Saturday’s Derby (Eng-G1) seems to hinge on one question, and only Golden
Horn (Cape Cross) can supply the answer as he enters the final quarter-mile of
Tesio’s famed ultimate test of the Thoroughbred.
There is no doubt that Anthony Oppenheimer’s homebred has a distinct class
edge over all of his rivals based on his emphatic success in the premier trial,
York’s Dante S. (Eng-G2) May 14, which was termed a “mini Derby” at the time.
Form, mentality and physicality aside, however, the bay enters this race
without all boxes ticked, as he is unproven at this trip and his pedigree does
not shout a mile and a half out loud. Under the second dam is a mix of stamina
and speed, with the specialist miler Rebecca Sharp (Machiavellian) sitting
alongside the stout middle-distance black-type performers Mystic Knight
(Caerleon) and Hidden Hope (Daylami), so there is promise blended with the
customary doubt.
His owner-breeder has always stated that he is a 10-furlong horse and the
Prix du Jockey Club (Fr-G1) was first on the wish list prior to his Dante romp,
but the irresistible lure of Epsom’s blue riband proved too intoxicating for an
esteemed racing and breeding operation that has been denied it for so long.
“I didn’t have to do much arm-twisting after the Dante, as his owner likened
the situation to a casino — he had won the money and it was there on the table
to supplement for the Derby,” John Gosden explained. “There is a question about
his stamina, but he relaxes well.”
Oppenheimer added, “He’s one of those horses who likes to go to sleep most of
the time; he’s very relaxed. He’s quite happy switched off behind like he was in
the Dante until someone says, ‘Off we go.’ With luck, he should switch off in
the Derby. He’s built as if you were going to build a Derby horse — size,
height, everything. Of course, we don’t know how any of them will come down the
hill.”
Third behind Golden Horn at York was Elm Park (Phoenix Reach), who was
returning from his winter break having had to sidestep the Two Thousand Guineas
(Eng-G1) due to fast ground. Qatar Racing’s Royal Lodge S. (Eng-G2) and Racing
Post Trophy (Eng-G1) winner has the two-year-old form to suggest he can be a
leading player in any Derby and there was little in his Dante performance to
lessen enthusiasm for his prospects here.
Andrew Balding, who is yet to emulate his father Ian’s win in this with Mill
Reef in 1971, is saddling his best chance yet and is in positive mood despite
the warm drying weather playing against his charge.
“His weight has not changed dramatically from York, but he is definitely a
bit tighter,” he said. “He dropped a bit after the Dante because he had a hard
race, but is now the same weight as he went into it. He was just leg-weary in
the Dante — he tied up in the last 100 yards which, was purely down to fitness
and having his first race for such a long time.”
Balding said the effort should put Elm Park “spot on” for the Derby.
“Thirteen lengths back to the fourth says it all, but we needed to have a
run,” he said. “You don’t mind getting beaten in the Dante if you are going to
win the Derby. He is a very relaxed horse and he has got a bit of class. We had
a perfectly satisfactory prep run, so I think we have every reason to be
optimistic. I think his biggest strength is his engine — his third gear is like
most horses’ fifth gear.”
Andrea Atzeni, who was second on Kingston Hill (Mastercraftsman) on his first
ride in this 12 months ago, added, “I think the Dante has put him spot-on for
the Derby, as he’s come on a lot since and as long as the ground is safe it
won’t be a problem. The Dante was a proper race and definitely the best trial of
the year and the best horse won on the day, but I think Elm Park will improve a
lot for it and we’ll see the best of him stepping up to a mile and a half now.”
Ken Condon has the kind of horse a small trainer can only dream of in Success
Days (Jeremy) and he is the best of the Irish raiders based on his authoritative
wins in the Ballysax S. (Ire-G3) and Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial (Ire-G3) over
10 furlongs at Leopardstown April 12 and May 10, respectively. Those normally
key trials lacked a major Ballydoyle influence for the first time in recent
history this year, with John F Kennedy (Galileo) flopping in the first of them
and just a modest representative of Rosegreen tackling the latter.
That factor casts a question mark over the form and also they were staged on
testing ground vastly contrasting to what he will encounter here, but the manner
of the two displays leaves an indelible mark. Jockey Shane Foley is set the task
of steering the charismatic grey around Epsom’s tricky contours and he is
unfazed by the prospect.
“With every run he has improved and his last bit of work was very good,
although he never does too much at home,” he said. “We are looking forward to it
and his temperament is good–he only does what he has to — and he jumps and
travels in his races, so we think he’ll handle the track. He’s very good on slow
ground, but he has won on good so we’re very hopeful. If the rain comes, I won’t
be complaining and the trip will be no bother to him.”
Australia was heavily favored when making it a fifth renewal for Aidan
O’Brien in 2014, but the master of Ballydoyle is on the fringes this time with
three likeable colts who have chances without flashing the kind of talent that
is part and parcel of a Derby winner. The recent market support and jockey
placement suggests that Giovanni Canaletto (Galileo) is clearly best of the
trio, and it is notable that his full-brother Ruler of the World made several
quick leaps forward when successful here two years ago.
Second to the filly Curvy (Galileo) in the Gallinule S. (Ire-G3) over 10
furlongs at The Curragh May 24, the chestnut — who sported a rare Mill
Reef-style noseband for the stable there — will be suited by this rise in
distance and wears cheekpieces as his sibling did in 2013. Jockey Ryan Moore is
looking for a third British classic in the Tabor silks so far in 2014, and
O’Brien said, “It’s only two weeks since the Gallinule, but he came out of it
very well and seems to be in good form. Obviously, it’s a step quicker than
ideal but he came home well there and the winner is a very progressive filly.”
