HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 16, 2011
by Dick Powell
The Grade 1 CashCall Futurity will be run at Hollywood Park this Saturday for
the 31st time as the juvenile graded stakes season comes to a halt. In the prior
30 runnings, the first 25 run on dirt and the past five on Cushion Track, it has
been one of the best barometers for future classic success.
A quick look at former winners like A.P. Indy, Snow Chief, Stephan’s Odyssey,
Real Quiet, Point Given and Lookin at Lucky shows that staying in training to
the end of their juvenile seasons did no harm to their classic prospects the
following year.
And you don’t have to be a Futurity winner to go on to classic success as
horses like Alysheba, Ferdinand, Thunder Gulch and Giacomo were all beaten in
this spot.
This year, a field of 13 is entered for the $750,000 CashCall Futurity to go
1 1/16 miles on the Cushion Track. Bob Baffert, who has won the race a record
five times, has three horses entered headlined by Drill. The Lawyer Ron colt has
gone bad in his last two starts on dirt against good company but at least
returns to a synthetic track (broke his maiden on Polytrack and won the Grade
Del Mar Futurity). Drill doesn’t have any strong excuse to rely on for his
recent form, but Martin Garcia returns in the irons.
Baffert sends out recent maiden winner Sky Kingdom and he could be a real
sleeper in here. Despite a pedigree that cries out for distance, he raced twice
at Del Mar going 5 1/2 furlongs without any success. He came back 11 weeks later
at Hollywood and broke his maiden at this distance by more than two lengths in
good time and now moves up to stakes company.
By Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker, Sky Kingdom is out of a dam by
Kingmambo that is a full-sister to Mambo in Seattle, who was second in the Grade
1 Travers Stakes going 10 furlongs. Sky Kingdom flew home off a slow (-11, -14)
pace in his maiden win and has worked well since then. He doesn’t have to
improve too much to beat these.
The other Baffert runner is Liaison, who won the Real Quiet Stakes as a prep
for this. The son of the late Indian Charlie broke his maiden going seven
furlongs and then won going two turns at Hollywood as the 9-10 favorite in the
Real Quiet. His BRIS Speed rating for his Real Quiet win was the same as Sky
Kingdom’s maiden win, so Liaison will have to keep improving to be in the money
here.
Majestic City is an interesting horse as he has continued to do well no
matter what is thrown at him. He began his career going 4 1/2 furlongs, 5 1/2
furlongs and six furlongs and won each time. He just missed against Drill in the
Del Mar Futurity going seven furlongs then was a terrific second in the
Breeders’ Futurity (G1) going two turns at Keeneland.
Things finally went awry in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf when Majestic
City gunned to the front and faded. Now, he returns to a track he is three for
three over and has trained well since coming back home. Peter Miller is going to
remove blinkers for the first time and add Ramon Dominguez. He’s by City Zip out
of a mare by Meadowlake, so there’s not much stamina in his pedigree, and
Majestic City has to overcome post 11.
A horse that I think has a big shot in here at generous odds is Handsome
Mike. He raced evenly while in tight quarters in his career debut going 6 1/2
furlongs on the synthetic then came back to break his maiden in a turf sprint at
Santa Anita. That result led Doug O’Neill to enter him in the Grade 3 Generous
Stakes and he almost went gate to wire over the turf course after setting an
extremely fast (+28, +22) pace.
Handsome Mike draws the rail with Corey Nakatani and has more than enough
gate speed to give him options going into the first turn. He’s by good young
sire Scat Daddy and is out of a dam by Smart Strike, so he should be able to
handle any surface, and the improving colt has trained well here in the morning.
The bay colt appears to have a big upside.
I am going to toss Drill completely and make a win bet on Handsome Mike then
key him in exactas up and down with Sky Kingdom, Liaison and Majestic City.