TAMPA BAY DOWNS NOTEBOOK
DECEMBER 31, 2012
by Bob Bauer
Racing resumed Wednesday and horseplayers were greeted with an “off” day. The
turf course was closed and the skies were showering on a good, sealed track.
Later, the track condition was upgraded to wet-fast for the final three races.
On these occasions, a bettor has to decide to play or pass. If you choose to
face an off track at Tampa, here are a few observations gained over the years.
First of all, be careful with your cash. There are many types of wet track
conditions that may be unique to the Oldsmar, Florida, oval. On days such as
this, it is helpful to watch a race or two to get a feeling for how the track is
playing. One may want to make more conservative wagers on off days. Sometimes,
the past performances and figures (no matter what their origin) are of little
use. It makes sense to look for horses that have done well before on off tracks.
If at Tampa, so much the better.
The Tampa track is sandy and deep, built of soil that is similar to that at
the famous beaches nearby. Its condition depends on how much rain falls. A light
to moderate shower may tighten up the surface making it favorable to early and
early/presser types.
It appears that this was the situation on Wednesday. In all 10 races, the
winner was two lengths or less behind at the first call. There didn’t appear to
be a post position bias. If you were on to this trend and bet well, good job.
Be aware the above is not the typical of a wet day in Tampa, the rain stopped
after the third race. Total precipitation was only about one-third of an inch.
It can dump inches of rain every hour sometimes. The track does not seem to
favor early speedsters when really sloppy, as Saratoga, Churchill or Aqueduct
may. This is where it all gets really tricky. If a lone speed isn’t going to
win, who will? Look for a late pace type on the outside. The inside lanes get
inundated as water collects there due to the banking of the track and runners on
the crown of the track seem to have better going. After the surface dries, the
rail may improve because it is the last part to dry and remains firm longer.
On Friday, conditions returned to normal with the dirt fast and the grass
firm. Speed went well in dirt sprints and a pair of routes were taken by
stalkers who made their moves in the stretch. A trio of turf routes were won by
closers who came from off the pace.
Saturday was a repeat of Wednesday, no turf racing and a wet-fast dirt track.
Early speed and pressers were dominant in sprints. Closers with good BRIS Late
Pace figures were the ones to back in route races.
The feature was the $50,000 Minaret Stakes for older fillies and mares, with
a field of six breaking from the agte. The victress, APPEALING STELLA (Closing
Argument) chased down a loose-on–the- lead speedball to score by 1 1/4 lengths.
Ridden by Angel Serpa, this Jane Cibelli trainee has won twice in three attempts
in Tampa.
Overnight rain gave us a turf course that was rated good on Sunday. Of the
three grass events that went, the first two were taken by close-up pressers who
were near the pace. The last went to a closer. The ninth race, originally carded
for the lawn, was moved to the fast main track. The dirt was much the same as it
has been. Sprinters in the first flight are the ones getting the money. Look for
one that can attend the pace and take over coming out of the turn, if there is
no lone early speed. If there is, the player has to consider the possibility of
a gate to wire trip. At any rate, early speed is necessary for success in
sprints now. The lone exception could be sprints longer than six furlongs where
a late pace standout could nail the speed. Late pace ability continues to be
winning in routes on the main track.
HORSES TO WATCH
Wednesday (12/26)
9TH — Belmont shipper CLARINDA (Empire Maker) gave a good account of
herself, besting a maiden special weight field after overcoming significant
trouble. She was trapped inside and waited until she found room in mid-stretch
and ran four-wide past the leader. Christophe Clement may have a runner here.
Friday (12/28)
6TH — STARSHIP BALLERINA (Smarty Jones), a four-year-old filly, got a rude
introduction to the local lawn. The chestnut stalked a brisk early pace inside
and was checked and shuffled back leaving the far turn and moved outside to come
again late in the stretch. She can compete with non-winners-of-three-lifetime,
and should benefit from this trip.
8TH — COMMON SENSE (Aptitude) finished dead last after being roughed up by a
rival in the final furlong while contending for the lead. Jockey Dean Butler was
forced to take up and lost all chance. This colt has won on the Tampa weeds
before and improvement is expected after this first race back in almost a year.
Saturday (12/29)
4TH — GRAND MAKER (Rainmaker) came back running after a 109-day break to win
a non-winners-of two-lifetime at nine furlongs, wearing blinkers for the first
time. He should be a contender versus non-winner-of-three-lifetime going a
distance of ground.
Sunday (12/30)
3RD — FAVORITE KETCH (Favorite Bid) was fractious in the starting gate and
broke awkwardly in his second lifetime start with $50,000 maiden claimers. This
effort is a throwout. He was only 3 3/4 lengths behind the winner in his debut
and should improve soon.
5TH — ANOTHER SMOKEY (Heckle) ran a good second against a field of horses
and geldings in a $16,000 claimer on the turf. This five-year-old gray mare has
back class and might be showing that she is ready to win against her own kind.