HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
NOVEMBER 25, 2011
by Dick Powell
This is one of my favorite weekends of horse racing and since Churchill Downs
began to include their second “Stars of Tomorrow” racecard on the last Saturday
of their fall meet, it might be my favorite.
The highlight of Friday will be the Grade 1 Clark Handicap for
three-year-olds and up going nine furlongs on the Churchill main track. The
field is highlighted by 2011 Belmont Stakes winner RULER ON ICE and Grade 1
Jockey Club Gold Cup winner FLAT OUT. Throw in nine other entrants and this
year’s renewal looks very competitive.
The question for the two top choices on the morning line is how did they come
out of the Breeders’ Cup Classic three weeks ago? Ruler on Ice finished third
that day with a game rally. After the race, it was discovered that he threw a
shoe so his effort was even better than it looked. Trainer Kelly Breen worked
him a half-mile last week, but I can’t imagine that he’s coming into the Clark
the way that he wanted him to.
Flat Out has been the model of consistency all year except for two
off-the-board performances which both happened on the Churchill main track. He’s
earned more than $1.1 million this year and will try to improve his chances for
an Eclipse Award with a win here. I don’t see anything different about the
Churchill main track that is going to be any different from his prior starts
over it.
If you are looking for a longshot, take a look at MISTER MARTI GRAS. He’s won
two Grade 3 stakes in his last three starts including a win over the track last
out in the mud. He shows wins this year in the mud, on a fast track, on
synthetic and on turf so he’ll handle anything thrown at him. Rajiv Maragh is in
to ride for Chris Block.
Friday also kicks off Hollywood Park’s Turf Festival with the Grade 3 Miesque
Stakes for two-year-old fillies going a mile on the turf and the Grade 1
Matriarch Stakes for fillies and mares going a mile on the turf. The Miesque
attracted two starters from the East Coast and it looks like they will be the
ones to beat. ASSATEAGUE comes off a sharp maiden score on a yielding course at
Keeneland for Michael Matz. Her dam is a stakes winner and she has produced the
stakes winner on the turf Kindergarden Kid.
MORE THAN LOVE finished just behind Assateague in her career debut then came
right back to win at Belmont in good time. Her dam was a restricted stakes
winner of $211K and the red-hot Ramon Dominguez picks up the mount for John
Terranova. I would give the edge to Assateague since it looks like she has more
pace than the others.
The Matriarch Stakes attracted a field of nine and it looks like the shippers
will have a big edge. NEVER RETREAT has had a great year with two Grade 2 wins
and a Grade 1 last out at Keeneland when she beat Together, who came back to win
the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup next out. Never Retreat has raced
all over North America and always seems to bring her “A” game. Julien Leparoux
will have to work out a trip from post 8.
Graham Motion has a pair of contenders entered in here. UNBRIDLED HUMOR drew
the rail, is very fast and gets Ramon Dominguez to dole out her speed. SUMMER
SOIREE shipped to Del Mar and won the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks going nine furlongs
in very fast time two starts back and will also be forwardly placed with Gabe
Saez in the irons.
Aqueduct will get most of the attention on Saturday with four graded stakes.
First up is the Grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes for juvenile fillies going nine
furlongs on the main track. I don’t know why but this year’s field looks very
weak so you are unlikely to find a horse that makes logical sense. Instead,
consider equally the shippers, state-breds, etc. that you might normally ignore
in a Grade 2 stakes. There has only been four races run on the Aqueduct main
track this meet, but speed has done extremely well as well as inside posts.
The Grade 2 Remsen Stakes attracted To Honor and Serve last year as well as
Mucho Macho Man. This year’s field has two major contenders that romped on wet
tracks and are question marks on a dry track. EL PADRINO broke his maiden second
time out by almost 13 lengths on a sloppy track at Belmont going a mile for Todd
Pletcher. He draws the rail with Johnny Velazquez.
SOUPER SPEEDY broke his maiden first time out on a muddy track going seven
furlongs. The half-brother to Grade 1 Brilliant Speed is by a sire that does
extremely well with wet-track runners so it was no shock that he handled it.
