KENTUCKY DERBY REPORT
MARCH 19, 2009
by James Scully
Four key preps were held on Saturday, and FRIESAN FIRE (A.P. Indy) made the
biggest splash, romping by 7 1/4 lengths over the sloppy track at Fair Grounds
in the Louisiana Derby (G2). PIONEEROF THE NILE (Empire Maker) wasn’t as
dominant, but he keeps winning out west for Bob Baffert, registering his third
straight victory with a 1 1/4-length decision in the San Felipe (G2). Hot
Springs, Arkansas, turned into upset city as 56-1 WIN WILLY (Monarchos) ran past
OLD FASHIONED (Unbridled’s Song) in the stretch of the Rebel S. (G2), and MUSKET
MAN (Yonaguska) garnered his first graded stakes win with a narrow score in the
Tampa Bay Derby (G3)
Louisiana Derby — After breaking from the far outside and traveling a
bit wide into the first turn, Vinery Stables and Fox Hill Farm’s Friesan Fire
settled into a typical tracking position during the early stages of the 1
1/16-mile Louisiana Derby, within a couple of lengths of pacesetter PAPA CLEM
(Smart Strike) down the backstretch. With his natural speed, the bay colt always
puts himself into the race from the start, and when jockey Gabriel Saez pushed
the button approaching the stretch, the Louisiana Derby was quickly over.
Friesan Fire keeps getting better in each start this season for Larry Jones.
No factor in the Futurity S. (G2) and Nashua S. (G3) last fall, the
Kentucky-bred couldn’t beat Uno Mas (Macho Uno) when making his Fair Grounds
debut in a December allowance race. He earned his first stakes win in the
one-mile Lecomte S. (G3) on January 10, but many were more impressed with
runner-up PATENA (Seeking the Gold), who checked in a well-beaten eighth on
Saturday while making his first start for new connections (IEAH Stables/Richard
Dutrow). Friesan Fire captured the February 10 Risen Star S. (G3) next time out,
earning his first triple-digit BRIS Speed rating (100) for the two-length
victory, and he continued to take his game to a higher level in the Louisiana
Derby, garnering a 112 BRIS Late Pace number as well as 103 Speed.
He’s easily won his last two starts at 1 1/16 miles, galloping home in the
Louisiana Derby, and I think he will continue to improve at longer distances.
With his pedigree, Friesan Fire looks like a perfect fit for 1 1/4 miles.
Jones, who has finished second in the last two runnings of the Kentucky Derby
(G1), can now train the colt up to the first Saturday in May, and the seven-week
freshening looks like a benefit. Friesan Fire hasn’t had a break in the last six
months, similar to Hard Spun two years ago, and Hard Spun finished an
outstanding second to Street Sense off a six-week rest. Friesan Fire will get
seven weeks off, and Jones can give him plenty of time to recover before
tightening the screws in the weeks leading up to the May 2 Derby.
I loved the acceleration he displayed at the top of the stretch on Saturday,
and Friesan Fire will be as tough as nails if he carries that form forward at
Churchill Downs.
After getting away with soft fractions up front (:24, :48 3/5 and 1:13 1/5),
Papa Clem offered no resistance to the oncoming winner, but he dug in gamely
after being passed and repelled the late rally of TERRAIN (Sky Mesa), holding
off that rival by a head on the wire. Considering that he had just broke his
maiden two starts back, it was a solid effort in his first start on a dirt
track. The slop had to be quite a culture-shock for the California-based colt,
and the Gary Stute trainee was spotting a lot of seasoning to both Friesan Fire
and Terrain.
Papa Clem will need to show more in his final Derby prep, but he owns room
for improvement. After winding up on the lead by default Saturday, he’ll likely
get the opportunity to sit just off it next time before his offering his best.
Terrain gave a fine account of himself in his three-year-old debut. Second in
the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), the
chestnut gelding was probably a little short off the lengthy layoff, and he was
only runner to make an impact from off the pace in the Louisiana Derby. He’s
candidate to move forward in his upcoming starts for Al Stall Jr.
Rebel — Jer-Mar Stable’s Win Willy was content to trail his eight
rivals through the opening three-quarters of Saturday’s 1 1/16-mile Rebel. He
circled rivals on the far turn and entered the stretch with a full head of
steam, collaring the heavily favored OLD FASHIONED (Unbridled’s Song) at the
mile mark and driving clear to a 2 1/4-length win. It was quite a shocker.
The big question remains class. I thought Old Fashioned ran a good race for
second, finishing eight lengths clear of third, but he was softened up by rapid
early fractions. Win Willy couldn’t have been handed a better set-up, and I want
to see him run back to this performance next time. The Mac Robertson-trained
colt ran well in his previous start at Oaklawn Park, winning a six-furlong
allowance/optional claiming event by 1 1/2 lengths, but his Rebel came from out
of nowhere. The Canterbury Park maiden winner had never been two turns before.
