KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
APRIL 23, 2015
by James Scully
I spent some time breaking down the
Pro & Cons of Kentucky Derby contenders in a TwinSpires.com blog post this
week and am looking forward to previewing the race after post positions are
drawn next Wednesday.
In this week’s Derby Report, I’ll take a look at the field based on potential
run style, using four categories. Horses are ranked in each by point totals from
qualifying races.
Early types
American Pharoah – He’s arguably the quickest member of the Derby field but
Bob Baffert/Victor Espinoza have suggested that American Pharoah can rate seven
or eight lengths behind a possible hot pace, taking plenty of kickback for the
first time in career before delivering his best. I’ll believe it when I see it
— speedster has been first or second at every point of call except when he
finishing fifth in debut.
Materiality — Won’t be surprised to see him drop farther back in the early
stages but improving colt remains eligible to show speed if he breaks forwardly,
registering 103 E1 and 115 E2 BRIS Early Pace ratings in front-running Florida
Derby score.
Firing Line — Gary Stevens knows how to nurse speed, winning the 1988 Derby
aboard the wire-to-wire Winning Colors, and Firing Line exits a track
record-setting performance where he wasn’t going to settle off the early
action. Could be a little headstrong as well following a six-week freshening and
expect him to be involved from the start.
Stanford — Set the pace in both starts since stretching out to a route and
only realistic chance to make an impact will be a forwardly-placed trip.
Ocho Ocho Ocho — Smallish colt possesses plenty of natural speed and
connections may not want to see him get caught up in any congestion from off the
pace.
Pressers/stalkers
Dortmund — Big horse rallied from sixth in the early stages to capture debut
and is expected to revert to rating tactics after displaying high speed in all
three preps this year. Doesn’t figure to be too far back, possibly the first
flight behind the early leaders.
Carpe Diem — Could find himself in midpack but possesses enough speed that
jockey John Velazquez will probably look to tuck in right behind the
front-runners.
Upstart — He likes to settle just off the early action and will be
interesting to see where he settles during the opening stages — probably
unrealistic to expect him too far back given his many century-topping BRIS Early
Pace numbers.
Mr. Z — Trainer D. Wayne Lukas would probably love to try and strike from
just off the pace, but speedy colt could wreck those plans if too gung-ho from
the starting gate.
Bolo — His wins have come on or very close to the lead and possesses enough
tactical speed to be in the top half of the field during the early stages.
Midpack/late runners
Frosted — Like how he displayed a new dimension last time, retreating to
last between calls on the clubhouse turn of the TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial,
and figures to take back before offering his best.
Mubtaahij — Mike De Kock said his charge can’t match the speed of the top
contenders and expects Mubtaahij to be doing his best running late. But he’s
fast enough to be ahead of a handful of dedicated closers early.
El Kabeir — Led wire to wire in Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Downs last
fall but has changed his run style in recent starts, dropping well of the pace
in the Wood and Gotham. Calvin Borel has captured multiple Derbys going
last-to-first and won’t be surprised to see El Kabeir retreat toward the caboose
despite his decent tactical speed.
Itsaknockout — Could get shuffled back in the opening furlongs despite
showing an affinity for racing within striking range early.
Danzig Moon — Rallied from off the pace to be a clear second in the Blue
Grass and will be looking to do the same on Derby Day.
Tencendur — Earned a Derby berth with a much-improved second last time and
New York-bred will be looking to grind his way forward with an outside trip.
Madefromlucky — Tailed off in Arkansas Derby and isn’t quick enough to be
close early in this spot.
Deep closers
International Star — Accomplished colt (three for three in stakes this year)
will be in no rush from the starting gate, looking to make one run.
Far Right — Devoid of early speed and a proven commodity in preps when
rallying from the clouds.
War Story — He was nearly 10 lengths back before finishing second in Risen
Star two back and trainer Tom Amoss is probably hoping to emulate the trips of
Commanding Curve and Golden Soul, late-running seconds the past two years.
Keen Ice — He figures to be at least 20 lengths out of it early if he makes
the field (21st in points presently).
Frammento — Another with absolutely no early foot who will attempt to do his
best running in the latter stages if able to start (22nd in points).
Bold Conquest — His participation looks iffy (23rd in points) but no
doubting the late runner’s tactics if he makes it.