KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
FEBRUARY 25, 2015
by James Scully
The Fountain of Youth was one of three stakes races offering points toward a
Kentucky Derby berth over the weekend (February 21-22) and the Gulfstream Park
feature delivered plenty of controversy as Upstart (Flatter) wound up being
disqualified, enabling the Todd Pletcher-trained Itsaknockout (Lemon Drop Kid)
to remain unbeaten in his third career start.
The Risen Star (G2) shared the Saturday spotlight with the Fountain of Youth
and Lecomte (G3) winner International Star (Fusaichi Pegasus) captured his
second straight graded stakes at Fair Grounds, driving to a one-length decision
over Lecomte runner-up War Story (Northern Afleet).
The Southwest (G3), which was run six days later than originally scheduled
after freezing conditions canceled the Presidents Day program at Oaklawn Park,
featured an encore performance from Far Right (Notional), who carried his
winning form from the January 19 Smarty Jones forward while rallying boldly over
the sloppy track.
I’ll also mention Khozan (Distorted Humor), Royal Delta’s half-brother who
remained unbeaten with a 12 3/4-length allowance win at Gulfstream on Sunday.
The Pletcher trainee made his career debut on January 24 and will get one
opportunity to qualify for the Kentucky Derby when making his stakes and
two-turn debut in the March 28 Florida Derby (G1).
Fountain of Youth
The lone two-turn dirt race at Gulfstream Saturday, the 1 1/16-mile Fountain
of Youth was contested over a drying-out track that played slowly, resulting in
an unflattering final time (1:46.28) that included a tedious last
three-sixteenths of a mile (34.58).
The bubble burst for Frosted (Tapit), who looked like a winner approaching
the conclusion of the far turn before faltering mightily. Upstart came under a
drive before the midway point of the bend, as jockey Jose Ortiz realized that he
had to go after Frosted, and Itsaknockout, who had raced close to Upstart
through the early stages, also appeared in trouble as he lost ground rounding
the turn.
The whole complexion of the race changed entering the stretch.
Frosted went from looking invincible to spent, sticking his head up in the
air as he completely idled after turning for home, and Upstart quickly drew even
as Itsaknockout also came charging on the far outside to challenge for the lead.
And then the bumping started.
In the end, I thought Upstart was the best horse on this day and would’ve won
without any contact, which was initiated by the tiring Frosted drifting out into
him. That started a chain reaction that forced Upstart to bump into Itsaknockout.
Jockey Jose Ortiz did his mount no favors by continuing to whip Upstart
left-handed as they drove to the finish line and the first bumping incident
probably didn’t result in the disqualification; Upstart continued to drift out
slightly after bumping Itsaknockout the first time. But Upstart had also started
to regain control, was pulling away from Itsaknockout when he drifted out the
second time — the contact wasn’t extreme and I thought Upstart was clearly
going the better of the two late.
Give Itsaknockout credit for rallying to challenge with about a sixteenth of
a mile remaining, and any analysis of these incidents involves plenty of
conjecture, but I thought Luis Saez quit riding Itsaknockout in the latter
stages because he knew he couldn’t win. He did a good job of embellishing,
acting like he had to protect his mount after being sawed off and nearly
toppled, but that wasn’t the case and plenty of ground still remained before the
finish line.
The stewards were put in a no-win situation, faced with a decision that
would’ve been criticized either way. Chances are Itsaknockout will face
adversity again this spring, especially in a 20-horse Kentucky Derby field.
The lightly-raced colt gained valuable seasoning while making his stakes and
two-turn bow — he didn’t make his first start until early December — and is
bred to relish classic distances. Itsaknockout earned a commendable 102 BRIS
Speed rating when making his second outing at a one-turn mile on January 4, but
his other two Speed figs (86 for maiden win and 91 in the Fountain of Youth) are
a little on the slow side.
I would love to see Itsaknockout get away from the confines of Gulfstream
Park next time, don’t know how making every start over a single track benefits
any Derby prospect, but Pletcher mentioned the March 28 Florida Derby as a
logical target. He employed the same strategy in 2009 with the talented Dunkirk,
who finished 11th at 5-1 odds in the Kentucky Derby before a runner-up effort in
the Belmont Stakes.
