HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
SEPTEMBER 30, 2011
by Dick Powell
What used to be called “Belmont’s Fall Championship Season” has now been
reduced to one day — “Super Saturday” — as the effects of trainers wanting
more time to prepare for the Breeders’ Cup have played havoc with schedules.
While Belmont’s fall schedule is not what it used to be with even the
historic Woodward S. (G1) moved to Saratoga, it now means that instead of having
three races for each division, they now have one and most of them will be run on
Saturday.
The highlight will the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) to be run at 1 1/4 miles on
the main track. Originally, Jimmy Bond was going to point Whitney H. (G1) winner
Tizway (Tiznow) to it as his final prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), but
he was forced to scrap that plan when Tizway developed a fever. That leaves the
Gold Cup with its lone marquee horse, STAY THIRSTY (Bernardini), who will take
on older horses for the first time off his terrific Saratoga meet when he won
the Jim Dandy (G2) and Travers S. (G1).
Racing at Belmont has been very challenging so far with weather conditions
that have changed the track day after day. It’s been relatively warm and very
humid for most of September. Speed has done well on the main track except when
wet tracks are drying out or when rain is expected and the track has not been
watered enough. With this year’s Breeders’ Cup to be run on dirt at Churchill
Downs, it pays to watch these races very intensely and take notes. You don’t
want to forget about how the track was playing five weeks from now.
Last week at Parx Racing, you could see how the main track was playing. What
started out as a “muddy” (sealed) track was upgraded to “good” and finally
listed as “fast,” and the Parx Racing oval was blazing fast throughout the day.
In the Gallant Bob S., which was run at six furlongs, 19-1 longshot ROYAL
CURRIER (Red Bullet) went gate to wire to win by almost four lengths in the
1:07.51.
The next race was the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and as much as I
liked TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini) going into it, I loved him even more when
I saw how the track was playing. With his tactical speed, it looked like the
perfect set-up for him.
Jose Lezcano sent him up three wide on the first turn to set up shop in
second place going down the backstretch in perfect stalking position. Even with
a fast first half of :46.62, it didn’t look like To Honor and Serve was
exerting any energy at all as he used his high cruising speed to best advantage. Lezcano was content to maintain his position as there was no pressure on him
coming from behind. He threw in a :23.60 third quarter and frontrunner Rush Now
(Tiznow) could take no more.
To Honor and Serve took over turning for home and quickly opened up a
five-length lead hitting the mile mark in 1:34.65. He was never threatened in
the final furlong and won by 2 1/4 lengths over Belmont S. (G1) winner Ruler on Ice (Roman Ruler) who
rallied against the bias. The final time was 1:47.34 and To Honor and Serve
earned a BRIS Speed rating of 112, which coupled with his 107 earned in a
Saratoga allowance race puts him in the top echelon going two turns on dirt
regardless of age.
After the race, trainer Bill Mott left the door wide open for the Breeders’
Cup Classic. He will have plenty of time in between races and he has an
improving horse at the end of the year — a potent combination.
At Longchamp racecourse in Paris on Sunday, France’s version of Super Sunday
will be held with many races having Breeders’ Cup implications. The highlight of
the day will be the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1), Europe’s premier
weight-for-age race going 1 1/2 miles and it is a race that I have been waiting
11 months for.
Last year, I was lucky enough to go to the Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1) in Australia.
On the Saturday before the Cup, SO YOU THINK (High Chaparral [Ire]) won the McKinnon
S. (Aus-G1) at 1 5/16 miles on an incredibly wet turf course. Having just won
his second Cox Plate (Aus-G1), he was the reigning superstar but he came up short in
the two-mile Melbourne Cup when he was rank early and tired late after taking
the lead.
Two days after the Cup, the team from Ballydoyle swept in and bought a
controlling interest in the colt and the plan was to take him to Ireland where
he would be trained by Aidan O’Brien and raced in Europe to fortify his race
record.
A few months after arriving in Ireland, the word began to leak out that
O’Brien, the trainer of superstars like Galileo and Giant’s Causeway, thought that So You Think was the best horse he ever had
— high praise from a trainer that is not known for promoting his horses.
With one small hiccup, the plan has worked perfectly this year and now So You
Think takes on the Arc. The weather in Paris this week has been sunny so even
with watering the turf should be good. So You Think has strong cruising speed and with the
big prize in his sights, O’Brien has stepped up his training. He has already
beaten last year’s Arc winner, Workforce (GB) (King’s Best), and the top racemare
Snow Fairy (Intikhab). A field of 14 is expected on Sunday but So You Think has enough
speed to stay out of trouble and with suitable ground to race over, there will
be no excuses.