HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
FEBRUARY 25, 2011
by Dick Powell
The road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) heated up last weekend with major prep
races held in Louisiana and California. At Fair Grounds, the Risen Star S. (G2)
was run going 1 1/16 miles on the main track and unlike the previous stakes
there for three-year-olds, this one attracted a good field with $300,000 in graded earnings
up for grabs.
A field of 10 went into the gate and the betting public settled on Rogue
Romance (Smarty Jones) as the narrow favorite over Machen (Distorted Humor) with
Florida shipper MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno) third in the betting at 7-2. I liked
Rogue Romance to win but didn’t like that he was bet down to 21-10 favoritism.
Mucho Macho Man has been keeping excellent company recently with two seconds
behind TO HONOR AND SERVE (Bernardini) last year at Aqueduct and then a fourth
behind DIALED IN (Mineshaft) to start his sophomore campaign last out in the Holy Bull S. (G3). Trainer
Kathy Ritvo was removing blinkers and Rajiv Maragh was in to ride for the
injured Eibar Coa.
At the start of the race, Kerwin Clark sent Decisive Moment (With
Distinction) to the front through a first quarter in :24.67. Maragh had Mucho
Macho Man stalking the leader while Mike Smith had Santiva (Giant’s Causeway)
applying pressure on the outside. Usually when there is major pace pressure, the
pace quickens but the half was only run in :49.24 and the three-quarters in 1:13.65.
Mucho Macho Man was game as could be, not allowing Santiva to get by him on
the outside but having Decisive Moment measured to his inside. Maragh turned him
loose around the far turn and he put Santiva away while bracing for some
challenges that never came.
Prior to the Risen Star, Machen was unbeaten in two starts over the track and was visually impressive
both times. My one negative on him was when he took the lead last out in his
two-turn debut, he bore out quite severely in the run to the finish. It could
have been greenness or it could have been favoring a sore leg but not something
you want to see. He did not have the big late kick that he showed in his first
two starts and checked in a well-beaten fourth.
Rogue Romance tried to make a late run but he had a strange trip. Besides the
comment line that indicated that he was in tight twice during the race, his
running line reads an unusual 7, 5, 7, 5, 3. When he got clear turning for home,
he did finish well but was no match for the winner.
Mucho Macho Man took advantage of the slow pace and finished his last
five-sixteenths in :30.33. His final time for the 1 1/16 miles was a good 1:43.98 and he
earned a BRIS Speed rating of 97 — a slight drop from his last two starts but considering the
pace was slow and the removal of blinkers helped him relax, it was a big effort
for him. Santiva checked in second in his first start since November when he won
the Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2) at Churchill.
Out at Santa Anita, Bob Baffert sent out THE FACTOR (War Front) for his
stakes debut in the San Vicente S. (G3) on the dirt going seven furlongs. An
incredible maiden winner on opening day when he set a track record of 1:06.98
for six furlongs, this was the stakes debut for a horse that cannot be taken seriously
as a classic contender. He’s fast and he’s a sprinter, and if kept to sprinting
he could be a champion sprinter.
As fast as The Factor is, it is his middle fractions that separates him from
his competition. In the San Vicente, he held a slight head advantage while
dueling through a first quarter
of :22.20 but then threw in a :21.21 second quarter. Not many horses can survive
that kind of pressure and The Factor began to take command around the far turn.
He had a clear lead in the lane and after hitting six furlongs in 1:07.31, he
held on by three parts of a length to win in 1:20.34.
After the race, Baffert indicated that his next start might come at Sunland
Park for his two-turn debut. If he really thought he had himself a classic
contender, he would be racing at a major circuit so I think Baffert knows what
he has and what he has is a very fast horse.
*****
Speaking of fast horses, the fastest horse in the world was in action at
Flemington Racecourse last weekend in Melbourne, Australia. BLACK CAVIAR (Bel
Espirit) was in the five-furlong Lighting S. (Aus-G1) down the straightaway and
was made the heavy favorite. A winner of her last start going six furlongs in
1:07 and change, she was unbeaten in eight career starts going into the Lighting
and was facing a good field.
Right from the start, Black Caviar broke well and sat just off the pace through the
first quarter-mile. Halfway home, her rider, Luke Nolen, let it out a notch and
she suddenly was separating herself from the field without any visible
encouragement from Nolen. Not only did Nolen not use his whip at any time, he
never used his hands as he kept them steady and Black Caviar pulled away to a
remarkable three-length win while being completely throttled down at the finish.
She is now being compared to Australia’s greatest sprinters of all time, and
considering how good their sprinters have done in international competition,
it’s quite a compliment. But, after the race, her trainer Peter Moody threw a
bucket of cold water on any plans of her going overseas to race. He laughed when
asked if he would be taking her on the road for the world to see and said that
there are televisions around the world for everyone to watch her race and that
airplanes do go to Australia for anyone who wants to race against her. He was
having a good time after the race and we’ll see how determined he is to keep her
home.