COMMENTARY
FEBRUARY 1, 2013
Points make the grade, too
by Ed DeRosa
Over on the Twitters,
Chris Rossi of @O_Crunk fame is fond of chiding me for sticking up for a
Kentucky Derby qualifying system that now uses
points rather than graded stakes earnings to determine the field if more than 20
horses enter.
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Indeed, back in March 2010
I wrote a paean to the graded stakes earnings system that dared anyone to
think that a points system could be superior.
One of the things gambling has taught me is that there’s no perfect system.
The
martingale eventually collapses under the weight of table limits, and
“angles” in horse racing (e.g. best last-out figure) eventually lose their edge
in a pari-mutuel format.
And so it goes with Derby qualifying rules, too. The new system isn’t perfect
but nor was the old system. Lost in all the consternation of the Breeders’ Cup
Juvenile winner no longer being guaranteed a spot in the Derby starting gate is
that the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Fillies
Turf winners aren’t either.
That Shanghai Bobby isn’t yet guaranteed a spot in the Derby is a big reason why
we saw him in the Holy Bull Stakes this past weekend. Do you think Uncle Mo
would have run in the Timely Writer Stakes if the points system was in place in
2010-2011?
Another Breeders’ Cup Juvenile comparison people make is to lament that the race
is “worth the same as the Delta Jackpot” or “the four-horse Bob Lewis.” What
they don’t acknowledge is that it’s also no longer the most important race, as
it was when it was worth $2 million. I am not arguing for or against the BC Juvenile being worth 10 points to the
winner, but I absolutely do think it’s a positive that it and all other
Breeders’ Cup races are no longer automatic qualifiers and that it’s no longer
the most valuable race for qualifying purposes.
Also lost in the conversation is that spots one through 19 really don’t matter.
Oh, sure, those higher in the standings might attract more money from casual
fans who recognize the names, but in terms of the purpose of the system, a
billion points in first is the same as 10 points in 19th.
And 20th only matters if there’s a horse in 21st. It’s not a given that more
than 20 will enter. The wailing and gnashing of teeth four months out about
which horses might be left out doesn’t seem to reflect the real possibility that
no horse will be left out.
Admittedly when this all began I had my doubts whether the
new points system would achieve its stated goal of being more accessible to fans
and help build drama on the
Road to the Derby, but I’m happy to report that
initial returns (albeit based mostly on anecdotal evidence) appear that I was
wrong, and that the system is in fact helping drum up more interest, not only in
the races but also for both the horses and competitions involved in the build up.
Be sure to check out
HelloRaceFans.org for updated information on the Road to the Kentucky Derby
(and Oaks!), including schedules, standings, etc. And sign up for its
Derby Prep Alert
e-mail for info on the big races including free Brisnet.com
Ultimate Past Performances (PPs) for each race!