Iowa Derby

TRACK BANDIT PREVIEWS

We expect the speed to rule in Saturday’s $250,000 Iowa Derby (G3) at Prairie
Meadows, and while FORESTRY TYPE (Forestry) might force our selection to work a
little bit in the early stages of the 1 1/16-mile test, the feeling is that
CONCORD POINT (Tapit) is the faster of the two and will take some catching.
The four-start sophomore was a sharp second in the Lazaro Barrera Memorial S.
(G3) in his stakes bow last time, and while he hasn’t raced beyond seven
furlongs yet, his pedigree suggests the stretch-out should be well within his
scope.

Even if Concord Point fails to outrun Forestry Type to the lead, his tactical
foot would enable him to get first run at that speedster, who faces a major
class test in this heat. Another thing Concord Point has going for him is
trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Martin Garcia, who teamed up to win the Preakness
S. (G1) last month with Lookin at Lucky (Smart Strike). Concord Point’s lack of
experience on dirt is a concern, but a minor one to us.

WINSLOW HOMER (Unbridled’s Song) gamely held off Jackson Bend (Hear No Evil)
in the Holy Bull S. (G3), one of the first significant Kentucky Derby (G1) preps
of the season, in January, but he was sidelined by injury after that and missed
his shot at classic glory. He’s been training smartly for trainer Tony Dutrow in
recent weeks, firing a pair of bullets at Delaware Park, but he might be a
little rusty after five months on the shelf and a long trip to suburban Des
Moines. He’s another who would benefit from a fast pace.

Previous trips outside Churchill Downs have not worked out for
THISKYHASNOLIMIT (Sky Mesa), who lost by double digits in both the Saratoga
Special S. (G2) and Futurity S. (G2) last fall. On the other hand, he’s won
three of five at Churchill, including the Iroquois S. (G3) and Matt Winn S., the
latter on May 15 following a layoff of more than five months. He earned a
career-best 98 BRIS Speed rating for that performance, but regression is a
possibility away from his comfort zone. On the plus side, Matt Winn runner-up
Cool Bullet (Red Bullet) subsequently flattered the performance with a
two-length score in the Rumson S. at Monmouth Park.

VOW TO WAGER (Broken Vow), beaten nearly 11 lengths in the Matt Winn, came
back to run an even third in the Northern Dancer S. (G3), though that race could
have easily passed for a second-level allowance. DOWN WITH DIXIE (Purge), a
first-level allowance scorer at Churchill on May 29, would have to improve
considerably to factor for the win, which is a bit unlikely given he’s a veteran
of 11 starts already. Forestry Type has been competing on softer circuits
throughout his career. He held on comfortably to win the Prairie Mile S., the
local prep, by 2 1/4 lengths last out despite racing six-wide early. However,
unless the track comes up sloppy as it did that evening, we don’t see him being
effective against this higher grade of Thoroughbred.