HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JANUARY 20, 2006
by Dick Powell
Value is in the eye of the beholder. Or is it? Last Saturday saw the San Rafael S. (G2) run at a mile at Santa Anita as the
road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) began in earnest with a match up of two Grade 1
winners. STEVIE WONDERBOY (Stephen Got Even) will likely be the 2005
juvenile champion off his smashing win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and
BROTHER DEREK (Benchmark) won the Hollywood Futurity (G1) in his last start
after running a good fourth in the Juvenile.
In today’s world of the path of least resistance, it was unusual to see two
major classic contenders meet this early in the season, but here they were in
the San Rafael in what was essentially a match race due to two scratches, leaving
only two other starters.
The betting public sent Stevie Wonderboy off as the 3-5 favorite despite
Brother Derek looking like the lone speed in the two-turn mile race. Yes, he has
a slight class edge, but with bigger fish to fry 14 weeks from now it was very
unlikely that trainer Doug O’Neill would have Stevie Wonderboy 100
percent fit and ready to do major battle against a speedy rival.
Brother Derek was sent off at 13-10 odds, which proved to be extremely
generous. He faced three paceless rivals, his normal running style is on or near
the early pace, and his main rival would be at a severe disadvantage without
much pace pressure.
Alex Solis sent Brother Derek to the front right from the start and his mount cruised through a half in
:46.80 while maintaining a small, but clear, lead.
Garrett Gomez was forced to keep Stevie Wonderboy much closer to the lead than
he wanted and on the far turn began to ask him for run. As Gomez began to pump
his arms, Solis casually let out a notch and at no point did it look like
Brother Derek would get caught.
They turned for home with Brother Derek maintaining his advantage and he
galloped home to a 1 1/2-length victory in a decent time of 1:36.11. Stevie
Wonderboy rallied some to be a non-threatening second and, considering how wide
he was and the lack of pace, it was a good start to his three-year-old campaign.
It’s easy to redboard this race, but a couple of lessons can be learned from
the San Rafael as this year’s prep races are run.
First, no matter who you think is going to win the “Run for the Roses” it
usually doesn’t matter in today’s race. You might have a huge future book bet on Stevie Wonderboy, but Saturday’s first start of the year
was at only a mile and he was going against a top rival like Brother Derek who
figured to have things his own way on the lead. Stevie was a horrible underlay at 3-5.
Brother Derek might need a cab ride in the deep stretch to get a mile and a
quarter on the first Saturday of May, but last Saturday he was the right horse
in the right spot and $4.60 to win was a terrific price on him. Stay in the
moment and you might have some money to bet when May 6 rolls around.
Second, each Derby prep race needs to be handicapped as any other race should
be. Yes, sometimes a champion comes along that laughs in the face of adversity
and wins regardless of the circumstances, but those horses are pretty easy to
recognize. Races in which they run are usually worth watching and admiring but
not betting. Handicapping 101 gave Brother Derek a huge edge in the San Rafael
and yet Stevie Wonderboy had nearly twice as much money bet on him in the win
pool.
At Fair Grounds’ meet at Louisiana Downs, LAWYER RON (Langfuhr) won the 1
1/16-mile Risen Star S. (G3) by 8 1/4 lengths in the very fast time of 1:43.13
and looks like he’s going to be this year’s Greater Good (Intidab) for Bob
Holthus. He took six starts to break his maiden and Holthus actually risked him
for $50,000 in his fourth start, but he’s gotten good lately and should make a
lot of noise when the action shifts to Oaklawn Park.
When Lawyer Ron broke his maiden at Keeneland, the third-place finisher that
day was HESANOLDSALT (Broad Brush), who was making his career debut for Nick
Zito. He came back to break his maiden two starts later at Calder going two
turns and showed up Sunday in Gulfstream’s 7TH race, a first-level allowance
event on the main track going 1 1/8 miles.
The 9-10 favorite was SUNRIVER (Saint Ballado), who broke his maiden prior to
Sunday in his second career start for Todd Pletcher and is a full brother to
champion Ashado. Hesanoldsalt was sent off at 3-1 with Rafael Bejarano, who took
him back off the pace and began to rally with a half-mile left.
The highly-regarded BARCOLA (Old Trieste) had the lead to the deep stretch
but began to weaken. Sunriver took the lead briefly inside the eighth pole but
could not hold off Hesanoldsalt, who won going away by three-quarters of a
length in the good time of 1:50.43.
Hesanoldsalt is a full brother to Mongoose, who won the Donn H. (G1)
here four years ago. Broad Brush, the pair’s sire, is one of America’s premier
dirt route sires, and, like many Zito youngsters, Hesanoldsalt is improving at
the right time as the races get longer.
Later on Sunday at Gulfstream in the 9TH, a first-level allowance event
going a one-turn mile on the main track, BARBICAN (A.P. Indy), a full brother to
champion Tempera, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) five years
ago, was an impressive 4 1/2-length winner in the fast time of 1:35.91 for Eoin
Harty. With his pedigree and recent race record, Barbican may have benefited
from showing little in his first start last year at Belmont. Otherwise he might
have been shipped to Dubai with Henny Hughes (Hennessy), who was an early
nominee for a conditions race on Thursday at Nad al Sheba
Racecourse but wasn’t entered.
Only Gulfstream Park in January could get two first-level allowance races for
three-year-olds at different distances to fill with large fields.
The most impressive maiden winner at Gulfstream over the weekend was
first-time starter ON BOARD AGAIN (Awesome Again), who rallied from far back
down the middle of the track to score at first asking by 4 3/4 lengths going
seven furlongs. Owned and bred by the powerful Stronach Stables, he was
dismissed at odds of 20-1 since he is trained by Stronach’s Canadian conditioner
Brian Lynch. There’s not a lot of black type in On Board Again’s immediate
female family but Awesome Again (Deputy Minister) is a terrific sire of two-turn
horses so added distance should be well within his range.