Florida Derby

TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS

The Florida Derby (G1) was moved forward on the calendar to five weeks prior
to the Kentucky Derby (G1), but the re-scheduling hasn’t resulted in a better
field for the $1 million race. Trainer Nick Zito will send out the top two
contenders, HIGH FLY (Atticus) and NOBLE CAUSEWAY (Giant’s Causeway), and the
remaining contestants have much to prove.

Noble Causeway hasn’t proven anything yet himself, but he’s looked like a
high-class individual in his last two appearances, earning triple-digit BRIS
Speed ratings for maiden and entry-level allowance wins at Gulfstream Park, and
appears set to make a major impact in his stakes bow. With his stablemate being
sick last weekend with a fever, the $1.15 million yearling rates a slight
advantage. Noble Causeway’s last two starts came at the 1 1/8-mile distance, and
the chestnut is well-drawn here with an inside post. He’s offered a strong turn
of foot into the stretch of his last two outings, receiving century-topping Late
Pace numbers each time, and the late-blooming colt should keep improving with
more seasoning. Noble Causeway faces a difficult challenge against the Grade
2-winning High Fly, but we’ll look for him to wear down his uncoupled stablemate
in the stretch for a narrow win.

High Fly owns the best Speed ratings and will be no surprise in the winner’s
circle. Switched to Zito prior to his last outing, the chestnut responded with a
stellar performance in the Foutain of Youth (G2), making the lead in upper
stretch and keeping runner-up Bandini (Fusaichiu Pegasus) at bay to the wire. He
won’t have to face that promising rival here, and the Kentucky-bred colt is the
only graded winner around two turns in the lineup. High Fly missed a scheduled
workout last weekend due to his fever, but he turned in a half-mile drill on
Tuesday and we can’t count on him being anything but fully recovered. However, Zito probably hasn’t pushed his charge for this race since High Fly has already
stamped his ticket to Louisville.

B. B. BEST (Yes It’s True) owns the best chance at an upset as the speed. He
held well for third after leading the way early in the Fountain of Youth, and
the Ed Plesa Jr. trainee is a stakes winner around two turns, taking a division
of the Florida Stallion series at 8 1/2 furlongs last October. The dark bay
could be compromised if another opponent challenges him early, but B. B. Best
appears quicker than any of his rivals and could catch a speed-favoring track.
We respect the front runner.

VICARAGE (Vicar) settled into a clear second entering the first turn of the
Louisiana Derby (G2) last out and stayed there the rest of the way in his first
attempt around two turns. The Todd Pletcher trainee certainly gave an
encouraging performance that afternoon, earning a 102 Speed figure, and he’ll
likely be forwardly placed again under John Velazquez on Saturday. We have our
doubts about his effectiveness at nine furlongs, but Vicarage could grab part
with another solid performance.

PARK AVENUE BALL (Citidancer) never got involved in the Fountain of Youth
after being bumped early and might bounce back with an improved showing here.
The New Jersey-bred offered a good rally for second when making his seasonal bow
in the seven-furlong Hutcheson S. (G2) for trainer Jim Ryerson, and Park Avenue
Ball showed his class when easily capturing the Futurity S. (G2) last fall. He
could challenge for a minor award. PAPI CHULLO (Comeonmom) is another top three
candidate. Still a maiden, the gray finished second when making his third career
start in the Sham S. and grabbed fourth in the Fountain of Youth last out. He
figures to be in striking position on the backstretch and could remain prominent
to the finish, but Papi Chullo remains a threat to regress as he continues to
bang heads with horses who have experience winning.

WALLSTREET SCANDAL (Mt. Livermore) won his first start this year on the grass
and finished fourth in the Louisiana Derby most recently. He drew a tough
outside post and owns lower Speed ratings, but Wallstreet Scandal could show room for
improvement and could possibly get into the mix late for a small share. MIGHTY MECKE (Mecke) brings a perfect mark from two starts into his graded debut, but
the bay colt will be tested for class in this spot. He’s worked well for this
appearance, but we’ll watch to see how he handles the class hike and added
ground. EVIL MINISTER (Deputy Minister) exits a dull showing in his first
appearance this year and probably needs an easier spot to challenge.