HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
NOVEMBER 26, 2005
by Dick Powell
If you live in the cold weather, you know the 2005 horse racing season is
about to end. Here outside of Saratoga Springs, New York, on Thanksgiving Day,
we had five inches of snow and subzero wind chill temperatures.
But Saturday at Aqueduct and Churchill Downs represents one final glimpse of
high-quality racing, and we will savor it. Both tracks have major juvenile races
for both sexes going two turns and Aqueduct has the Cigar Mile (G1), which has
become the late season version of the Metropolitan H. (G1).
At Churchill Downs, the closing day card has the Golden Rod S. (G2) for
juvenile fillies going 1 1/16 miles on the main track and the Kentucky Jockey
Club S. (G2) at the same distance two races later. FRENCH PARK (Ecton Park), a
monster winner in her career debut at Keeneland, won the Pocahontas S. (G3) in
her second start going a mile at Churchill as the 2-1 favorite. She draws
inside, gets the red-hot Mark Guidry in the irons and owns a strong two-turn
dirt pedigree.
TIZTIMETOKINECT (Tiznow) broke her maiden by over 19 lengths last out in a
long sprint at Keeneland in her second start for Mark Hubley. She’s trained well
since then and her sire is off to a great start with juveniles that have been
able to prosper going longer. BEAU DARE (Military) won the Kentucky Cup Juvenile
Filly S. two starts back at Turfway Park and was cooked by fast fractions last
out. She draws the rail and gets Churchill’s leading rider, Rafael Bejarano, who
will ride her for the first time. She’ll be tough to catch but might have some
company on the lead.
SABATANI (Five Star Day) broke her maiden by five lengths by coming from far
off the pace in a one-mile maiden race here in very good time for Patrick
Biancone. She’s trained well since then and gets first-time Lasix. If she hadn’t
already won first out going a mile, I might question her pedigree, but Biancone
is always great at getting his juveniles to mature early.
The always dangerous Todd Pletcher sends out MAGNIFICENT SONG (Unbridled’s
Song) off a sharp maiden win at Belmont going a mile. She draws inside and has
enough tactical speed to stalk the pace while saving ground. Her dam is a
half-sister to three stakes winners going long and she should improve in her
two-turn debut.
I was impressed by Sabatini’s debut win going a mile and she’ll be tough to
handle if she shows any of the usual improvement second time out. Biancone’s
juveniles are always at their best in their first couple of starts. Her outside
post shouldn’t matter if Gary Stevens takes her back, and there’s more than
enough speed to stretch the field out and avoid a traffic jam on the first turn.
French Park will be the filly to beat and a worthy favorite. We’ll try a
trifecta wheel with Sabatini on top and Beau Dare, Magnificent Song, French Park
and Tiztimetokinect underneath in the next two spots.
In the Kentucky Jockey Club, a field of eight juvenile males will go postward.
PRIVATE VOW (Broken Vow) is one of two graded stakes winners in the field and
has dangerous early speed. Throw out his last effort in the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile (G1) when his rein broke and Johnny Velazquez could not control him.
His prior efforts going seven furlongs were excellent and he’s trained
brilliantly for Steve Asmussen at Churchill. Shaun Bridgmohan picks up the
mount.
CATCMOINATCHA (Tale of the Cat) eked out a neck win over HIGH COTTON (Dixie
Union) last out in the Iroquois S. (G3), going a mile in good time. He’s been
racing from off the pace lately after breaking his maiden by 15 lengths going
gate-to-wire, but loses Bejarano.
High Cotton just missed last out going a mile despite contesting very fast
fractions. He draws the rail, has a good race over the track and only has to
tote 116 pounds because of that narrow loss.
Bejarno picks up the mount on GREAT POINT (Point Given) for Nick Zito. Great
Point broke his maiden by nearly nine lengths in his career debut going short
then failed miserably in the Nashua S. (G3) going a one-turn mile at Belmont
last out. Being by a Belmont winner and trained by Zito, he has every right to
get better with the races going two turns and he draws the inside.
HYTE REGENCY (Diligence) went on a roll when tried on turf in his second
start and he promptly won twice. He tired in his last start at Keeneland, but
he’s bred very strong for the dirt and the three route turf races should have
him ready for an improved effort here.
We’ll key High Cotton with a win bet and then protect with exactas, playing
Great Point and Catcominatcha over him.
