BREEDERS’ CUP EXOTICS
OCTOBER 25, 2005
by Richard Nilsen
If there is one day where you can make a huge score, it’s the Breeders’ Cup
World Thoroughbred Championships. With huge mutuel pools for all the wagering
options, no other race day, not even Kentucky Derby Day, offers the potential to
take down a monster payoff.
You don’t even have to hit the Ultra Pick 6 to win big on Saturday. As we
will see from this extensive exotics study, there are plenty of scores to be had
in the exacta and trifecta pools.
However, let’s begin with a little trivia. Which Breeders’ Cup race offered
the first trifecta wager? Not the first Cup race in 1984. Amazingly, the 1990 Classic (G1) was the first race to offer this popular
wager. The first six years of the Breeders’ Cup did not have a trifecta bet on
the wagering menu. As strange as it sounds, it was not until 1994 that a trifecta was offered on every race.
The Breeders’ Cup was a little more progressive with the exacta, offering it
on the full card beginning in 1988. However, several Cup races prior to that
only allowed straight wagering (win, place and show).
Boy, have times changed. Now horseplayers can choose from superfectas,
rolling Pick 3s, rolling Pick 4s, the Ultra Pick 6, and even Head-to-Head
wagers.
Average Payoffs
In 21 years of Breeders’ Cup action, 142 exactas and 84 trifectas have been
offered. The average $2 exacta has returned $224. The average $1 trifecta payoff
has been just over $1,420, with more than half resulting in taxable trifectas. Yes,
Uncle Sam would prefer that you play the trifecta!
“There is so much value in every pool even with the favorites involved. You
only have to be right in one race on Breeders’ Cup day to turn a nice profit,”
explained Ken Kirchner, NTRA Senior Vice President of Product Development.
Odds-on Analysis
There have been 20 exactas that involved an odds-on favorite who finished
first or second. The average payoff of those was $39. Consider that an odds-on horse is
more likely to win as to run second.
The average $1 trifecta payoff has been $247 when an odds-on runner has
finished in the money. The high payoff from the 10 occurrences was $644.10 in
the 1996 Classic when Cigar finished third at 3-5.
Field Size
As one might expect, field size can have a significant bearing on the exotic
payoffs. Since there have been so many full fields over the past few years, I
used nine horses as the cutoff for this analysis. There have been 39 Breeders’
Cup events with nine or fewer betting interests and the average exacta has
returned $127. The average trifecta has paid $733. Winning favorites have scored
14 times at a 35.9 percent rate.
There have been many more races with at least 10 betting interests, 114, in
fact. The average exacta has returned a healthy $250, while the average trifecta
has returned $1,589. Winning favorites have scored 38 times for exactly one out
of three races, slightly less than the overall average.
Longshot Analysis
From the 153 Breeders’ Cup races to date, how many times do you think a longshot at odds of 20-1 or higher has placed first or second? Would you believe
47 times! That’s a lot of longshots in the top two. In fact, it has happened in
30 percent of all the Breeders’ Cup races.
If you were lucky enough to hit the exacta involving one of these longshots,
on average, you would have received $475 for every $2 wagered.
Note that only once have the top two finishers both been 20-1 or higher.
Ultra Pick-6
For the first time, in an effort to provide its fans with the most attractive
wagering program, the race order of the 22nd Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred
Championships was determined when pre-entries were released on October 19.
“Since the Breeders’ Cup is the greatest betting day in all of sports, we
would like to present our fans with the highest caliber wagering card possible
by providing a race order that we believe will generate the largest pools and
potentially greater payouts than ever before.” Kirchner said. “From our
perspective we want to maximize interest in the card and wagering throughout the
day.
“In two of the last six years we had single winners of the Ultra Pick-6
paying $3.1 and 2.7 million. In another two of the six years, we had no winners.
Twice we have had multiple winners. So, you can see that in four of the past six
years, a horseplayer had the potential to become a millionaire by hitting the
Ultra Pick 6.”
Last year’s Ultra Pick 6 produced no perfect tickets from a pool of $4.6
million, but 61 tickets that contained 5 winners paid $56,149 each. The
AmericaTab Pick-6 Players’ Pool took down this consolation five times for a
$280,748 pre-tax return. The Players’ Pool was a unique concept in which account
wagering members could pool their resources (minimum contribution of $10) into
one large ticket. BrisBET.com is one of the only account wagering sites that
allows horseplayers to be a part of this exciting opportunity.
According to Kirchner, with the Canadian pools now co-mingling into the Pick
6 pools here for the first time, this year’s Ultra Pick 6 Pool may reach $5
million. Whether you’re part of the Players’ Pool, joining forces with friends,
or wagering on your own, the Ultra Pick 6 is an opportunity for a huge score
that’s hard to pass up.
Trifecta Strategies
As we’ve seen from the exotics study, the trifecta offers players the chance
to take down a big payoff with every Breeders’ Cup race. Instead of spreading
your money around – $15 here, $25 there – take a good swing at one or two
trifectas on the card.
Begin by identifying one or two key horses and the must-use runners
underneath. With the trifecta, you can key one horse over six runners at a cost
of only $30. Or, you can wheel two horses (one must win) over six horses, which
of course would include the top two, for only $40. Another variation would
include going deep in the third tier. Key one horse over the five other
contenders and use ALL in the third slot. Based on a 14-horse field, that’s a
$60 wager. You could use the “key” horse in the second slot, putting the five
runners on top, for an additional $60. Below are the examples just discussed:
| #1 keyed over #2, 3, 4, 5,
6, 7 = $30 |
| #1, 2 with #1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6 with #1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 = $40 |
| #1 with #2, 3, 4, 5, 6 with
ALL = $60 |
| #2, 3, 4, 5, 6 with #1 with
ALL = $60 |
Of course, there are plenty of ways to play the trifecta. By concentrating on
one or two good opportunities, you’ll have the time to come up with the correct
wagering strategy and increase your chances of winning. Best of luck on racing’s
greatest day!
— Rich Nilsen is on the expert panel for the AmericaTab Pick-6 Players’
Pool which cashed for $280,748 in winnings last year. Back for another try this
year, the Players’ Pool is now open at BrisBET.com.