HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
APRIL 10, 2015
by Dick Powell
Three major Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races were run over the weekend and they
might have cleared up the picture a little.
Out in California, Dortmund (Big Brown) was an easy winner of the Santa Anita
Derby (G1) and now goes to Louisville, Kentucky undefeated in six career starts.
He’s big and fast which he will need at Churchill Downs against a bulky field.
And, Dortmund has shown courage in his races when he gutted out victories in
the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) and the Robert Lewis (G2). On Saturday, he gunned
to the front from his rail post position and once he established a clear lead
around the clubhouse turn, the Santa Anita Derby was all over.
Martin Garcia kept the pedal down and created constant velocity, which took
away the late kicks of any horse looking to make up ground. He drew off to a
four-length lead at the eighth-pole and cruised home to a 4 1/4-length win in
the good time of 1:48.73. Dortmund earned a career-best BRIS Speed rating of
106.
As many questions as Dortmund has answered, the nagging one is how does he
respond if he is stopped cold in traffic, which is a likely Derby scenario? He
is fast so he can make his own luck but what always makes the Derby so tough is
that it is almost always the most hotly-contested 10-furlong race of the year.
Will he get cooked in the pace scenario or be able to rate off of it?
The perfect Derby trip for Dortmund is to go early, use his long stride to
cruise in the middle of the race then make the first move when the racing gets
serious. If he is able to get an unobstructed trip, he could replicate his daddy
Big Brown’s Derby win.
The Blue Grass Stakes (G1) was held on the dirt at Keeneland and the results
were very predictable. Carpe Diem (Giant’s Causeway) was the 2-to-5 favorite and
rightfully so since he laid over this field.
The winner of the Breeders Futurity (G1) going two turns at Keeneland in only
his second career start last year for Todd Pletcher, Carpe Diem went on to the
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) as the 9-to-5 favorite. Far back off a hot pace, he
rallied nicely for second, beating Upstart (Flatter) by a nose.
This year, he won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) by five easy lengths and followed
that up on Saturday with an equally easy win in the Blue Grass. Johnny Velazquez
kept him just of a modest pace and won as he pleased. His final time of 1:49.77
earned him a career-best BRIS Speed rating of 102 and he showed in his two
starts this year that there is plenty more in the tank.
Carpe Diem has terrific early speed when asked but what was most impressive
Saturday was how easily he relaxed when Velazquez asked him to. In his career
debut at Saratoga going 5 1/2 furlongs, he led through a first quarter in 21.88
seconds. On Saturday going nine furlongs, he covered his first quarter in 24.38
seconds. Clearly, he has learned his lessons well and will be formidable in the
Derby.
For many, the real head scratcher on Saturday was the TwinSpires.com Wood
Memorial (G1) at Aqueduct. The theory is that if an unknown quantity like
Tencendur (Warrior’s Reward) can run a good second, how good can the rest be? I
am not buying it since I have been high on Tencendur all along.
Frosted (Tapit) looked like a winner turning for home in the Fountain of
Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream two months ago. As good as he looked, he
suddenly ran out of energy and it was back to the drawing board for Kiaran
McLaughlin and his team.
In addition to changing his equipment and rider, Frosted had a minor surgical
procedure that corrected a trapped epiglottis. He was a new horse on Saturday
and he had to be because Tencendur was finally getting his act together.
These were my comments in the March 6, 2015 edition of Handicapping Insights
regarding Tencendur’s chances in the Gotham Stakes:
The horse that I think can pull off the upset here is Tencendur. He showed
in the Withers that he can compete with these but when the running got serious,
he refused to change leads. Since then, blinkers have been added and the results
have been spectacular; a fastest of 99 half-mile breeze on February 21 and a
fastest of 35 five-furlong breeze on March 1. Cornelio Velasquez worked him in
both starts and is back aboard on Saturday.
Tencendur is by a hot sire and his female family has been heating up. He
is a half-brother to Mother Russia (Mayakovsky), who won six stakes races and
more than $528K. She has produced Golden Barrows (Tapit), a Japan stakes winner
and one of their leading three-year-olds, and her two-year-old by Kitten’s Joy
was an RNA for $390,000 at the Fasig-Tipton sale on Wednesday.
What I like about Tencendur is his cruising speed and if the blinkers are
working as well as it looks like they are in the morning, he will run much
better in the stretch. He’s 8-to-1 in the morning line and worth the price.
Unfortunately, nothing worked out for Tencendur in the Gotham and here is
what I wrote the following week in the March 13, 2015, edition of Handicapping
Insights:
My pick of Tencendur (Warrior’s Reward) learned nothing from the addition
of blinkers. He still lugged in while racing extremely wide and would run for
five strides then switch off. Even so, it looked like he would get second at the
eighth pole but lugged in some more in a frustrating performance. Considering he
ran 34 feet farther than the winner on the worst part of the track, it showed he
has graded stakes talent. Look for him to come back in the Wood Memorial (G1) on
the Aqueduct main track.
Owner/Breeders Phil Birsh and trainer George Weaver never lost faith in the
17-hand colt that was an imposing presence in the Aqueduct paddock on Saturday.
His new rider, Jose Ortiz, hustled him away from the gate and staked out a wide,
but clear trip down the backstretch.
Despite being dismissed at almost 22-to-1 odds, here was Tencendur using his
huge stride to cruise down the backstretch. Around the far turn, Ortiz made his
move and he looked like a winner for about a quarter mile. The only threat was
coming in the Godolphin blue of Frosted and the rest were out of it.
The two colts, coming off disappointing runs, were laying it all on the line
with a $1 million on the line. Tencendur might have made the lead too early but
there was nothing Ortiz could do about it. He tried to open up and separate but
Tencendur, never in this position before, did not know what to do. The blinkers
that had been added before the Gotham might have hurt his ability to fight back
since he could not see Frosted until it was too late.
Frosted went on to win by two lengths in 1:50.31 and earned a career-best
BRIS Speed rating of 107. Tencendur received a 105 and they presently have the
first and third-highest BRIS speed ratings, pending the results of Saturday’s
Arkansas Derby (G1), heading into the Derby (Dortmund is second at 106 and
Materiality [Afleet Alex] is tied for third).
What the Wood showed is that the top two finishers belong in any conversation
of horses coming into the Derby the right way. Many of their contemporaries have
already run their career-best races but these two are getting better at the
right time.