Upstart did not run back to his spectacular performance in the January 24
Holy Bull (G2), registering a 105 BRIS Speed rating for his 5 1/2-length
decision that afternoon, but trainer Richard Violette openly guaranteed as much,
saying he had under-trained Upstart for the Fountain of Youth and was expecting
a regression from the dark bay ridgling.
It was unrealistic to expect Upstart to keep moving forward in every start —
five of the last six Kentucky Derby winners failed to earn a Speed rating as
high as 105 in their previous starts — and I loved how he dug in gamely and was
pulling away at the wire, finishing first by a widening 2 3/4-length margin. He
wound up posting a decent 95 BRIS Speed rating and figures to be much tighter
for his next appearance, likely the Wood Memorial (G1) on April 4.
Frammento (Midshipman) made up a lot of ground on the tiring leaders during
the final furlongs to be third, 4 1/2 lengths back of Upstart, but he still has
much to prove for two-time Kentucky Derby winner Nick Zito.
Risen Star
After breaking from the far outside post (10) in the 1 1/16-mile Risen Star,
International Star was guided to the rail before the conclusion of the clubhouse
turn and saved every inch of ground the rest of the way, closing through a tight
spot to reach the lead turning for home.
The bay colt dispatched pacesetter St. Joe Bay (Saint Andann) by the
quarter-pole, but War Story was revving up his rally in midstretch. That rival
nearly drew even with a little more than a sixteenth of a mile remaining, but
International Star had more in reserve and reasserted control, finishing full of
run under the wire to score by a comfortable one-length margin.
The Risen Star lost some luster in the preceding weeks when Sham (G3) winner
Calculator (In Summation) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) hero Texas Red (Afleet
Alex) were forced out due to injury, and the disappointing effort from 3-2
favorite Imperia (Medaglia d’Oro), who never got involved recording a one-paced
fifth in his second dirt start, leads to questions surrounding the overall
quality of the field.
The race turned out similar to the Lecomte, with International Star closing
fast along the inside to easily prove best as War Story finished a clear second,
but I’m willing to give International Star a lot more credit now than I did five
weeks ago.
The Mike Maker-trained colt is moving in the right direction from a BRIS
Speed rating perspective. Winner of the Grey (G3) on Polytrack last October and
a non-threatening fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), International Star
did not run fast last season but concluded 2014 with a string of increasing
figures (85-87-89).
Those numbers have continued to rise this year, with International Star
posting a 94 for the Lecomte and a 97 in the Risen Star. And given his
stamina-fused pedigree and improving form, those numbers are eligible to keep
moving forward as he stretches out in distance this spring.
I still want to see him prove it against better company, with a deeper cast
expected for the March 28 Louisiana Derby (G2), but it’s easy to appreciate the
moxie and finishing kick that International Star’s displayed in both starts at
Fair Grounds.
War Story has finished first or second in all four career starts, but it’s
fair to say International Star has his number at this point. The Tom Amoss-trained
gelding has been in position to challenge before losing ground in the final
sixteenth of a mile both times and I don’t know whether he can show more while
stretching out in distance next time.
Keen Ice (Curlin) made up ground belatedly to record a non-threatening third,
a slight improvement from a well-beaten fifth in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream.
Similar to Frammento, the well-bred colt rates more as a plodder at this stage
for Dale Romans, but the dedicated closer is not without hope moving forward.
Southwest
Far Right settled about 10 lengths off the pace during the opening half-mile
of the 1 1/16-mile Southwest and began to advance steadily while traveling wide
through the latter stages of the far turn. Jockey Mike Smith angled his mount
toward the inside entering the straightaway and Far Right accelerated along the
rail to reach even terms with the leaders passing the sixteenth pole, edging
away late to score by three-quarters of a length.
After benefiting from Mr. Z (Malibu Moon) taking a right-hand turn in the
stretch of the Smarty Jones, Far Right clearly proved superior to his foes over
the wet track. The hard-trying sophomore has improved this season for Ron
Moquett.
However, I can’t get excited about Far Right’s Kentucky Derby chances for two
reasons.
