COMMENTARY
NOVEMBER 4, 2005
By Steve Moody
Keeneland shippers a key to Churchill Downs meet
The Breeders’ Cup brought to an end the Keeneland Fall Meet and Churchill Downs
opened the following day. One of the keys to the November meet every year is figuring out how to interpret the
past performances of Keeneland shippers, who ran over an extremely slow but still very
biased racetrack in Lexington, Kentucky.
The Breeders’ Cup itself may have provided some clues about horses shipping
out of Keeneland. In the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1), PLEASANT HOME (Seeking the
Gold) circled the field to win going away. The Phipps Stable homebred, trained
by Shug McGaughey, generated an unheard of $63.50 payout for her connections, maybe an all-time
record for the black and cherry silks at Belmont Park. Pleasant Home prepped in the Spinster S. (G1) at Keeneland, historically the
most productive race for Distaff winners.
She rallied from far back in the Spinster, traveling five wide turning for
home and getting up late for second. This year’s Spinster went in 1:53 4/5, the slowest
running in the 50-year history of the race. Despite the ridiculously slow time and
seemingly subpar BRIS figures earned by the top finishers, Pleasant Home’s effort
over the speed-biased track obviously did her some good.
As the Churchill Downs meet continues, more and more runners from Keeneland
will come under scrutiny. Horses who recorded big numbers at Keeneland can often be discounted
under the Twin Spires if they ran with the prevailing bias. You can also draw a line through races of
many of those who raced poorly against a bias. Making up ground on the Keeneland main track was very difficult,
especially through the stretch.
Those who had some success deserve extra consideration, but the many who didn’t probably deserve another look.
GETCOZYWITHKAYLEE (Zafarrancho [Arg]) could only beat half the field in her
lone Keeneland start, but did get away slowly. She followed up with a solid work
at Churchill Downs a week later. Entered back against similar “non-winners of
two other than” allowance company on opening day, she reported home in front,
holding off odds-on favorite Atlas Valley (Capote) and paying $28.20 to her
backers.
Sunday’s feature was the Ack Ack H. (G3) with Vicarage (Vicar), the public
choice, coming off a huge win at Keeneland last out in the Perryville S. (G3).
However, he led virtually every step that day in Lexington and won in a romp.
STRAIGHT LINE (Boundary) was a well-beaten second in the Perryville, rallying
from just off the pace to finish 10 lengths back. He followed up with a bullet work and returned to
Churchill Downs, where he won the 2004 Iroquois S. (G3) in his only start at the
Louisville track, and was able to turn the tables on Vicarage in the Ack Ack, paying $20.60
in the process. Level Playingfield (Level Sands), who was last at the head of
the lane before running fourth in Keeneland’s Phoenix Breeders’ Cup S. (G3), did
manage to beat half the field in the Ack Ack. He was a strong
contender for the top spot and got up for third to complete a $263.60 trifecta.
The moral of the story is simple. When handicapping Churchill, allowances can
be made for Keeneland shippers who raced against the
prevailing bias and runners exiting big-figure races can be discounted if aided
by a bias. There’s likely to be plenty of good prices to be had
using the formula.