pace-prompting WISE GOODBYES (Wised Up) took over and won easily.
The 6TH six confirmed any doubts about the speed-favoring nature of Monday’s
main track going six furlongs. WHAT AN HONOR (Double Honor), the near 22-1
longshot, gunned to the front and opened up a clear lead. In his last two
starts, against this claiming level, he finished 22 3/4 and 20 lengths behind
while running BRIS Late Pace figures of 43 and 52. Watching Monday’s 6TH race,
you kept expecting What an Honor to quit in the stretch but he kept on going to
the final yards. MAUI CRUSIER (Smooth Jazz) was the one doing all the chasing
and finally wore him down in the final yards. He didn’t win but What an Honor
certainly benefited from the speed bias there was on Monday.
Finally, in the last race of the day, U SCENE MORONI (Orbit’s Scene) chased
the favored GOLDIE’S FINEST (Finest Hour) around the track and held on easily
for second at 31-1 odds.
When a racetrack has a historical pattern and then doesn’t conform to that
historical pattern, the chances are that it will eventually return to that
historical pattern unless there is some extenuating circumstance. The Fair
Grounds main track looks like it is returning to the norm of being
speed-favoring in dirt sprints and we’ll keep track of it in the coming weeks.
The turf course at Fair Grounds seems to behaving in a rational manner;
closers still dominate. For instance, last year there were 53 races run at a
mile on the Stall-Wilson turf course with a BRIS Speed Bias of 30 percent and
only 11 percent of the races were run gate to wire. This year, there have been
16 races run at a mile on the turf and the BRIS Speed Bias is 38 percent and
there have been no gate-to-wire winners. For races run at 1 1/16 miles on the
turf, the results have been almost identical as speed continues to struggle.
In the turf sprint races, last year there were 40 races run at the distance
of about 5 1/2 furlongs and they had a BRIS Speed Bias of 45 percent and 20
percent were won going gate to wire. This year, there have been five races run
at about 5 1/2 furlongs and they have a BRIS Speed Rating of 40 percent and 20
percent were won going gate to wire.
The Fair Grounds turf course is a sand-based one and it behaves differently
than most. When it is dry, it will perform like a cuppy, dirt track and yield
very slow times and not favor horses that run on the lead. When it gets some
moisture in it, it will help the speed more since it will stay together better.
Therefore, don’t assume a race run on “good” turf will be less kind to speed
horses than one run on “firm” turf. Usually, it’s the opposite.