HANDICAPPING WITH PRODUCE RECORDS
by Rich Nilsen
When it comes to turf races, maiden events or races with horses stretching
out in distance, knowledge of the dams’ produce records can be the difference
between nailing a boxcar payoff or ripping up losing tickets. Most handicappers
are familiar with sires and their offspring’s common traits, but with only one
foal per year, dams represent a different challenge. This is where possessing
information over the majority of the wagering public represents a true edge.
The American Produce Records (APRs) is the encyclopedia of Thoroughbred mares
dating back to the mid-20th century. Included are more than 50 years of race
records for all registered foals. It is the only product of its kind and the
ultimate source of broodmare records.
Want to know what a particular horse is bred to accomplish? Simply type the
dam’s name or the foal’s name and interpret the results.
Here’s a synopsis of the type of progeny information you’ll uncover for each
and every dam:
* Offspring records separated by Turf, Dirt Routes, Dirt Sprints
* Two-year-old Debut Winners indicated (*)
* First time on the Turf Winners indicated (*)
* Best BRIS Speed Ratings (since 1990) for each category per runner.
* Average Winning Distance (AWD) for every winner.
* Number of Route winners per Route starters (included in the Maiden Stats line
for every two-year-old and three-year-old).
* Dosage index and profile; and Center of Distribution
Let’s look at the example of young, up-and-coming Kentucky Derby (G1) prospect
Strong Contender (Maria’s Mon).
We see that he is the second foal out
of Kopenhagen, who is by stamina
influence Dynaformer. Her first foal is a Salt Lake gelding named Snuff. He
raced 16 times with three wins and earnings of $113,331. The breakdown of his
career record shows that Snuff won three of 10 starts in dirt routes with eight
in-the-money finishes and a career best BRIS Speed Rating of 93. All three of
his career wins came in routes, so clearly this half-brother to Strong Contender
was much better going long. This is even more impressive when you consider that
Snuff is by Salt Lake, who has a low AWD (average winning distance) from his
offspring of 6.3 furlongs, according to Sire Stats 2006. Snuff was also two for
two on wet tracks, which bodes well for Strong Contender if he must face an off
track.
Dosage lovers will also note that Strong Contender has a low Dosage Index of
1.33 and an even lower Center of Distribution of 0.14. Both numbers indicate
strong sources of stamina in the bloodlines. (For a more in-depth article on
using these numbers, read Tim Holland’s article in the Library at Brisnet.com)
Strong Contender made his first start of the year at Gulfstream on February 22
and had little trouble stretching out to one mile. Inexperience may be a major
obstacle en route to the first Saturday in May, but distance will not be an
issue with this son of Maria’s Mon.
I personally use the APRs every day in my handicapping, so I can’t emphasize
enough the edge this information provides. For me it’s very difficult
handicapping many maiden and turf races without applying the American Produce
Records. By adding the APRs into your handicapping, you’ll hold a significant
edge over the wagering public that fails to go the extra mile.