Pedigree Handicapping

PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING

NOVEMBER 17, 2005

Sire Stats

by Tim Holland

In order to achieve success, horseplayers need to use information that the
general public either ignores or does not have access to. One such “edge” that BRIS customers have is the availability of pedigree statistics.

Many useful stallion statistics can be found in the BRIS Past Performances.
The Sire Production Index (SPI) is based on the average earnings per start
for all of the stallion’s foals who have started three or more times. The
stats also grade sires by percentage in different categories, including first-time starters (FTS), off tracks, turf and average
winning distance (AWD).

Over the years, a consistently good angle has been to watch for two-year-olds or three-year-olds
who have made one or two unsuccessful starts before taking a layoff
of at least 45 days. Very often, with the race experience under the belt and
whatever small problems that may have occurred behind them, these horses will come back
fresher and excel right off the bench. Indeed, a five-month study of maiden races
last year found a total of 699 runners who followed this pattern and made their
first start back at a distance of six furlongs or less. Of these, exactly
100 (14 percent) were winners, a decent win rate and a good starting point to look for
an angle.

Many of the winners were trained by high percentage conditioners, who unfortunately as a rule do not escape the public eye. When the stipulation
was added that to be a “qualifier” the trainer must have at least a 20 percent win rate off the
relevant layoff range, the win rate did rise to 22 percent. The problem is that
this qualifier also eliminated many longshot sleepers, resulting in a loss for a
$2 wager on each.

However when a pedigree rule was applied, a much better result was attained.
I’ve ranked below the maiden winners in three Sire Stat categories: SPI, to ensure
a certain level of class; AWD, to rule out horses who would need longer
distances; and FTS, which is included to gauge a level of precocity needed to win early in
the career, especially coming off a break.

New sires who didn’t have enough of a sample size have been omitted from the
following example:

AWD		Runners		Wins		%
6.9f-		475		73		15%
7.0f+		166		20		12%

To become a qualifier, the runners’ sire must have a SPI of 1.00 or
higher, an AWD of 6.9 or less and a FTS win rate of 14 percent or more. This formula
produced 152 selections, 27 winners (18 percent) and most importantly, a very healthy
profit.

Qualifiers		Runners		Wins (%)		Av odds		Profit/Loss (to $2 stake)
Sire Stats		152		27 (18%)		13.80-1		+$138.20
20%+ layoff trainers		103		22 (22%)		7.94-1		-$42.20

While this example turned out to be somewhat extreme and is unlikely to be
reproduced again at this level, it proved that handicappers must look for
information that is not on the “front page” where everyone else sees it. Speed
and Class ratings, trainer and jockey stats all catch the public’s eye and have
been exploited to where value ceases to exist. However, a simple pedigree figure
such as a sire rating can be used in the right situation to reap profits.

The stallions that produced winners in this survey and that can be watched in
similar circumstances include Avenue of Flags, Carson City,
Citidancer, Distorted Humor,
Eltish, Elusive Quality,
Forest Wildcat, Honour and Glory, Northern Afleet, Glitterman, Prospect Bay,
Salt Lake, Silver Deputy, Slews Royalty, Smoke Glacken, Stormy Atlantic, Tale of
the Cat, Unusual Heat and Valid Expectations.

An upcoming runner who fits all the parameters of this angle is True Course
(Distorted Humor), who is entered in the 1ST race at Hoosier Park on November 18. Trained
by Joseph Davis, the juvenile colt showed plenty of speed in both his starts at Turfway before
taking a 48-day freshener. Sire Distorted Humor shows a SPI
of 3.51, an AWD of 6.8 and a FTS of 19 percent.