BELMONT REPORT
MAY 20, 2010
by James Scully
The 142nd running of the Belmont S. (G1) on June 5 won’t contain the winners
of the first two legs of the Triple Crown, Kentucky Derby (G1) winner SUPER
SAVER (Maria’s Mon) and Preakness S. (G1) victor LOOKIN AT LUCKY (Smart Strike),
but it’s setting up to be a competitive affair with a large field. Let’s take a
look back at Saturday’s Preakness before discussing the leading contenders in
the Belmont.
Lookin at Lucky made amends for his troubled sixth-place effort as the
favorite in the Derby two weeks earlier, winning by three-quarters of a length
over FIRST DUDE (Stephen Got Even) at Pimlico. The near 5-2 second choice among
12 rivals, the Bob Baffert-trained colt rated in midpack before launching his
move on the far turn and struck the lead in upper stretch. Pacesetter First Dude
battled back gamely to draw even in midstretch, but Lookin at Lucky was clearly
going best and surged clear approaching the wire.
A commendable 10-7-1-1 in his career, Lookin at Lucky has never lost without
trouble. He captured the Rebel S. (G2) earlier this season despite
adversity, but bad trips were too much to overcome in the Derby, Santa Anita
Derby (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). I thought he displayed tremendous
resiliency to bounce back from the dreadful Derby experience, netting a
career-best 104 BRIS Speed rating in the process, and clearly separated himself
from the rest of the three-year-old division. Lookin at Lucky will be freshened
and pointed toward the $1 million Haskell (G1) on August 1.
First Dude showed that he’s a colt with a bright future. Only a maiden
winner, the Dale Romans pupil dropped his first two stakes attempts, finishing
fifth in the Florida Derby (G1) and third in the Blue Grass S. (G1), and had never
earned a Speed rating better than 96 before the Preakness. But the bay was
flattered by FLY DOWN (Mineshaft),
who narrowly defeated his rival in a February allowance at Gulfstream and went
on to post an impressive victory in the recent Dwyer S. (G2), and First
Dude trained sensationally in advance of the second leg of the Triple Crown. He
established wicked early fractions of :22 4/5 and :46 2/5 while stretching out
to 1 3/16 miles and responded when challenged leaving the far turn, courageously
holding the place over the more seasoned third-place finisher, JACKSON BEND
(Hear No Evil).
Super Saver secured a favorable stalking position during the early stages but
came up empty after turning for home, weakening to eighth, 11 3/4 lengths behind
the winner. It was the worst Preakness finish by a Derby winner since 1970, and
the Todd Pletcher-trained colt will now receive some time off to prepare for a
summer campaign.
Top Belmont prospects
Nick Zito hasn’t won a Derby (1991 and 1994) or Preakness (1996) in a long
time, but the Hall of Famer is a hot commodity when it comes to the 1 1/2-mile
Belmont, garnering two of the last six editions of the 1 1/2-mile classic. After
playing the role of giant-killer with Birdstone (2004) and Da’ Tara (Tiznow) (2006),
derailing the respective Triple Crown bids of Smarty Jones and Big Brown, Zito
will be a target in the 2010 Belmont with ICE BOX (Pulpit)
and Fly Down.
Ice Box is the likely morning-line choice off his runner-up finish in the
Derby. After being steadied early in the 20-horse field, the chestnut lost any
chance for the win at Churchill Downs when forced to alter course repeatedly
through the stretch drive. He passed a slew of runners in the final furlongs,
though, and proved that his Florida Derby (G1) upset was no fluke. Ice Box
shouldn’t be underestimated, but his late-running style is a concern in the
Belmont, which is rarely won by deep closers. And I don’t see much speed lining
up for this year’s race.
Fly Down won’t be as far back as his stablemate during the early stages and
is already proven over “Big Sandy,” winning the May 8 Dwyer by six lengths over
the heavily-favored DROSSELMEYER (Distorted Humor). He registered career-best
BRIS Speed (101) and Late Pace (114) ratings that afternoon and appears to be
hitting his best stride presently for his savvy conditioner.
First Dude will take a lot of betting action and, barring the addition of any
other front runners, appears to own a tactical advantage with his speed. The big
concern is a regression off the short rest; he must bounce back from a grueling
effort that was easily a career-best.
The D. Wayne Lukas-trained DUBLIN (Afleet Alex) will be the only horse to
compete in all three legs of the 2010 Triple Crown and the chestnut colt ran
well to claim fifth in the Preakness following a terrible beginning. The chart
tells the whole story: “Dublin bore out at the break then steadied to avoid the
outrider…”. I was surprised to see the hard-trying colt finish up as well as
he did after being taken his normal running style (103 Late Pace number). He’ll
be more forwardly placed next time and looms a serious threat to record his
first win of the year if he stays the 1 1/2-mile trip.
Drosselmeyer has been well-regarded all year, but he came up a little short
his first two stakes starts and missed the Derby due to insufficient graded
earnings. After breaking a little slow in the Dwyer, the Bill Mott trainee
wasn’t able to keep up with Fly Down on the far turn and had no chance to catch
his rival in the stretch. The chestnut hasn’t cornered well in any of his four
starts this season, but he remains eligible to put it all together eventually.
Drosselmeyer will receive a rider switch from Kent Desormeaux and should relish
the extended distance.
Ice Box, Fly Down, First Dude, Dublin and Drosselmeyer are the leading
contenders for this year’s Belmont, and we’ll continue to break down the field
next week.