DEROSA’S BLOG
DECEMBER 12, 2013
TwinSpires.com players outperform public in promotional
races
by Ed DeRosa
Four successful $5 win bets from the 11 stakes races at
Calder and Gulfstream was all that stood between TwinSpires.com players and
1-million TSC Elite Points on Saturday, and 128 players cashed
on the promotion from the 314 who played at least four races.
That winning percentage of 40.76 percent is 53.17 percent
more than the expected 26.61 percent winners of four or more races based on the
off odds of the 11 qualifying races. I.e., on average for every two players
throughout the country that cashed at least four win bets on these 11 races,
there were three on TwinSpires.com who did so.
It must be those free
Brisnet.com Ultimate Past Performances and Insider Picks & Power Plays
giving TwinSpires.com players an edge!
Anyway, the winners of the 11 races with odds and
percentage of win pool to reflect probability of winning are as follows:
| Winner | Odds | % of Win Pool | ||
| Caroline Lizard | 34.9-1 | 2.28 | ||
| Centrique | 9-10 | 43.16 | ||
| Ribo Bibo | 1-2 | 54.67 | ||
| Speaking of Which | 23-5 | 14.64 | ||
| Goodtimehadbyall | 29-5 | 12.81 | ||
| Casba | 11-10 | 39.05 | ||
| Deanaallen’skitten | 9-10 | 43.16 | ||
| Valiant Girl | 42.8-1 | 1.87 | ||
| Point Finish | 19-5 | 17.08 | ||
| Major Marvel | 17-10 | 30.37 | ||
| Nevada Kid | 29-5 | 12.81 |
If you had played all 11 races the odds of hitting all 11
were better than 473 million-1, and even at least seven was 345-1. Of the
84 players who did play all 11 races, no one had seven, but three people did
have six, which was more than double the expectation that 1.44 people could
select six winners from 11 races at those odds.
The odds of picking at least four winners from those 11
races was 2.76-1, meaning on average 22-23 players from 84 (26-27
percent) would be able to do it, but on TwinSpires, nearly double — 45 (53.5
percent) — made it happen!
A tough task when picking 11 races with these odds is
getting zero right, as that was about a 30-1 chance, which suggests two-to-three of
our 84 players should have gotten blanked, but it actually only happened to one
player (this admittedly is tougher to gauge because once you lost eight races
it’s impossible to get four right, so we can only assume that those who went oh-fer
(and even one-fer) 11 probably put all their picks in ahead of time, and those
playing race by race would have stopped at oh-fer eight, one-fer nine, or two-fer
ten.
Still, it’s clear that TwinSpires.com players out-performed
the public on this one. The good news is that they get to split 1-million TSC
Elite Points for their saavy; the bad news is there’s less points to go around!
Good thing they have the extra win pool winnings to ease their pain.
Bet Horseracing Free Online at TwinSpires.com