At Aqueduct, most juveniles are being asked to go nine furlongs for the first
time. The Demoiselle attracted only five juvenile fillies, and Todd Pletcher
will send out LOVE LOCKET (Thunder Gulch), who is out of the Grade 1-winning
mare Love Lock (Silver Ghost). After showing nothing in her career debut going
six furlongs, she’s won here last three starts — all going two turns. Thunder
Gulch is a quality of source of stamina in today’s pedigree and his daughter has
shown an ability to run on the lead or sit off the pace. Garrett Gomez rides for
the first time.
WAIT A WHILE (Maria’s Mon) won the off-the-turf Miss Grillo S. last out by
six lengths going the distance and draws the rail with Jerry Bailey. Pletcher,
trainer of Love Locket and Wait a While, will also saddle CINDERELLA’S DREAM
(Prime Timber), a New York-bred with BRIS Speed figures that make her very
competitive with these.
Mark Hennig sends out another daughter of Thunder Gulch with BETTER NOW, won
won the Tempted S. (G3) going a mile last out. She has the best late kick of
this group but will need the race to set up for her. Rick Dutrow is looking for
another Sis City (Slew City Slew) with WONDER LADY ANNE L (Real Quiet), who
tries two turns for the first time when making her second start off a layoff.
Of the three Pletcher trainees, I like Wait a While the most. Winning an
off-the-turf stake is not always the toughest race, but her maiden win going a
mile on the turf was impressive. She finishes her races well, and the rail and
Bailey should enable her to get a good trip. Play her to win.
The last major juvenile race at Aqueduct is the Remsen, which is being run
for the 92nd time. It attracted a field of eight and only one graded stakes
winner, BLUEGRASS CAT (Storm Cat), who won the Nashua S. (G3) last out in good
time. His dam, She’s a Winner (A.P. Indy), is a full sister to two graded stakes
winner going long so distance should be no problem. He draws the rail and
Pletcher will give a leg up to Johnny V. A win here and Bluegrass Cat is one of
the choices in next year’s Kentucky Derby (G1) future wagering.
PEGASUSBYSTORM (Fusaichi Pegasus) won a two-turn stake at the Meadowlands
last out in good time. Michael Matz is a very patient trainer and you would be
correct to assume that this colt could still be improving. PARKHIMONBROADWAY (Ecton
Park) is a New York-bred who tries two turns for the first time and certainly
has the pedigree for it. Michael Hushion has been red-hot all year. FAGAN’S
LEGACY (Monarchos) is a stoutly-bred colt that won his last two stakes going
long and could be a stretch factor with Joe Bravo aboard.
Bluegrass Cat looks like a legitimate major horse and will be hard to beat in
here. We’ll play him in a straight exacta over Pegasusbystorm.
Without a major horse, the Cigar Mile drew a contentious field of 11.
Sprinters stretching out, route horses dropping back, turf horses switching to
dirt and three-year-olds trying older horses. Good luck. They might as well run
this race at Churchill Downs because that’s where it belongs.
BADGE OF SILVER (Silver Deputy) returns off a 161-day layoff for Bobby
Frankel. At first glance, he appears to be the most talented horse in the field
but the layoff at the age of five concerns me. However, Frankel wins an
extraordinary 31 percent off long layoffs, he’s working brilliantly and Bailey
stays with him.
PURGE (Pulpit) returns to New York after having a meltdown at Saratoga in the
detention barn. Aqueduct’s detention barn only requires a five-hour stay and
oppressive heat will not be a factor. Still, it’s cause for concern. When he’s
on his game, Purge is as good as anyone but not even Pletcher has been able to
get any consistency out of him. Maybe a one-turn mile will be right up his
alley.
MASS MEDIA (Touch Gold) won the Forego S. (G1) two starts back going seven
furlongs at Saratoga and had a fast win over the track last year in the Sport
Page H. (G3). A mile should be perfect for him and the cagey Frankel has gone
out and secured Alex Solis to ride him.
SCRAPPY T (Fit to Fight) has been most known as the horse who almost knocked
down Afleet Alex (Northern Afleet) in the Preakness (G1), but he’s been running
very strong lately. He exits a runner-up effort in the Discovery H. (G3) in
which he carved out very fast fractions into a strong headwind on Breeders’ Cup
Day, and he looks very dangerous here. IMPERIALISM (Langfuhr) was a sharp winner
at Del Mar going seven furlongs in fast time before a failed attempt at 10
furlongs. He made up some ground with a wide rally in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint
(G1) and has continued to train well for Kristin Mulhall.
When a race is as tough as the Cigar Mile, it pays to avoid the ones that
figure to get bet and look for prices. I’m going to bet Scrappy T win and place
and then key him in a trifecta wheel over Imperialism, Badge of Silver, Purge
and Mass Media.