PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING
FEBRUARY 3, 2006
Eight first-time starter sires to watch for in 2006
by Tim Holland
It is often stressed that one of the keys
to achieving success as a horseplayer lies in locating overlays, mainly by using pieces of
information that the general public does not take the time to use. The BRIS
Sires Stat book is a good starting point for finding several angles, one of which
involves sires who excel with first-time starters.
Well known stallions such as Danzig, Storm Cat and Seeking The Gold that are
rated “A+” in this category are of little use to the value-seeking handicapper.
Not only are their names instantly recognizable, but the majority of
their expensive offspring are handled by well known connections, essentially quashing any
chance of a decent payoff. Hence, it pays to look for sires who produce a good
percentage of first-time-out winners combined with a measure of unfamiliarity.
The criteria for this list is an “A” or better rating for the “1st Time Starter”
category combined
with an SPI (Sire Production Index) of under 2.00, which will rule out most of the
better known sires.
Inheriting much of his blazing speed from his sire, Carson City, FIVE STAR
DAY won the A.G. Vanderbilt H. (G2) and finished second in the King’s Bishop S. (G1),
and his potential as a stallion is enhanced because his dam is a
half-sister to three-time Grade 1 winner Marquetry. Winding up 11th on the
freshman sire list, Five Star Day sired nine winners in 2005 with his leading
earner, stakes winner Within Reason, bringing in $86K.
He started this year with
great promise through daughters Dance Daily, who earned the first graded victory
for her sire in the Santa Ynez S (G2), and Sabatini, who finished third in the 2005
Hollywood Starlet (G1) and second in January’s Santa Ysabel S. (G3). Of greater
significance to handicappers is the $15.40 payoff produced by
another daughter, Casey’s Jet, in her debut at Turfway Park on January 7. Her
victory proved that it is still possible to make money finding first-time-out
winners by Five Star Day with lesser known connections, in this case William
Connelly. Five Star Day owns the highest SPI on this list at 1.83 and is the
only sire on this list to receive an “A” first-time-out rating, the remainder being slightly
higher at “A+”.
With the average winning distance of his progeny being more than seven furlongs and
the fact that he’s out of a Seattle Slew mare, one might be surprised to see MUTAKDDIM
(Seeking the Gold) rated as an “A+” first-time starter sire. However that rating
is richly deserved on account of 10 debut winners in 2005. Group 2-placed and a
listed stakes winner in England, Mutakddim
owns a stallion’s pedigree coming from the same family as Rhythm, Not For Love,
Polish Numbers and Private Account, and he’s sired 41 black-type winners, including
the Test S. (G1) queen and millionaire (and incidentally a debut winner) Lady Tak.
Despite this resume, Mutakddim is not considered commercial, with his yearling
average around $23K. Many of his offspring end up with lesser known, but
shrewd, connections, and that works to the advantage of his handicapping followers. For example,
in 2005 Mighty Gayle paid $23 when winning her debut for trainer Sam Dipasquale at Woodbine and I’maladytak returned $21.20 for Joseph Catanese at
Calder. Meanwhile, Pajshair, trained by Daniel Smithwick, represented Mutakddim
with a second-place debut over a mile on the turf at Colonial Downs in July at
huge odds of 71.60-1. This served as a reminder not to ignore this
stallion’s offspring in their initial outing over any distance or surface, and
the $32.80 payoff generated by Take Command’s victory in
his second lifetime start at Laurel in December was an illustration that his
offspring should always be kept in mind after a promising but winless first start.
TIME BANDIT (Time for a Change), winner of the Bashford Manor S. (G3) as a two-year-old, started his stud career in South Florida where his best produce was
Stolen Time, winner of the Foolish Pleasure S. His five debut winners of 2005
included the Calder winner Time Banshee, trained by Jorge Romero, who was
dispatched at odds of nearly 24-1, and Mysterious Bandit, who returned $22.40 for
trainer Laura Dennis. Moved to Louisiana for the 2003 breeding season, he
produced 29 foals of 2004 who will be two-year-olds worth watching for
value when they make the races later this year.