Now three-for-three on dirt, Win Willy earned a strong 104 BRIS Speed rating
for the Rebel, and his connections reportedly turned down a $3 million offer for
him. The $25,000 yearling purchase has the breeding to get 10 furlongs, but he
still needs to prove that he’s good enough.
Old Fashioned is out of Meadowlake mare and looked vulnerable at longer
distances on Saturday, but it’s premature to give up on him in mid-March. He
didn’t enjoy a favorable trip in the Rebel, chasing SILVER CITY (Unbridled’s
Song) through ridiculous early fractions of :22 2/5 and :46, and jockey Ramon
Dominguez went after the pacesetter early, asking Old Fashioned for run midway
on the far turn. The previously unbeaten colt understandably tired through the
stretch, but he gained valuable fitness and should be much tighter next time
around.
As opposed to stablemate Friesan Fire, who has been in serious training since
the fall, Old Fashioned received a lengthy break following the Remsen S. (G2) in
November and is gradually working himself into top shape. He wasn’t at his best
in the Rebel, and Silver City looks like more of a sprinter/miler type who Old
Fashioned can hopefully avoid in his upcoming starts. I look for Old Fashioned
to run big on the front end in his final Derby prep. Whether he can handle 10
furlongs on Derby Day is a different question.
He doesn’t have a favorable pedigree for the distance, but horses outrun
their breeding and speed is always dangerous. It’s impossible to predict how
much speed will be in the 20-horse Derby field at this time of year, and
sometimes an expected fast pace doesn’t materialize. Old Fashioned’s best chance
in the Derby will be wire to wire.
San Felipe — Not sure what we learned with Pioneerof the Nile’s
victory in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe. Considering the questionable competition,
his connections were looking for a nice, easy race in preparation for the Santa
Anita Derby (G1) on April 4, but the Zayat Stables’ homebred wound up having to
work in the stretch to get the job done. Pioneerof the Nile still proved best,
and he remains an exciting prospect for the Kentucky Derby because all he does
is win for Bob Baffert, a three-time Derby winner.
Pioneerof the Nile looked most effective when offering his run from off the
pace in the Robert B. Lewis S. (G2) on February 7, and jockey Garrett Gomez was
looking for a similar trip in the San Felipe. But a slow pace forced his hand as
Pioneerof the Nile took off after the lead early on the backstretch, forcing the
rider to fight him for a while. Gomez finally got Pioneerof the Nile to settle a
little bit, but the colt moved to the front turning for home and was in a
sustained drive all the way to the wire.
The dark bay looks capable of much better in the Santa Anita Derby and
figures to appreciate the added sixteenth of a mile. However, Pioneerof the Nile
will need to improve his BRIS Speed ratings going forward. He’s never recorded a
triple-digit rating, receiving a dismal 92 for the San Felipe.
Tampa Bay Derby — Eric Fein and Vic Carlson’s Musket Man lost
positioning in traffic entering the far turn of the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby,
but the Derek Ryan-trained colt altered course to the outside and rallied boldly
into the stretch, eventually catching pacesetter JOIN IN THE DANCE (Sky Mesa) in
the final strides for a neck decision. The Kentucky-bred returned to the
winner’s circle after suffering his first career setback with a third in the
February 14 Sam F. Davis S. (G3).
Musket Man earned only a 93 BRIS Speed rating, and his best career effort
came in the seven-furlong Pasco S. when he notched a 101 figure. Runner-up Join
in the Dance, a 35-1 outsider, looked like a confirmed sprinter entering the
race, making his first six starts at 6 1/2 furlongs or less, and I doubt either one of the top two finishers wants to go much farther than Saturday’s
distance. It was a strange race.
GENERAL QUARTERS (Sky Mesa) and SUMO (Fusaichi Pegasus), the one-two
finishers at long odds in the Sam Davis, were never a factor in the Tampa Bay
Derby, checking in fifth and ninth, respectively. More surprising were the
performances of South Florida shippers HELLO BROADWAY (Broken Vow), WARRIOR’S
REWARD (Medaglia d’Oro) and NOWHERE TO HIDE (Vindication). The latter at least
managed a fourth, but none of them were in serious contention throughout the
race.
The Tampa Bay Derby doesn’t appear likely to have any impact upon this year’s
Kentucky Derby.
Upcoming — Saturday’s Lane’s End S. (G2) is the lone graded event for
three-year-olds this weekend, and Holy Bull S. (G3) third-placer WEST SIDE
BERNIE (Bernstein) will be the one to beat over Turfway Park’s Polytrack. The
Kelly Breen runner captured the Kentucky Cup Juvenile (G3) over the same oval
last September.