Kilimanjaro (High Chaparral) looked a highly unlikely Derby contender on his
first two unplaced maiden starts, but the fitting of a hood has brought out all
the hidden talent, and he is a strong stayer who is unbeaten in that particular
piece of headgear. He bids to become the first since High-Rise to win the Derby
after taking the Lingfield Derby Trial May 9, and O’Brien said of him, “He won
nicely at Lingfield and got the mile and a half well. He’s a big cruiser and
came home very well that day, so it’s setting up nicely for him as well. Better
ground will suit everybody.”
The Derby is rarely won by an outsider, with 17 years having passed since a
longshot prevailed — the aforementioned High-Rise traded at 20-1 when he
succeeded then — but one who possesses the qualities to outrun his current odds
is Storm the Stars (Sea the Stars). Runner-up to Hans Holbein (Montjeu) in the
May 7 Chester Vase (Eng-G3), the bay made all to land Goodwood’s Cocked Hat S.
— the old “Predominate” — over 11 furlongs May 22 and is certain to be
prominently placed with stamina no issue. William Haggas is not sure how the
immature colt will handle the stresses and strains of Derby day.
“I’m not quite sure he’s ready for the Derby occasion,” his trainer warned.
“He sweated profusely at Goodwood, but he didn’t do a lot wrong in the race.
He’s certain to stay, but he has about a stone to find to win a Derby, I think.
“He has made a good leap forward from every run he’s had this year, so he’s
going the right way. He went round Chester and Goodwood without difficulty, so I
would not be worried about his ability to handle Epsom. He is a well-balanced
horse who is light on his feet. He is just a baby who has needed the experience
of racing and my horses are in much better form now than when he was running
earlier in the season.”
Another with a squeak at a big starting price is Moheet (High Chaparral), who
was unlucky not to finish closer than eighth in the Two Thousand Guineas at
Newmarket when last seen five weeks ago. Richard Hannon is positive about his
claims despite his low-key profile.
“Moheet has always worked like a good horse and we have treated him like one
by giving him plenty of time,” he explained. “He ran okay in the Guineas and if
he handles the track he might surprise a few people by outrunning his odds.”
Before Aidan O’Brien arrived on the scene, it was Andre Fabre who ruled the
roost in the Coronation Cup (Eng-G1), and the success of Swain in 1996 was a
third straight and fifth overall in the Epsom feature for Chantilly’s maitre.
Shirocco has subsequently added a sixth during the period of Ballydoyle’s second
empire, and in the absence of a representative of that Co. Tipperary powerhouse
Saturday’s renewal could be primed for Fabre to equal Aidan O’Brien’s record
courtesy of Flintshire (Dansili).
Runner-up to Dolniya (Azamour) in both a March 3 Chantilly conditions event
— which served as a warm-up for the Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE-G1) — and in the
main event itself at Meydan on World Cup night March 28, Khalid Abdullah’s Hong
Kong Vase (HK-G1) winner tries to bring down the filly once again and end a
sequence of seconds in top-class European events, such as this race 12 months
ago and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1).
“Flintshire looks good, but might just be a bit short of work prior to
Saturday as he has not had a race since March,” his trainer warned. “I had to
choose between running him here and going for the Grand Prix de Chantilly, but
that is only a Group 2 and in the end the ground came up soft, which he hates,
so I am happy that I have made the correct decision to wait for this.”
Fabre was respectful of the competition, saying, “Dolniya is obviously the
mare to beat, but Flintshire has the advantage of knowing the course. I am a bit
worried about the possibility of a slow pace but, although it might not be a
furious gallop, it should not make a difference as long as he is ridden quite
prominently.”
Alain de Royer-Dupre has worked his familiar magic with Dolniya, who was
caressed through her light sophomore campaign, which included a win in the Prix
de Malleret (Fr-G2) at Saint-Cloud in June and fifth in the Arc. Now a different
proposition with another winter’s strengthening in her limbs, His Highness The
Aga Khan’s bay has demonstrated better acceleration than her chief opponent so
far in 2015, and that could be key again.
“Dolniya needed time to get over her trip to Dubai and was just about ready
to run a month ago in the Prix Ganay only for the ground to go soft, so I
withdrew her,” de Royer-Dupre commented. “She has improved a lot in the weeks
since then and looks perfect now. The main question with her is how she will
handle the undulations at Epsom. Although she has good balance, she is a very
big filly. She certainly has the class if trying to deal with the course does
not take too much out of her. She is a very easy ride and can make the running
if necessary.”
None of the remainder have looked remotely like Coronation Cup winners so far
in their career, and the odds of 14-1 bar the French match-up sums up their
chances. Pether’s Moon (Dylan Thomas) has to rebound from an
uncharacteristically disappointing effort when a well-beaten third in the Jockey
Club S. (Eng-G2) at Newmarket May 2, but trainer Richard Hannon is taking heart
from his prior effort when second under a penalty in Newbury’s John Porter S.
(Eng-G3) April 18.
“He ran a smashing race in the John Porter and had plenty on his plate
subsequently in the Jockey Club,” he commented. “Although this is his first time
at Epsom, he has won twice at Goodwood so I’d be hopeful that he would cope with
the undulations.”
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