Standing in Arkansas, STORM AND A HALF, an unraced stallion by Storm Cat out
of the Seeking the Gold mare At the Half, is making a name for himself as a sire of early
winners. With two crops to race, he has sired four stakes winners and earned his
“A+” rating through eight 2005 debut winners, including a 12-length romp by Pourthecoaltoit
in a Louisiana Downs maiden race at 23.80-1. With first-time-out winners in
Arkansas, Minnesota, Louisiana, Iowa and Kentucky last year, and more than
40 two-year-olds to race this year, Storm and a Half may be a sire horseplayers should have
on their stable mail.
At stud farther south, at the Asmussen Horse Center in Texas, is the royally
bred SENECA JONES. By Alydar and out of the champion three-year-old filly and
Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Tiffany Lass (Bold Forbes), Seneca Jones has sired several stakes
winners in Texas, including $361K earner Wings of Jones. Many of his offspring
are trained by members of the high-profile Asmussen family, but they still can
provide value as seen with 2005 first-time-out winners Seneca Sugar ($22.80) and
Proud Jones ($14.20). Additionally, handicappers should keep an eye out for
representatives of Seneca Jones in other states considering the second-place finish of Seneca Exceller at odds of
more than 15-1
in his debut last month at Turf Paradise.
The California-based SUGGEST is another well-bred sire who is on the obscure
side as a stallion. Third in the Hollywood Turf Express H. (G3), he is by
Topsider out of the Grade 3-winning Mr. Prospector mare Allusion, who is also
the dam of Louisiana-based sire Bag. Suggest has excelled in the last two years
at producing huge payoffs on his debut winners, including no fewer than four who have returned
more than $40 to a $2 wager. While most of his wins have been achieved
at the smaller West Coast tracks, a filly, Warison, won a maiden at Hollywood
Park for trainer John Sadler at odds of 45-1. Meanwhile the $46.60 payoff from Mathematical’s second-out win in November of 2004 emphasized the importance of
continuing to watch the runners of these sires, especially if their debut can be
deemed a throw-out.
WEST ACRE is another whose pedigree spells stallion. By proven sire of sires
Forty Niner, he comes from the same female family as Pulpit and Tale of the Cat.
Being unraced and standing in Florida, a state that is historically home to many
precocious-type sires, it has been tough for West Acre to get established. He
has just one stakes winner, the Bonnie Miss S. (G2) heroine Ivanavinalot, to his
credit, but 83 percent of his runners have become winners. From relatively small
crops, 10 of West Acre’s first-time starters scored in the last two seasons, including
Nippers, trained by David Braddy, who paid $50 at Calder, and Pain ‘n Temptation,
who returned $66.80 at Arlington Park for conditioner Terrell Gore. West Acre’s first
large crop, more than 60 two-year-olds, will arrive at the track this year and one can
expect his consistency to continue.
The final sire on this list to follow is OLD TOPPER. Being by Gilded Time
and out of a Phone Trick mare, it was no surprise when he showed speed on the track
in winning the Pat O’Brien H. (G3) and the Best Pal S. (G3). With just two crops
to race, Old Topper has sired four stakes winners and 10 performers that won
first time out, including the Steve Specht-trained Top Three, who returned $23 when winning at Golden Gate last November. With 55 two-year-olds this year, Old Topper should be another name to look out for.
| A/A+ First-Time Starter Sires |
| Five Star Day |
| Mutakddim |
| Old Topper |
| Seneca Jones |
| Storm and a Half |
| Suggest |
| Time Bandit |
| West Acre |
Several of these sires are relatively unfamiliar, but they all own good
pedigrees and pass along precocity. Another quality they share is the ability to
produce longshot first-time-out winners, as do many other “A” rated stallions
that can be found in the BRIS Sire Stats book.