ROAD TO THE TRIPLE CROWN
FEBRUARY 2, 2005
by James Scully
Following two slow weeks, the Road to the Triple Crown picks up on Saturday
with a trio of stakes races. Gulfstream Park will host the Holy Bull S. (G3) and
Hutcheson S. (G2), and the Sham S. will take place at Santa Anita.
The 1 1/8-mile Holy Bull holds the most appeal because it will feature the
unbeaten HIGH FLY (Atticus), who comes off a nine-length romp in the one-mile
Aventura S. The Bill White-trained colt will travel around two turns for the
first time in the Holy Bull. Among those expected to challenge him are DEAREST
MON (Maria’s Mon), who has won his last two starts for conditioner Richard Violette and will make his stakes bow off a nice allowance score at Gulfstream
Park in early January.
The unbeaten three-year-old LOST IN THE FOG (Lost Soldier) was on display
last Saturday at Gulfstream Park and recorded a convincing 4 1/2-length score in
the six-furlong Sunshine Millions Dash. Now three-for-three in his career, the
Florida-bred colt owns a 2.47 dosage as well as several stamina influences in
his pedigree. He’s earned BRIS Speed ratings of 105 and 107 for his last two
outings and will be mentioned as a Kentucky Derby candidate in some circles.
However, forget the Run for the Roses with Lost in the Fog. The talented colt is
pre-disposed to shorter distances at this point in his career and won’t be able
to carry his speed 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs.
The success of Smarty Jones, Funny Cide (Distorted Humor) and War Emblem
lends itself to the temptation to include almost any fast three-year-old among the discussion of Kentucky Derby candidates nowadays. We
can often make a case based on something in a horse’s pedigree, like a broodmare
sire winning a Grade 1 turf route at 1 1/2 miles or a great-grandsire being a
European classic winner that 10 furlongs will be within the young horse’s scope.
But speedy horses who perform better at sprint distances than routes
aren’t ideal prospects for American classic races.
DECLAN’S MOON (Malibu Moon) and AFLEET ALEX (Northern Afleet) are two prime
examples. The former reeled off three impressive sprint victories before earning
the lowest Speed figure of his career when trying two turns in the Hollywood
Futurity (G1). Afleet Alex went four-for-four in sprints and dropped his final
two appearances going a route. The first came in the one-turn Champagne S. (G1).
In the Breeders’ Cup, Sweet Catomine (Storm Cat) ran nearly a second faster than
him in the Juvenile Fillies (G1) because the boys came home so slowly in the
Juvenile (G1).
These are two highly rated sophomores who could win all of their prep races
before coming up short under 126 pounds in Louisville.
Perhaps some semblance of order can return to the Kentucky Derby in terms of
the winner’s pedigree. Or we could see a horse like ROCKPORT HARBOR (Unbridled’s
Song) continue to make the process of identifying the winner based on breeding
frustrating. Unbridled’s Song is an excellent young sire, but he’s not a great
source of stamina either. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him produce a
Kentucky Derby winner if combined with the right mare, but Rockport Harbor is
out of the confirmed sprinter Regal Miss Copelan, who appeared uncomfortable
when having to run a step past six furlongs. She’s by Copelan, who was a very
good speed sire in Florida.
Rockport Harbor is already an impressive winner at 1 1/8 miles, taking the
Remsen S. (G2) in November, but the difference between nine and 10 furlongs is
too much to overcome for many horses.
There are no definitive answers when analyzing the breeding of Kentucky Derby
hopefuls, but one should take a stand. There are plenty of speed-based
candidates this year who look vulnerable at the Derby distance.
Satish Sanan, who purchased the English-based KINGSGATE BAY (Ire) (Desert Sun
[GB]) as a classic prospect last week, was more realistic than most
when asked about Champagne winner PROUD ACCOLADE (Yes It’s True), who will make
his three-year-old debut in Saturday’s seven-furlong Hutcheson. He stated that
the colt could be a great runner around one turn, but he was unsure about his
ability around two.
Those comments probably shook up some observers who considered every
accomplished three-year-old this year to be a legitimate candidate to win the
Kentucky Derby.