PEDIGREE HANDICAPPING
DECEMBER 29, 2005
by Tim Holland
With the New Year nearly upon us, this is a good time for handicappers to do
some self-analyzing and tone up their skills. A vital part of being a successful
horseplayer is playing to one’s strengths and using all the tools available. My
strength has always been using pedigrees, trainer angles and track bias
information, and, with that in mind, I used the BRIS Ultimate Past Performances,
Sire Stats book and the American Produce Records (APR) CD to take a closer look
at some upcoming maiden and turf events.
Thursday, Turfway, 10TH
The Greg Foley-trained FRONTIER EXPRESS (8-1), who is by Carson City and out
of a Silver Deputy half-sister to two stakes-winning sprinters, is bred for
speed. Carson City’s produce have an Average Winning Distance (AWD) of 6.4f and
his Standard Production Index (SPI) is an above average 2.26. In his debut at
Churchill, the juvenile colt showed speed toward the unfavorable rail before
fading badly. However, with speed faring quite well in sprints over the
Polytrack this meet and Foley winning at 22 percent clip second-time out,
Frontier Express may go wire to wire here.
If the track turns out to be more tiring than expected, the one to beat will
be REGAL MINISTER (5-2), who closed well to be third here in a maiden at the
beginning of the month. Regal Minister has some stamina in his pedigree, being
by Service Stripe out of a Graustark (AWD 7.7f) mare who is a full-sister to the
Spinster S. (G1) winner Tempest Queen.
Friday, Tampa Bay, 1ST
Trainer Joe Woodard’s horses seem to have regained their form and he sends
out JEFF’S CREEK (5-1), who is by Catienus (SPI 1.56), in this spot. Out of
Teach (Pine Bluff), who sports a record of 11-4-2-0 with earnings of $133,484,
Jeff’s Creek has run decent at the $15,000 maiden claiming level and drops to
half that price on Friday. The two-year-old has the credentials to dominate this
weak group.
HARBOR PATROL (8-1), a first-time starter, is the only runner in the race
whose sire (Stormy Atlantic at 1.63) owns a higher SPI than Catienus. He’s got
some other decent stats in his favor, such as trainer Earl Begley’s 17 percent
win rate with first-time starters, and is one to keep an eye on for tote board
action.
Friday, Tampa Bay, 5TH
AIZARUNNER (6-1) ships in from Northern California where he owned a solid
turf record of 5-3-1-0. By the decent turf sire Exploit (“B” rating in the Sire
Stats book), Aizarunner is out of a Majestic Light mare who won three times on
the grass. Deeper investigation with the APR reveals that his granddam is by
Epsom Derby winner and turf influence Blakeney. Although unraced since the
beginning of November, Aizarunner sports good local works and his high BRIS Late
Pace figures make him tough to beat here.
Friday, Tampa Bay, 7TH
A half-brother to three stakes winners, STONE HAND (10-1) was well bet in his
debut at Churchill but lost almost all chance when badly bumped at the start. By
Two Punch (AWD 6.3f) and trained by Joan Scott, who wins 26 percent second-time
out, Stone Punch shows three nice works over the track in preparation and looks
worth a wager.
Friday, Tampa Bay, 10TH
SAGE’S FIFTY SIX (12-1) will be making just her second start on the grass in
this one-mile event. However, her sire, Victory Gallop, is rated a “B” for the
turf in the Sire Stat book and the APR shows that his dam, Queen of Bronze, who
is by noted turf sire Roberto, went 9-2-4-3 and earned more than $75,000 on the
grass. She’s also produced turf stakes winner Danzig Queen. Shipping in from
Finger Lakes, Sage’s Fifty Six should not draw too much attention at the windows
and may outrun her odds.