BREEDERS’
CUP HANDICAPPING
Breeders’ Cup XXI enters the Lone Star State
by Richard Nilsen
For the first time ever, Lone Star Park is the setting for
Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships on October 30,
and unlike years past, handicappers have little to go on. The
Grand Prairie facility is unfamiliar territory for handicappers
used to tackling the Breeders’ Cup with a little history on their
side.
The dirt and turf courses at Lone Star Park figure to have an
important impact on the outcome of the races and, in search of an
edge, we will take a look at how this track typically plays for
similar distance/age levels as the eight Breeders’ Cup events.
Statistics date back to the spring of 2002.
Juvenile Races
Both juvenile races will be run at 1 1/16 miles. There were
131 races run at 8.5 furlongs found in the database.
Surprisingly, there was a low wire-to-wire win rate of only 19
percent at this route distance.
Tactical speed was a big plus as the average beaten lengths at
the first two calls were 2.7 and 1.4 lengths, respectively. Few
one-run closers were victorious, winning far fewer races than
expected statistically.
Look for runners who have good tactical speed while preferably
breaking from an inside post.
Distaff and Classic
Due to a lack of races at nine furlongs and beyond, we had to
analyze dirt routes as a whole. Two-thirds of the winners from
487 dirt routes were within three lengths of the lead at the
first call, and 84 percent were that close at the second call.
Tactical speed is vital as few deep closers (S types) were
victorious around two turns at Lone Star. Post position did not
appear to be much of a factor.
Mile
There were 95 one mile grass races for three-year-olds and up
since 2002. Inside posts held a significant advantage and,
conversely, outside posts were a burden.
Speed can win here as 18 percent of the winners were able to
lead the field gate to wire. Pressers (P) and Sustained types (S)
accounted for 58 percent of the winners, so there is a slight
edge to the runners from off the pace. The typical winner was 3.7
lengths from the lead at the first call and 2.3 lengths behind at
the second call.
Favor runners breaking from an inside or middle post who are
able to keep the leaders within their sights. Separate the
contenders by those that are capable of sustaining their late run
versus top graded stakes company. Good ratings to utilize here
are the BRIS Class Ratings and Late Pace figures.
Sprint
The track played surprisingly fair from 450 races run at six
furlongs for three-year-olds and up. Wire-to-wire winners
accounted for 31 percent of the races but plenty of winners came
from stalkers and mid-pack runners. Only deep closers, Sustained
types, were at a disadvantage.
Winners were also evenly spread out among the post positions.
The rail (one hole) did account for 13-percent winners, slightly
better than any other post.
Dissect the early BRIS Pace Ratings to determine if a quality
speed horse can get “clear” in this field. If there is
an abundance of early speed types with comparable pace ratings,
look for the winner to come from off the pace.
Turf Marathons
The Filly & Mare Turf is run at 1 3/8 miles as the fifth
leg of the Breeders’ Cup. The $2 million Turf is 1 1/2 miles.
Unfortunately there is an insufficient sample of turf marathons
at Lone Star, giving us little to go on.
It would be wise to put a premium on BRIS Class Ratings when
handicapping these fields. The BRIS Class Ratings, which include
Foreign Class Ratings on the imports, have done very well at
identifying the winners in past years.
Shippers
The analysis also took a look what locations produce turf
winners shipping into Lone Star. One circuit stood out above the
others. Southern California, specifically Hollywood Park and
Santa Anita, produced 21 percent turf winners and 54 percent in-the-money
runners from 24 shippers. Compare that to Kentucky, which
surprisingly produced only one winner from 20 grass starters for
a dismal 5 percent win rate. However there is one caveat with the
Southern Cal shippers. Despite their strong win rate, they
produced a -1.08 ROI for every $2 wagered.
On the dirt the result was similar as shippers from Southern
California were victorious 20 percent of the time with a -0.84 ROI for
every $2 wagered. Kentucky shippers, interestingly, fared
significantly better. Invaders from the Bluegrass State won at a
21 percent clip from 83 starters for a strong flat bet profit.
Rarely did a shipper come down from the Big Apple. New York
invaders won with one of 11 starters on the dirt with only two
hitting the board. Given the small sample size, one can take that
statistic with a grain of salt.
Stay Informed
It is recommended to stay in tune to the latest Breeders’ Cup
happenings via the Handicapper’s Edge newsletter, available free
every day at Brisnet.com. You’ll find all the latest news,
workouts, trainer/jockey quotes and more related to the big race
day. Look for handicapping articles like this leading up to the
big raceday. Bookmark it today!
Stay informed of the latest Breeders’ Cup happenings and you
may just enter this unfamiliar territory a little better prepared
than most other handicappers. Good luck!