HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
JANUARY 6, 2006
by Dick Powell
Happy Birthday to all the two-year-olds of last year who are now
three-year-olds as of January 1. And that means that this year’s crop of
three-year-olds needs to be examined to determine who the major contenders will
be for this year’s Triple Crown.
The best tool to have is the “Ky Derby Winter Book” from Brisnet.com. The
ultimate past performances for more than 200 newly-turned three-year-olds are listed in alphabetical order, not only helping you get a head
start on this year’s Triple Crown, but also serving as a valuable reference
guide. It will especially come in handy when three-year-olds begin competing
against each other and you are looking back in past performance lines to gain
some familiarity with the horses in the race.
If you use BRIS’ Prime Power ratings, FIRST SAMURAI (Giant’s Causeway) was
the top rated two-year-old with a Prime Power figure of 160.5 Far behind are likely juvenile champion STEVIE WONDERBOY (Stephen Got Even) and HENNY HUGHES
(Hennessy), both listed at 152.4. Speedball IN SUMMATION (Put In Back) is fourth at 150.7, and
BROTHER DEREK (Benchmark) fills out the top five at 148.7.
First Samurai disappointed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), finishing a
dull third behind Stevie Wonderboy with first-time Lasix, but his prior efforts
were sensational and he gave every indication that 10 furlongs on the first
Saturday in May should be no problem with his terrific pedigree.
Stevie Wonderboy lost his first two starts going short but then reeled off
three straight wins, including a devastating win in the Juvenile. The final time
was sensational and he looked great doing it. He’s become a one-dimensional
closer as the races have stretched out but broke his maiden in a fast time at
Del Mar going 6 1/2 furlongs by sitting just off the early pace. The chestnut
will give his rider a lot of options and, pedigree wise, he can go all day.
Frank Brothers, trainer of First Samurai, and Doug O’Neill, trainer of Stevie
Wonderboy, will probably take the path of least resistance, running only two or
three times before May 6. It may not equal Biggie versus Tupac, but it should be fun
when the East Coast rival takes on his West Coast counterpart this spring.
Henny Hughes is going to be a tough one for new owner Godolphin to figure
out. He has a dosage index of 7.0, so 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May
appears out of his range. He’s fast and brilliant and is now wintering in
Dubai. We could see him on February 10 in the UAE Two Thousand Guineas (UAE-G3)
going a mile at Nad al Sheba Racecourse, with his ultimate goal in the desert
being the UAE Derby (UAE-G2) at 1 1/8 miles on March 25.
If Henny Hughes’ pedigree catches up to him, it might be tempting to send him
to England for the English Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-G1) at Newmarket going a
straight mile to try to enhance his future stud career. As talented as he is,
the chestnut just doesn’t give the impression that he’ll be a classic contender
over here.
In Summation won his first five starts last year at Calder before missing in
the In Reality division of the Florida Stallion S. when he was caught by a nose
in the last jump going two turns for the first time. He’s bred for speed top and
bottom but relaxed nicely in his lone route attempt. Cagey veteran trainer Frank
Gomez will have the task of stretching him out this year, but there’s a lot of
money available to him at Gulfstream before he has to try going long.
Fifth-rated Brother Derek has prospered in his three route races, including a
win in the Hollywood Futurity (G1) last out. If you want to be a snob and ignore
him because he’s a Cal-bred, you probably ripped up a lot of tickets when New
York-bred Funny Cide (Distorted Humor) won the Kentucky Derby (G1) and
Pennsylvania-bred Smarty Jones did it a year later.
Of the others, BLUEGRASS CAT (Storm Cat) has won his last three starts,
including stellar victories in the Nashua (G3) and Remsen (G2). In the Nashua,
he sat off a demanding pace and drew off to a courageous win then went
gate-to-wire in the Remsen.
My problem with him will be to avoid falling in love with him and his
fantastic pedigree — by Storm Cat out of an A.P. Indy mare who is a full sister
to graded winners Accelerator and Daydreaming. With stamina on his dam’s side
and speed on the sire end, Bluegrass Cat fits the bill of many recent Kentucky Derby
winners and, coming out of the Todd Pletcher barn, bears watching.
