HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
SEPTEMBER 7, 2012
by Dick Powell
Todd Pletcher had 23 juvenile winners at the recently concluded Saratoga meet
but the one that might have been best didn’t even win.
On closing day, Pletcher had WinStar Farm’s Revolutionary in a 5 1/2-furlong
maiden special weight race for two-year-olds. Like many of the Pletcher-trained
Saratoga juveniles, he was working very fast with back-to-back :59 and change
five-furlong works from the starting gate. He drew post 3 and had Johnny
Velazquez in the irons.
By first-crop sire War Pass, he had every right to come out running being by
a sire that was an undefeated, champion juvenile. Revolutionary’s dam is Runup
the Colors, who won at two and went on to capture the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes
going 10 furlongs. Runup the Colors is a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner
and Broodmare of the Year Prospector’s Delite, who is the dam of Horse of the
Year Mineshaft and multiple Grade 1 queen Tomisue’s Delight. So, there was class
galore in Revolutionary’s pedigree, the betting public agreed and he was sent
off as the 7-5 betting favorite.
At the start, Stage Street took a right-hand turn when the gate opened and
forced Clawback into Revolutionary. Revolutionary was wiped out at the start and
by the time the field unsorted itself, he was at least 14 lengths behind after
the first quarter-mile was run. It was as rough a start as you could have and
for a first-time-starter, it had to scare him witless.
With the first quarter in :21 4/5, Revolutionary’s first quarter was around
:24 3/5 and in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint, he was hopelessly behind. Going into the
turn, Revolutionary was running strong and his stride was eating up ground while
racing well off the rail. He began to pass horses and moved into a distant
fourth at the top of the stretch as Velazquez drew the whip. The leaders ran the
second quarter in :22 4/5 and Revolutionary had to run his below 22 seconds.
Always in a Tiz avoided the early jam up and put away the front runner but
Clawback, who was impeded pretty hard at the start also, was not giving way.
As those two battled for the wire, Revolutionary kept on coming and, when
Always in a Tiz hit the wire a half-length in front, he was only another
three-quarters length behind in third. It was a remarkable effort that had to be
seen to be believed, as was the gallop out when he was five lengths ahead soon
after the wire.
It was as good a debut as I saw all season. Unlike many of the highly touted
juveniles who break on top and win by wide margins, Revolutionary’s third-place
finish was as good as any maiden winner. Watching him run the last half-mile, I
couldn’t help but think that had he ran in the Grade 2 Hopeful Stakes at seven
furlongs later on Monday, he would have had a shot to win. He was that good.
Another Pletcher juvenile that I was very impressed with was Violence, who
broke his maiden first time out going seven furlongs on August 18. On a main
track that favored speed, he didn’t have to overcome the adverse circumstances
that Revolutionary had but he still had to run down a quality foe all on his
own.
Titletown Five had already started twice and ran extremely well both times
before reappearing in Violence’s maiden. He was the classic speed horse on a
speed track and trying to run down this kind of quality opponent going seven
furlongs was not going be easy but Violence did it in style.
Rajiv Maragh sent Titletown Five to the lead but only had to go :45 for the
first half-mile. Velazquez had Violence on the chase every step of the way but
was still a length behind with a furlong to go. Usually horses that have to do
the chasing get tired late but Violence kept on coming and got up to win by a
neck. The final time of 1:22 4/5 was excellent.
The third-place finisher, Orb, returns to the races at Belmont on Saturday
and it will be interesting to see how he does. Unless he breaks poorly again, he
should break his maiden and confirm the form of the August 18 maiden special
weight race going seven furlongs.
By Medaglia d’Oro, Violence does not have any black-type in his first two
dams but the third dam is Hall of Famer Sky Beauty and this is the female family
of her half-sister Our Country Place, who has established a breeding dynasty for
the Phipps’ family. As devoid of black-type was Violence’s pedigree page was, he
sold for $600,000 as a yearling and was the co-second highest of 86 Medaglia
d’Oro yearlings sold at auction last year, so he must have been quite the
looker. Can’t wait for he and Revolutionary to make their next starts.
*****
Remember the good old days, when a $20k claimer was a $20K claimer?
Now, you need to be a graduate student of race office methods and policies to
figure out all the conditions that are now attached to races. Now, not all
optional claimers are created equal since there is a new condition to some of
them that needs to be understood.
During the Belmont spring meet, the NYRA race office started to right what
was, in effect, a starter optional claimer where all the runners had already
entered for a specific claiming price — usually $50K. These were continued at
Saratoga and they cause some confusion since the past performance lines do not
separate them from a normal optional claimer.
The first clue is that the purse is lower for the starter optional claimer
than the normal optional claimer but you have to either look up the chart or
have the original past performances of the race to know that. The meaningful
handicapping difference is that the normal optional claimer could have a recent
maiden or allowance winner that has never been exposed to the claim box in the
field while the starter optional claimer has only horses in them that have been
exposed to the claim box.
All things being equal, the normal optional claimer is a better race and we
are going to have to change past performance lines that now show “OC50N” to
“SOC50N” to let us know it was a starter optional claimer.
Bet Horseracing Free Online at TwinSpires.com