HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
FEBRUARY 1, 2013
by Dick Powell
Last week’s Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes was an interesting
handicapping proposition. If you believe in Speed figures, there were only a few
horses who had a legitimate shot. And when you factor in the speed-carrying
nature of the Gulfstream Park main track, there were even fewer horses in the
mix.
I thought Dale Romans’ Dewey Square was sitting
on a big race but he was too far back and never able to mount a challenge. The
even-money favorite was juvenile champion Shanghai Bobby, who
drew the rail with Rosie Napravnik. At 9-2 was Bern Identity and
just behind him came Itsmyluckyday.
Itsmyluckyday was coming off a sensational win in the
Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year’s Day, when he won by more than six lengths going a
mile and earned a gigantic BRIS Speed rating of 111. I doubt if any
three-year-old this spring will run faster going a mile or more.
The question mark around him was that he lost his two
previous races before freaking in his last race. But a race over the track is
always helpful and he showed an ability to run up on the pace last out which he
was going to need here.
Napravnik gunned Shanghai Bobby to the lead from post
1 and wound up setting a demanding pace. She had no choice to do it and last
year’s juvenile champion male responded beautifully. As fast as they were going,
at no time did Shanghai Bobby ever look rank. Clearly Now took
up the stalking position and Itsmyluckyday wound up three wide.
The trio covered the first half-mile in :46.68 and six
furlongs in 1:10.69. Elvis Trujillo began to apply pressure on the
outside aboard Itsmyluckyday, but Shanghai Bobby showed no signs of weakening
while Clearly Now could not keep up. Turning for home, it was a two-horse race but Itsmyluckyday’s momentum kept him going and he began to draw off. The final
margin was two lengths and the final time of 1:41.81 for the 1 1/16 miles was a
new track record.
Itsmyluckyday earned a BRIS Speed rating of 106, which
matches up very well with his 111 in his prior start. When you factor in the
ground he lost racing three wide around both turns, it was probably equal to
that prior start. He clearly loves the main track here and if the Kentucky Derby
were run at Gulfstream Park in the winter, he would be the heavy favorite.
For Shanghai Bobby, it was a good way to begin his sophomore campaign. He should get a lot out of the race in terms of conditioning and he
showed that the transition from two to three has not been a problem. His BRIS Speed rating of 103 equals his
two-year-old best and he did it going two turns. Todd
Pletcher indicated the Grade 1 Florida Derby is next on the schedule and I would
think that he’ll be trained to the minute for that event.
*****
If you are like me, you probably like to print out your
BRIS Ultimate Past Performances. It can get rather expensive but we do it
because we want something tangible instead of scrolling around a computer
screen.
Over the years, I have spent lots of money printing out the Ultimates but it’s still cheaper than buying a daily racing newspaper that is
filled with tracks that I am not interested in. Paper and toner can get
expensive even though printers have come down in price but I have found some
ways to cut costs that I will share with you.
First is the actual printer. There are many on the market
but I recommend that you use a black and white laser printer instead of a color,
inkjet model. The one that I am using now is a Brother HL5470DW that prints 40
pages per minute. Amazingly, it only cost $200 and it does duplex and has WiFi
connectivity.
Surprisingly, I bought it at Staples, which now has an
amazing collection of printers and other computer equipment. They had more
printers for sale than Best Buy across the street and as many laptops. Very
quietly, Staples has become a technology company and it’s worth making your
first stop there when looking for equipment.
Once you buy a laser printer, ignore the warnings that
using generic toner cartridges will void your warranty. The printer cost $200
and the replacement toner cartridge costs over $100 so anything that gets the
cost of the toner down is well worth it. If something goes wrong and you get
caught violating the warranty, you can buy another printer with the money you
have saved.
I buy replacement toner cartridges for about $40 each. They
are supposed to print 8,000 pages but that has never been achievable since the
amount of toner used to print out a page (called coverage) of past performances
is substantial so if I get 5,000 pages I am happy. You can find them for sale on
the internet from numerous companies. If you get lucky, you might even get a
deal that includes free shipping.
I have been using generic replacement toner cartridges for
years and have never had a problem with them. The threat to void the printer
warranty really has no impact on what you are doing and it is the main way that
you can save money printing out your own past performances.
With toner costs under control, the final piece of the
puzzle is the paper you use to print on. For a long time, you had to accept the
price of a case of white copy paper (5,000 sheets). But lately, I have been
getting emails from Staples and they have had some terrific deals if you are a
rewards member. I bought a case of paper for as low as $20 due to a $25 coupon
and also paid full value for a case but received an equal amount back in
rewards.
The printer is the constant and the paper and toner
cartridges are the variables. Once you can control your variable cost, you’re in
business and the money saved can be effectively utilized for other worthwhile
pursuits. Like having more money to bet.