HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
SEPTEMBER 2, 2011
by Dick Powell
Last weekend was one of the best all year in horse racing with major races
run at Saratoga and at Del Mar. But nobody, and I mean nobody, shone brighter
than Bob Baffert’s THE FACTOR (War Front) when he won the Pat O’Brien S. (G1) at
Del Mar.
Coming off a 134-day layoff and taking on older rivals for the first time,
the speedball that won the fastest juvenile maiden going six furlongs of all
time skipped going to Saratoga for the King’s Bishop (G1) and stayed home to
take on the leading sprinter in America, Smiling Tiger (Hold That Tiger), winner
of three Grade 1 sprint stakes the past two years.
The Factor is not only brilliantly fast but was able to carry his speed two
turns this year when he won the Rebel S. (G2) by 6 1/4 lengths at Oaklawn Park
going 1 1/16 miles. Left in his wake that day were none other than CALEB’S POSSE
(Posse), who came east to win the Amsterdam S. (G2) and King’s Bishop over last
year’s juvenile champion, UNCLE MO (Indian Charlie), and ARCHARCHARCH (Arch),
who won the Arkansas Derby (G1) in his next start.
Baffert, know as “Bullet Bob” for how fast he works his horses in the
morning, was taking no chances with The Factor coming back in such a tough spot
and put the screws to him with a pair of 1:10 and change, six-furlong workouts.
Del Mar plays faster in the morning when the track has not yet heated up due to
the afternoon sun so Baffert was not going to be fooled into thinking he had a
fit horse from the fast clockings in the morning. He put in the second
six-furlong work from the gate the Saturday before and he was assured of having
a horse fit enough for the task.
When the gate opened for the Pat O’Brien, Smiling Tiger was on his toes and
broke on top from post 5 with Joel Rosario. Martin Garcia had The Factor away
well and he wound up stalking Smiling Tiger while less than a half-length
behind. It was a weird position to be in since it looked like Rosario could ask
his mount for more speed and come over to the rail when he wanted and tighten
things up for The Factor.
However, Garcia had so much horse underneath him that he could loosen the
reins an inch and keep his position on the inside. You would much rather stalk
while clear on the outside than down next to the rail but it didn’t really
matter. After a first quarter in :22.41, they upped the ante in the next quarter
that was run in an amazing :21.87. The Factor was not only able to maintain his
inside position but he gradually inched his way to the lead around the far turn.
Smiling Tiger responded with a move of his own and looked like he might have had
the lead just as they began to straighten away.
But watching Garcia around the turn showed he still had a long hold on The
Factor and he asked the question in the homestretch when he shook the reins and
applied the whip. The Factor broke the race open as Smiling Tiger paid for his
early efforts on the front and began to back up. The Factor had a clear lead
with a furlong remaining as he covered six furlongs in 1:08.60 and he cruised to
a 1 3/4-length victory over Camp Victory (Forest Camp), who rallied for second.
The Factor’s final time of 1:21.56 was the fastest seven-furlong race of the
meet and he did it with authority.
Four months off meant nothing to the awesome talent of The Factor and
Baffert’s training acumen. One thing about Bob — he does a lot of complaining
but even though there’s a hint of gamesmanship in it, he knows what he’s talking
about and he made sure he showed up on Sunday with a fit horse for a big task.
In a crop of sophomores that have trouble putting good races together, The
Factor now has two Grade 2s and a Grade 1 stakes win to his credit this year and
needs to be included in any championship conversation.
I saw no evidence that Uncle Mo had regained any of his championship form
from last year and thought he was ripe for the taking in Saturday’s King’s
Bishop at Saratoga. Even before he had his liver disease that sent him to the
sidelines, he ran twice this year without showing any development from last
year. In fact, he went backward.
That said, he ran a terrific race in the King’s Bishop but let’s not get too
carried away. I thought he got a perfect trip, sitting behind three horses that
were knocking heads on the lead, took over in the stretch, ducked to the inside
and was nailed in the last jump by Caleb’s Posse. It was a good effort and when
it was learned after the race that he threw a show during the race, it was the
first evidence that he was the same horse that he was last year.
That said, he is still going to have to show more to live up to the hype
after the race. It even continued after the Travers S. (G1) when his oft-ignored
stablemate STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini) put together his third big race in a row
when he was a handy winner of the “Midsummer Derby.”
After a second in the Belmont S. (G1) run over a sloppy track, Stay Thirsty
won the Jim Dandy (G2) at the Spa in a key decision as it gave him a race over
the track, which has been a big handicapping angle at this year’s meet. Stay
Thirsty used his tactical speed to get away from the gate without incident,
allowed Preakness (G1) winner Shackleford (Forestry) to clear on the outside,
swing to the outside in the run down the backside, take over on the far turn and
then use his superior dirt pedigree to prevail.
Last year, it was going to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) without a prep
race. This year, it was shipping back to the heat of south Florida where he
bombed in the Florida Derby (G1). Now, I hope owner Mike Repole shows this colt
the respect he deserves and puts him on the pedestal of the barn’s best
three-year-old. Right now, the best three-year-olds in training are Stay Thirsty
and The Factor.
I was talking to a prominent trainer Thursday morning at Saratoga and he was
making some interesting observations about the main track here. He commented on
how horses that have their first race over the track come out exhausted by the
effort and many trainers have been fooled into thinking they have a horse that’s
fit and ready then see them stagger through the lane.
We talked about the race-over-the-track angle and he made the point that the
horses that have raced here on the main track will be ready to move forward in
their next start down the road. It was interesting to see a trainer actually
think like a handicapper and while I might be a victim of “confirmation bias,” I
couldn’t agree more.