SARATOGA DAILY NOTEBOOK
SUNDAY, AUGUST 21, 2005
by Dick Powell
Saratoga’s reputation of being the “Graveyard of Favorites” has been
undeserved this year. Favorites are dominating while winning at a 40 percent
clip and the fact is that chalk usually wins here at the same pace as other
tracks.
The Spa’s reputation was made on historic upsets of favorites in stakes races
but few of them have run dead last.
In today’s Saratoga Breeders’ Cup H. (G2), Offlee Wild (Wild Again) went off
as the 3-5 favorite based on a sharp win last out going today’s 10-furlong
distance in a fast time when winning the Suburban H. (G1). Ridden by leading
rider Edgar Prado and trained by the red-hot Richard Dutrow Jr., he looked worthy of
his pari-mutuel support.
Unfortunately, the main track this year has been quirky with the deeper
cushion. Some horses like it and some don’t, and when it gets wet it plays very
differently than the typical New York wet tracks.
Tap Day (Pleasant Tap) and SUAVE (A.P. Indy) went out after the lead and
dueled through a first half in :48.25. Prado had Offlee Wild clear on the
outside and it looked for most of the first mile that he had the leaders
measured. Johnny Velazquez took a clear lead going into the far turn on Suave
but Tap Day came back at him nearing the top of the stretch.
You could see Prado had no horse under him as he went to the whip on Offlee
Wild before the quarter pole and an upset was brewing. The question was who
would take advantage? Suave had already repelled one challenge by Tap Day and
then Royal Assault (Kris S.) was in a drive and looked like he might get up. But
Suave had another gear and spurted forward to a 2 3/4-length win. He covered the
10 furlongs in a pokey 2:03.38.
It was Velazquez’s first ride aboard Suave but he sounded after the race that
he had been on him forever.
“He makes you work,” Velazquez said. “He was a
handful in the gate, and he stumbled a little bit from there. I just wanted to
get him in good position going into the first turn. He settled nicely and was by
himself. Going down the backside, he put his ears up and started pulling out.
So, I let him drift to the outside and when Tap Day came back, I dropped him
back inside. And when both horses came to him (Tap Day on the inside, Offlee
Wild on the outside), he seriously started running.”
An explanation for Suave’s impressive performance might be the affinity that
offspring of A.P. Indy have for Saratoga’s main track going long. Plus, Suave’s
dam, the multiple Grade 1-winning Urbane (Citidancer), earned one of those Grade
1s here in the 1996 John A. Morris H. (G1). Suave’s prior best race was the Northern Dancer S. (G3) run
over a sloppy track at Churchill, where he earned a BRIS Speed figure of 106. Despite the
track being listed as “fast” there was plenty of moisture in it and Suave
probably benefited from it.
Prado was without answers after Offlee Wild’s dead last-place
performance.
“Once he got the three-eighths pole, he spit up the bit and didn’t
want to run. I’m surprised because he is a fighter and keeps going.”
More rain hit the Saratoga area Saturday night and all four turf races were
switched to the main track which started out as “good” and then was upgraded to
“fast” for the 6TH race. It was sealed but lightly harrowed and still had a lot
of moisture in it at the end of the day.
Mud caulks seemed to help with the winners of the 2ND, 4TH and 7TH races
wearing them. The New York Racing Association (NYRA) does a good job on their simulcast with shoe information and
it pays to pay attention. Running times were slower than normal going two turns.
D. Wayne Lukas found his way to the winner’s circle twice today. In the 5TH
race, EX CAELIS (Fusaichi Pegasus) battled with Serena’s Cat (Storm Cat) for the
lead in a seven-furlong maiden special weight event for juvenile fillies.
Turning for home, it looked like Serena’s Cat might get by her but Ex Caelis dug
in and drew off to a two-length win going the distance in 1:25.71.
Ex Caelis was third in her career debut from post 12 going six furlongs last
out in a wide trip but showed new-found speed today with Robby Albarado. Her dam
is a half-sister to three graded winners, including Fantastic Look,
who won the Fantasy Stakes (G1) going two turns. Ex Caelis cost $470,000 as a yearling
and should be able to handle longer distances.
In the 8TH race, A. P. ARROW (A.P. Indy), a half-brother to Grade 1 winner Geri, benefited from a very fast pace and got up in time by a head
over Spanish Mission (Coronado’s Quest). Beaten at 6-1 against this class level
last out here, he went off as the 9-5 favorite and covered the 1 1/8 miles in
1:51.82.
Spanish Mission ran a very game race to be second after stalking the first
half in :46.56 and six furlongs in 1:10.95. Prado swung out to engage the leaders
on the far turn and he looked like a winner as Prado was full of confidence
turning for home. But the fast fractions took their toll and he couldn’t repulse
the late challenge of A. P. Arrow even by bearing out in the deep stretch.
With the rain Saturday morning, many stakes horses took the morning off and
waited a day to work out. Unfortunately, it rained again last night and with
time running out the workout tab was quite busy.
LOST IN THE FOG (Lost Soldier) worked five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 over a muddy
track for Greg Gilchrist with Prado aboard. He came out of his win in the Carry
Back S. (G2) last month with a quarter crack and trained this morning with a bar
shoe on. Keep track of shoe changes next Saturday when the King’s Bishop (G1) is
run. If he’s still wearing the bar shoe he might be worth betting against.
BELLAMY ROAD (Concerto) worked five furlongs in company this morning in :59
4/5. After the work, trainer Nick Zito is still considering his options between
the King’s Bishop going seven furlongs or the Travers S. (G1) going 10 furlongs.
“Both races for Bellamy Road are obviously tough even though he’s an amazing
horse with a lot of ability,” Zito said. “They’re tough because one’s a
sprint race and you’re coming back against Lost in the Fog. On the other
hand, the Travers at a mile and a quarter, I don’t think the competition is (as
good as) Lost in the Fog. But that mile and a quarter…he hasn’t run in
four months. Either race is a tough decision. I need to think about it. I want to make sure I do the right thing.”
While the Travers might be tempting for Zito, I expect him to send Bellamy to the King’s
Bishop. Getting 10 furlongs without a race in almost four months at a distance
at which he has never won is a lot to ask. If he fails, it could set him back and hurt
him the rest of the year. With the main track playing slower than usual, Lost in
the Fog won’t be able to run away and hide and a strong seven furlong race — win
or lose — should set him up well for a fall campaign.
Horses To Watch
5TH – BETTER NOW (Thunder Gulch) figured to improve in her second lifetime
start and she rallied nicely to get third behind two speed horses.
8TH – DEPUTY INDY (A.P. Indy) rallied up the rail for third in good time
going two turns and usually shows better speed.
Monday Preview
Hard to tell if the races will stay on the turf tomorrow. It is sunny and low
humidity right now and should dry out the main track and turf courses.
6TH – Todd Pletcher sends out CHRISTMAS JONES (Forestry), who is a half-sister
to two Grade 2 winners on the turf. In a turf sprint, she should have good
speed with Forestry as her sire and Pletcher has had winners in each of the past
two days.
9TH – Leading owner Flying Zee Stables sends out an entry of WITCH WAYS WEST
(Western Expression) and UNNERVING (Dixie Brass). One likes the main track and
the other likes the turf, so they should be well protected no matter what
happens.