My sleeper choice for 2006 is MUSIC SCHOOL (A.P. Indy). An impressive debut
winner back in June at Churchill going 5 1/2 furlongs in fast time for Neil
Howard, he’s been on the sidelines since then but is now back in training. After
a very rough start, where he went to his knees and almost unseated Robby Albarado, he recovered nicely to contest the pace, take over turning for home
and hold off a late challenge.
Music School’s pedigree screams classic success. His second dam, Prospectors Delite (Mr. Prospector) won the Ashland S. (G1), the Acorn S. (G1) and the Fair
Grounds Oaks (G3). She was bred to A.P. Indy in her first season as a broodmare
and immediately produced Tomisue’s Delight, who won $1.2 million on the track
with major wins in the Ruffian H. (G1) at three and Personal Ensign H. (G1) at
four.
In her second season as a broodmare, Prospectors Delite was bred to Dixieland
Band and produced Delta Music, the dam of Music School. Delta Music won seven
races, including the Straight Deal Breeders’ Cup H. After being barren for a
year, Prospectors Delite was bred to Danzig and produced Monashee Mountain, who
after being sold as a yearling for $1 million won the Tetrarch S. (Ire-G3) in
Ireland at three.
Her next foal was Rock Slide, who earned more than $440,000 while taking the
Tenacious H. at Fair Grounds and the Sea O’Erin Breeders’ Cup Mile H. on the
turf at Arlington. With four stakes winners from her first four foals,
Prospectors Delite made it five for five when she dropped the 2003 Horse of the
Year, Mineshaft, winner of four Grade 1 stakes that year for breeder Lanes End
Farm.
The one year that Prospectors Delite was not bred to A.P. Indy, she produced
Delta Music. Lane’s End then bred her foal to A.P. Indy and the result was
Music School. Put him in your stable mail and follow his return to the races.
What he gives up in experience he more than makes up for with his pedigree.
*****
Many turf writers are bemoaning the 2005 racing season and its lack of
lasting star power. However, you have to qualify it as North American racing
might have had an off season because racing around the world was sensational
last year.
In Asia, we got to see SILENT WITNESS (El Moxie) win his first 17 races in
Hong Kong. He ended his season last spring when he went to Japan and was beaten
twice trying to go a mile. Owner Archie DaSilva and trainer Tony Cruz showed a
lot of class when they went right back to Japan this fall to win a Group 1
sprint for Silent Witness’s 18th win in 20 starts.
HURRICANE RUN (Montjeu [Ire]) rallied up the rail under a gutsy Kieren Fallon
to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Fr-G1) at Longchamp in France, and could
be the first repeat winner of Europe’s biggest race since Alleged (1977-78) if all goes
well this year. Hurricane Run beat a deep and talented field in the Arc, leaving eventual Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) winner Shirocco (Ger) (Monsun) in his wake.
DEEP IMPACT (Sunday Silence) won the Japanese Triple Crown while undefeated
and sparked a rejuvenation of racing in Japan. He went down to defeat in the
Arima Kinen S. (Jpn-G1) on Christmas Day when he faced older horses, losing
a tough one to the classy Heart’s Cry (Sunday Silence), but drew huge crowds and unimaginable
media attention.
And finally, when all looks lost and racing here in the States looks like it
will never regain its glory years, I just go on my computer and play the Cox Plate (Aus-G1), Australia’s premier weight-for-age event. Watching MAKYBE DIVA
(Desert King) rally nine wide to win going away against the best males in
Oceania is breathtaking. And it wasn’t even her best effort as she saved her
best for last.
After a week of speculation, owner Tony Santic and trainer Lee Freedman
announced that Makybe Diva was ready to defend her Melbourne Cup (Aus-G1) crown
for a third straight year. Rallying from 20th position with a half-mile to go
against a field of 24 going two miles, she split horses and suddenly emerged
from the huge pack of stayers and gained racing immortality. The track announcer
at Flemington that day called the finish “and a champion becomes a legend.”
Very well said.
You want great racing? It might not be in your backyard, but it’s out there
if you look for it. Happy New Year and I can’t wait to see how 2006 develops.