Commentary

COMMENTARY

MAY 27, 2005

Confessions of a Handicapper

by Steve Moody

For someone that was born and raised in Louisville, Kentucky, my first sight
of the famous Churchill Downs Twin Spires in person wasn’t until I was 18 years
old. I had, however, watched the Kentucky Derby on television since the age of
nine. I picked Kauai King to win the Derby because I liked the sound of his name
and watched him go wire-to-wire under Don Brumfield in 1966. I regularly
listened to the race of the day from Keeneland and Churchill Downs on the radio
in the afternoons and would watch when WHAS-TV would televise Saturday racing
from Churchill Downs. It was my first trip to the track back in 1976, though,
that got me hooked on the game.

It was the Saturday of Memorial Day weekend that my friends and I, armed with
racing forms and a selection sheet, arrived at Churchill just in time for the
Daily Double. The horse I had liked in the first was a late scratch, so I looked
for another race to play. In the 3RD race, my choice was horse named Miracle
Judge, ridden by future Hall of Famer Eddie Delahoussaye. When the horse rallied
from just off the pace to win at 9-2 odds, my $5 win ticket was worth $27.50 and
I thought it was an easy game. After a couple of losses, I turned my attention
to the Fleur de Lis H. My selection, Pago Hop, was up close from the start and
held on to win at 6-1 odds, paying $14.60. Another $5 win bet returned $36.50
and emboldened by newfound wealth, I decided to try an exacta in the last race.
I found out the meaning of the word “split” when my horses finished first and
third. Overall, it was still a profitable day and I soon became a regular at the
track, going by myself when I couldn’t find anyone else to go.

Nearly 30 years have gone by since that first trip to Churchill Downs and
nearly half the time has been spent writing comments and making selections for
The Kentucky Handicapper’s Sheet. In all that time, I can never remember when
I’ve seen the Churchill main track, nearly always unbiased, play like it has
played this meet. Front-running winners have been hard to come by and even the
stalkers are having trouble winning at most distances. The majority of winners
are coming from off the pace, many from well back. Even more dramatic than the
running-style bias has been the very poor performance of horses running on the
inside. The rail has been absolutely terrible at every distance on the main
track. It’s no wonder that rider Calvin Borel, nicknamed Calvin “Bo-rail” by the
fans because of his affinity for rail-skimming rides, has struggled this meet
with a 4 for 84 (5 percent) record. Some track bias statistics from the most
popular distances follow.

6 furlongs

# Races:		33
% Wire:		18%

Runstyle:		Early		Speed		Late		Speed
		E		E/P		P		S
%Win		18%		18%		27%		36%
Post Bias:		Rail		1-3		4-7		8+
Avg. Win %		6%		13%		17%		5%

7 furlongs

# Races:		24
% Wire:		4%

Runstyle:		Early		Speed		Late		Speed
		E		E/P		P		S
%Win		4%		50%		21%		25%
Post Bias:		Rail		1-3		4-7		8+
Avg. Win %		6%		13%		17%		5%

1 1/16 miles

# Races:		20
% Wire:		10%

Runstyle:		Early		Speed		Late		Speed
		E		E/P		P		S
%Win		15%		15%		50%		20%
Post Bias:		Rail		1-3		4-7		8+
Avg. Win %		5%		7%		22%		10%

Post position stats for all dirt races are as follows:

For Dirt Starts

PP		Sts		Win%		ITM%		$2ROI
1		151		7%		28%		-1.19
2		151		10%		35%		0.09
3		151		13%		45%		-0.69
4		151		11%		45%		-0.67
5		149		10%		31%		-0.82
6		142		17%		42%		-0.48
7		118		17%		38%		0.44
8		81		18%		39%		0.83
9		55		3%		23%		-1.50
10		27		14%		44%		4.78
11		15		20%		33%		-0.71
12		5		0%		60%		-2.00
13 & Up		8		0%		12%		-2.00

Contrast the poor performance of the rail at Churchill with other tracks
currently running.

Main track – all conditions

Belmont		13%
Arlington		11%
Hollywood		15%
Calder		15%
Pimlico		17%

Late runners have had the edge at most distances with the best posts by far
being 4,5,6,and 7. One of the keys to winning so far this meet, no matter what
your running style, is to work your way off the rail. We’ve seen race after race
this meet with horses that have the lead in the stretch, but are down on the
inside and get passed late. At most tracks, horses on the rail usually fight
back when headed, but that has rarely been the case at Churchill this year.

Astute handicappers will be able to take advantage of this situation for the
rest this meet. As horses begin to run back, those that show poor past
performance lines that have had rail trips and/or run against the prevailing
bias can be excused and worth another look. They can easily come back to score
at some nice prices with a more favorable trip. It also pays to look at riders
that are winning at a good percentage. Most are not winning solely because
they’re on the best horses, but also because they can read the Form and know how
to get to the best part of the racetrack.

Another Memorial Day weekend is upon us. I’ll be at Churchill trying to find
another Miracle Judge and Pago Hop. Chances are they’ll be running from off the
pace and off the rail.