Now, he goes from seven to nine furlongs and will race over a dry track for the
first time. Unlike last year when To Honor and Serve went off at 3-5 odds, this
year’s renewal should represent solid pari-mutuel value.
The Grade 1 Cigar Mile is up next and the aforementioned TO HONOR AND SERVE
might be the one to beat. He was brilliant winning the Grade 2 Pennsylvania
Derby going nine furlongs and didn’t run bad in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He
loves the main track here with two stakes wins last year over it and will be the
one to beat. HAYNESFIELD just missed in this race last year and could be
dangerous again with his tactical speed. If the race falls apart, HYMN BOOK
could be along in time to pick up the pieces.
The Grade 1 Gazelle Stakes is the last stakes race on Saturday at Aqueduct
and it is for three-year-old fillies going nine furlongs on the main track. It
has attracted a well-balanced field of 10 and the one thing that sticks out
about this field is how many of these fillies like to run up near the lead.
AWESOME FEATHER puts her seven-race winning career on the line but it won’t be
easy for her.
Churchill Downs hosts its Stars of Tomorrow II race program on Saturday and
for someone like me that loves to handicap first time starters, it’s like
Christmas in November. All 12 races are for two-year-olds and seven of them are
for maidens where I will focus most of my wagering activity.
The stakes highlights will be the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes going 1
1/16 miles on the main track and the Grade 2 Golden Rod Stakes for fillies going
the same distance.
The Golden Rod should be led by ON FIRE BABY who won the Grade 2 Pocahontas
Stakes at Churchill in her last start going a mile. Canadian shipper SPIRITED
MISS and CUSTOMER BASE should provide the competition.
The Kentucky Jockey Club can be a barometer on the Kentucky Derby next year
as a two-turn race over the track is something that is sought out by many
trainers. This year’s field of 11 is highlighted by EVER SO LUCKY, who romped in
his career debut for Jonathan Sheppard. A $600K yearling purchase by George
Strawbridge’ Augustin Stable, he will make it very interesting for Sheppard next
year with win here.
Sheppard loves to give his runners time and the Triple Crown grind forces
trainers to do things they normally would not want to do. For instance, Ever So
Lucky broke his maiden two weeks ago going short and now he shows up here
stretching out in distance; something that Sheppard would normally avoid doing.
Even though he’s by Indian Charlie, he should get more than enough stamina from
his dam’s pedigree since she is sired by classic winner Summer Squall, a
half-brother to Breeders’ Cup Classic and Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy and a
very underrated source of stamina.
Back out at Hollywood Park on Saturday, the Grade 2 Citation Handicap will be
run for older horses going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. JERANIMO was a sharp winner
of the Grade 2 Oak Tree Mile two starts back in very fast time then pressed the
pace in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He draws inside here and gets Garrett Gomez.
JOHN JOHNY JAK chased him last time they met and will probably do so again.
On Sunday at Hollywood Park, the Grade 3 Generous Stakes will be run for
two-year-olds going a mile on the turf. A wide open of nine is entered and very
few have any real turf form. BATTLE FORCE showed a big late kick when he rallied
from far back to break his maiden second time out and now tries stakes company
for John Shirreffs.
The Grade 1 Hollywood Derby will be run later on Sunday for three-year-olds
going 10 furlongs on the turf. A dozen turfers are entered and they are coming
from all over the world. The best of the shippers might be SLUMBER, who comes in
from Great Britain for the powerful Juddmonte Farms operation. He was a terrific
third in the Group 2 Chester Vase earlier this year behind Treasure Beach, who
shipped here to win the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington Park and
Nathaniel, who came back to win the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth.
Slumber won going 10 furlongs in his last start and gets Gomez for his American
debut. The turf course at Chester is very similar to our turf courses so he
should have no trouble handling Hollywood’s.
WESTERN ARISTOCRAT came to America last out and went gate to wire to win the
Grade 1 Jamaica when he was allowed to set a ridiculously slow pace (-30, -26
BRIS Pace variants). He had good form in Great Britain before shipping and we’ll
see if he’s good enough to repeat his last race.