DEROSA’S BLOG
FEBRUARY 25, 2014
A Quarter of the Way to $1 million
by Ed DeRosa
No one said winning $1 million in the
TwinSpires.com Road to the Kentucky Derby SHOWdown would be easy, and one of
the reasons it’s so difficult is a bettor’s tendency to overthink things.
We’re a quarter of the way home (five races down, 15 to go), and 348
players are still alive for the $1 million prize. All that stands in the way
of them and a big novelty check is successful $20 show bets on each of the next
14 prep races plus the Kentucky
Derby.
Those 348 players represent about 15 percent of the 2,308 players who began
the $1 million quest five races ago with the Robert B. Lewis Stakes on February
8 at Santa Anita Park. The 85 percent attrition rate is somewhat surprising
considering that the favorite — while failing to win a single race in question
— has hit the board in all five races. I.e., anyone who took the favorite in
each race (Midnight Hawk, Enterprising, Strong Mandate, Top Billing, and Vicar’s
In Trouble) would still be alive.
I’m not throwing stones, though. My
glass house cracked in the Risen Star Stakes when Rise Up didn’t to the
occasion and sunk a lot of battleships, including
mine. There were 778 players still alive after the Fountain of Youth, and
many of the 430 who missed that race did so because of Rise Up.
If you’re one of those who missed one race, you’re not alone, as 625 players
are tied with four successful wagers. The player with the most successful show
bets after the prep season concludes wins 2015 Kentucky Derby and Oaks tickets,
and anyone with at least one successful bet is eligible for a share of the
$10,000 prize pool for hitting your Derby show bet.
Still, if the current trend continues, and 68.5 percent of players advance
each week, then one or two would still be alive for the $1 million going into
the Derby.
Over on Twitter, only four people remain alive in our
“last longest” competition for $500, a far worse attrition rate than
pari-mutuel players, representing less than 5 percent of the starting players.
Interestingly, all four remaining players used both Enterprising in the El
Camino and Intense Holiday in the Risen Star, and no one has used more than
three favorites.
The four remaining players are @CHERYL_SZ, @FAKEMAVEN, @JBOSWALD68,
and @RSAMAROO46.
Follow them (and @twinspires!)
on Twitter to see who they’re picking in the
Gotham Stakes on Saturday at Aqueduct (click the stakes name for FREE
Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances with comments).
Also this week is the third Kentucky
Derby Future Wager Pool and the only pari-mutuel Kentucky
Oaks Future Wager. Stay tuned to this blog for analysis of both the Gotham
and Future Wagers.