Firstly, any close-up pedigree analysis will discount his chances at 1 1/4
miles. Sire Notional is a speed influence who needs to be partnered with the
right mare to produce a classic type, and Far Right comes from the female family
of classy sprinters Big Jag and Reneesgotzip.
Secondly, any hope for him to outrun pedigree concerns has to be predicated
upon being fast. And with BRIS Speed ratings of 93 (Southwest) and 92 in his
last two starts, Far Right does not come close to meeting that threshold —
those numbers won’t cut it against deeper company this spring.
Kentucky Derby winners Big Brown (2008) and Smarty Jones (2004) didn’t
possess ideal pedigrees for 10 furlongs, but they recorded BRIS Speed ratings in
the 110-range beforehand, numbers that towered above the competition.
One example I always go back to is Lawyer Ron, a tremendous racehorse and
promising sire who died far too soon.
In 2006, Lawyer Ron dominated three consecutive Oaklawn preps — the
Southwest, Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby — but his BRIS Speed ratings for
those performances (99-98-101) were not elite in that year’s Kentucky Derby
field. He was proven at distances up to 1 1/8 miles, winning the Arkansas Derby
by 2 3/4 lengths at 1-2 odds, but Lawyer Ron was bred to be more of a
middle-distance type and did not thrive when stretching out in trip at Churchill
Downs, checking in a well-beaten 12th as the 10-1 sixth choice among 20 runners.
Supporters of Far Right, and other pedigree-challenged horses, will bring up
California Chrome as a counter-argument, citing that his immediate pedigree
wasn’t suited for 10 furlongs, but California Chrome earned a 101 Speed rating
in his last juvenile start as well as a 102 (San Felipe) and 106 (Santa Anita
Derby) in his final two prep races.
California Chrome had the top last-race BRIS Speed rating in the 2014 Derby
field.
If he remains healthy, Far Right remains eligible to make a lot of money for
his connections in races like the Ohio Derby, West Virginia Derby (G2) and Super
Derby (G2) this summer.
The Truth or Else (Yes It’s True) offered an eye-catching move into
contention on the far turn and edged Mr. Z by a nose for second while making his
2015 debut for Kenny McPeek in the Southwest. He’ll attempt to keep moving
forward next time.
Given his outrageous antics in the Smarty Jones, Mr. Z took a step in the
right direction by maintaining a straight path throughout the Southwest. The
speedy colt wanted the early advantage, taking a 1 1/2-length lead at the
half-mile point, and fought on gamely despite tiring in the lane. He lost second
on the bob — the colt always seems to come up short when a photo is involved.
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas remains high on Mr. Z’s potential this spring, but
it’s tough to like the fact that his Speed ratings have dropped precipitously
(92 in the Southwest) from the conclusion of his 2014 campaign (97 and 100 in
his last two juvenile starts).
One-turn allowance winner
It’s been more than 100 years since the last unraced two-year-old captured
the Kentucky Derby and Khozan will lack foundation if he makes it to the
starting gate, but talent remains a dangerous weapon and the $1 million purchase
looks like he could be any kind.
He easily captured his career debut at a tricky seven-furlong distance,
drawing off by 3 3/4 lengths, and continued to turn heads while making his first
start against winners at Gulfstream last Sunday, scoring by a 12 3/4-length
margin. The dark bay colt registered eye-catching BRIS Speed ratings of 103 and
101 for those performances.
Pletcher had the option to run Khozan against stakes rivals, the same tactics
he employed with Far From Over (Blame), who went straight from a debut maiden
win to capture the Withers (G3), but elected to keep Khozan at a one-turn mile
distance against five overmatched foes. Khozan was highly impressive but I don’t
know what a one-turn allowance accomplishes other than essentially being a paid
workout.
Khozan will be compared to other talented unraced juveniles like Bodemeister
and Curlin, who both managed to place in the Kentucky Derby, but those horses at
least had the advantage of multiple two-turn starts leading up to the Kentucky
Derby. We have to wait until the March 28 Florida Derby to see Khozan attempt a
route of ground.
Upcoming
The Road to the Kentucky Derby series is on a one-week hiatus, with no
scoring races scheduled this weekend, but the third pool of the Kentucky Derby
Future Wager will be offered Friday-Sunday.