December 25, 2024

Kentucky Derby Trends

Last updated: 2/25/05 12:35 PM


KENTUCKY DERBY TRENDS

FEBRUARY 25, 2005

by James Scully

Three Kentucky Derby (G1) trends have been prevalent over the last 50 years, but there are no absolutes.
A three-year-old could win the Run for the Roses off only two prep races at three. An unraced two-year-old could come along and win the Derby. A horse could
theoretically be trained up to a Derby victory off a layoff.

But three trends remain undisputable. They’ve been as relevant in the 21st
century as they were when Kennedy was president. Of course, horses aren’t the
same today as they once were. Even in the 1960s and 70s, they raced much more
often. Since Thoroughbreds aren’t as durable anymore, we’ll frame our discussion
to recent history.

No horse has captured the Kentucky Derby without an April prep race in the
last 20+ years. Only a small number have entered the world’s most grueling dirt
race off a lengthy freshening because their connections realized the importance
of a recent start, but we witnessed two examples in
2004 when trainers John Kimmel and Richard Violette Jr. both decided to take
the road less traveled following the March 13 Florida Derby (G1). Kimmel and Violette are
both good horsemen, but they decided to ignore volumes of
Kentucky Derby history, each claiming that their decision-making was in the best
interest of their horse. The results were disastrous.

Read the Footnotes was one of the most promising Kentucky Derby contenders
early last spring, capturing the Fountain of Youth S. (G2) in impressive
fashion, and didn’t run poorly when fourth in the Florida
Derby for Violette. In the Kentucky Derby itself, the talented colt offered a
good rally to reach contention on the far turn before flattening out in upper
stretch. He was a short horse at Churchill Downs and we can only speculate on whether
he would have sustained his run with the proper foundation under him.
Regardless, Read the Footnotes settled for seventh and the Kentucky Derby took
an extreme toll on him physically. He never raced again.

Friends Lake surprised when capturing the Florida Derby at 37-1 and stamped
himself a promising Kentucky Derby contender based on his pedigree (by A.P. Indy
and out of multiple Grade 1 winner Antespend). However, Kimmel kept the horse on
the sidelines over the next seven weeks and Friends Lake struggled home
to a 15th-place finish in Louisville. Like Read the Footnotes, Friends Lake
did not go forward after the Kentucky Derby. He started only once more,
finishing seventh in the Peter Pan S. (G2), and was retired.

Morning workouts can’t simulate experiences gained through racing in the
afternoon. Past greats like Charlie Whittingham and modern day
conditioners like Michael Dickinson have been able to train older, more seasoned
Thoroughbreds up to optimal performances off lengthy layoffs, but young, lightly
raced three-year-olds have proven incapable of handling the demands of 10
furlongs under 126 pounds following an extended rest in modern times.

A fresh horse is undesirable on Derby Day.

The second major trend discriminates against unraced two-year-olds. This is a
well-known statistic since we have to go back to 1882 to find the last horse to
win the Kentucky Derby without a juvenile start. Sixteen horses in the last 20
runnings of the Derby didn’t race at two. Rock Hard Ten (Kris S.) fit that
criteria and would have taken a lot of win money last year had he not been
excluded from the field due to insufficient graded earnings.

Few strong contenders have lacked a two-year-old start in the last 20 years.
Strodes Creek was the fourth choice in the wagering and finished second in the
1994 Derby. Pulpit finished fourth as the fourth favorite in 1997. Corporate
Report was the fifth choice at 8-1 in 1991 and came in ninth.

The third Kentucky Derby trend, which is being completely ignored by a number of
conditioners this year, has claimed many significant victims over the last
couple of decades and stipulates that no horse wins the Kentucky Derby with
fewer than three starts at three before the race. There are some prime examples.

Point Given is one of the most dominant three-year-olds of the last 20 years.
He won seven of his last eight starts, taking the Belmont S. (G1) by a whopping
12 1/4 lengths with commanding victories in the Travers S. (G1), Preakness S.
(G1), Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Hollywood Futurity (G1) among his
accomplishments. Voted Horse of the Year in 2001, Point Given didn’t make his first
three-year-old appearance until the March 17 San Felipe (G2), which he won by 2
1/4 lengths, and then romped home much the best in the Santa Anita Derby. He
trained sensationally for the Kentucky Derby off only two starts at three, but
he wasn’t at his best when it counted the most. Point Given came up flat on
Derby Day, finishing fifth.

What would’ve happened had Point Given come back to the
races by late February and received at least three preps like every other Kentucky Derby
winner in the last 20 years? He could have won the Triple Crown.

Only one three-year-old start before the Kentucky Derby should be extremely
discouraging, but Arazi tried it in 1992 and the public bet him down to 4-5. He finished eighth.
Last year’s runner-up, Lion Heart, entered the Derby off only two preps. The
year before, Peace Rules turned for home with the lead but couldn’t sustain it
down the stretch and finished third off only two races at three. Best Pal
entered the 1991 Derby under the same scenario and finished second. Victory
Gallop, who went on to capture the Belmont, raced in only the Rebel (G3) and
Arkansas Derby (G2) before just missing in the biggest race of his life when
second in 1998.

Would one more prep race beforehand made a difference for any of the
aforementioned horses? Nobody can say for sure, but the fact remains that racing
experience at three has been linked to success in the Derby since 1983. That
begs the question — will any trainers attempt to bring their runners up to this
year’s Derby off only a couple of starts in the last 4+ months?

Well, it appears that many top contenders will tread the unproven path in 2005.
Two-year-old champion DECLAN’S MOON (Malibu Moon), AFLEET ALEX (Northern Afleet),
ROCKPORT HARBOR (Unbridled’s Song) and WILKO (Awesome Again) are among the three-year-olds
being pointed to this year’s Kentucky Derby off only two prep races. They all
have a built-in excuse.

Regardless of history, many people still want to treat the Kentucky Derby
like any other race. But young horses face completely different circumstances at
Churchill Downs. How they handle the surface is a major factor because the track
can be hard, with little bottom to it, and horses often have to bounce off it. The run
into the first turn is anything but clean. Many jockeys have compared the trip
to bumper cars with traffic problems being a concern
throughout. And then there is the weight.

For the first time in their careers, Kentucky Derby participants
get loaded down with an extreme weight assignment of 126 pounds. They’re typically picking up
at least four pounds off their last prep race while stretching out in distance.

And we can’t forget the distance issue, either. Ten furlongs. Most horses aren’t suited for the distance at this early stage
in their career. Holy Bull (Travers [G1]) and Came Home (Pacific Classic [G1])
are a couple of recent examples of horses who went on to claim major events at 1
1/4 miles 3 1/2 months down the road, but they were up the track going 10 furlongs on
the first Saturday in May.

The Kentucky Derby is different from any other race. A little luck is necessary,
but a horse must also be able to overcome adversity. Recent history shows us an
April prep race, juvenile experience and at least three starts at three before the Kentucky Derby
are all key ingredients to getting it done.