KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
FEBRUARY 4, 2015
by James Scully
The Road to the Kentucky Derby series was on hiatus last week, with no
points’ races being offered, but a number of Kentucky Derby prospects were still
in action.
San Vicente
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red (Afleet Alex) returned to races in
good order, recording a neck second in the seven-furlong San Vicente (G2) at
Santa Anita. It was a tough beat in the sense that he appeared on his way to the
winner’s circle, rallying boldly up the inside during the stretch drive, but his
supporters had to be pleased with the effort.
Last during the early stages, Texas Red netted a respectable 98 BRIS Speed
rating as well as a whopping 113 Late Pace number while cutting back to a
less-than-optimal distance. He gave five pounds to the winner, Lord Nelson
(Pulpit), an accomplished performer in one-turn races.
Texas Red received a perfect set-up for his next appearance, the 1 1/16-mile
Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds on February 21.
Lord Nelson raced up close from the start and gamely out-finished Texas Red
in the final strides, but he’s a tough read following the San Vicente win.
By Pulpit and out of a Seeking the Gold mare, Lord Nelson is bred to easily
handle longer distances. His trainer, three-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob
Baffert, believes the chestnut colt can stretch out effectively and Lord Nelson
is certainly a candidate for further improvement, registering a career-best 98
BRIS Speed figure last Sunday.
But Lord Nelson must prove that he isn’t one-dimensional given how poorly he
performed in a pair of route starts last season. A well-beaten fifth as the
favorite in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs is a particular
eye-sore and it’s difficult to get past his three-for-three mark in sprints,
including a 6 3/4-length romp in the six-furlong Speak Easy last fall.
Sam F. Davis
Ocean Knight (Curlin) left an excellent impression while making his stakes
and two-turn bow in Saturday’s Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, overcoming
a wide trip to prove best, and established himself as the probable favorite for
the March 7 Tampa Bay Derby (G2) back at the Oldsmar, Florida oval.
A 4 1/4-length debut winner going six furlongs over Aqueduct’s inner track on
December 13, Ocean Knight was bet down to 8-5 favoritism despite a lack of
experience. He raced up close from the start, stalking moderate opening splits
of :24 1/5, :48 3/5 and 1:12 4/5 before launching his rally off the far turn,
and was the only runner in the 12-horse field making any headway in the final
furlongs.
Runner-up Divining Rod (Tapit), who isn’t Triple Crown nominated, seized
control of the pace down the backstretch and dug in determinedly when
challenged. He could continue to have a nice future for trainer Arnaud Delacour,
but the final neck margin is deceiving — Ocean Knight was clearly going best
late.
Given the slow early tempo, the winner earned a respectable 95 BRIS Speed
rating as well as a 107 Late Pace number. Ocean Knight looks like an outstanding
prospect for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin.
96Rock
The Great War (War Front) opened the year with a runaway win at Turfway Park,
scoring by 7 1/4 lengths in the 6 1/2-furlong 96Rock S. on Saturday.
A speedy performer in England and Ireland last year for trainer Aidan
O’Brien, the well-bred bay colt ran well when stretching out for his U.S. and
dirt debut in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, checking in fourth. His Coolmore
connections left him stateside in the barn of new trainer Wesley Ward and the
Kentucky-bred has been training all winter over the Polytrack at Turfway.
The Great War earned a 97 BRIS Speed rating while winning under wraps, but
this race tells us little. Let’s see what he can do when stretching back out to
two turns next time.
Out of Pulpit mare, The Great War could find longer distances to his liking.
His dam is a half-sister to the dam of Departing, who like The Great War is a
son of War Front. A multiple Grade 2 winner, Departing has earned more than $1.5
million while competing almost exclusively in routes.
But this is also the immediate female family of the multiple Grade 1-winning
sprinter Zensational and some other speedballs.
Allowance winner
Prospect Park (Tapit) opened 2015 with an eye-catching victory over
allowance/optional claiming rivals at Santa Anita last Friday, scoring by an
easy 5 1/4-length margin after being forced to wait and alter course for clear
running in the stretch drive. He may not have beat much in the one-mile test,
but the Clifford Sise-trained colt looked awesome doing it and received a
career-best 95 BRIS Speed rating.
He could continue to make noise when stepping up to face stakes foes next
time.
Upcoming
A pair of scoring races will be held this weekend, the Robert B. Lewis (G2)
at Santa Anita and Withers (G3) at Aqueduct.
The Lewis will feature a highly-anticipated match-up between Dortmund (Big
Brown) and Firing Line (Line of David), the one-two finishers from the Los
Alamitos Futurity (G1).
El Kabeir (Scat Daddy), winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club and Jerome (G3) in
his last two outings, figures to be a prohibitive favorite in the Withers.