DEROSA’S BLOG
MARCH 23, 2013
Spiral balancing act: what if Mac isn’t The Man?
by Ed DeRosa
A popular tenet of wagering on horses is to “bet with your
head, not your heart” (also: “bet with your head, not over it”).
I’m trying to keep that in mind (and take it to heart) when it comes to plotting
my wagering course for Spiral Stakes day on Saturday at Turfway Park, but it’s
hard for me not to get excited about Mac the Man being in the gate for the
Spiral Stakes (click for free
Brisnet.com Ultimate PPs w/ comments for both
Kentucky Derby Championship races this weekend).
I’ve had Mac the Man ranked second on my
Kentucky Derby poll
since the El Corredor colt
won the 96Rocks Stakes on February 2 at
Turfway Park. He wasn’t there then — and he’s not there now — because I think
he is the second-most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby. Rather, I just thought he’d be overlooked given his location (Turfway)
and connections (trainer Jeff Greenhill).
I.e., 200-1 certainly seemed like the right price to take on one of only a
few multiple stakes winners among this crop who had run fast enough to date to
indicate that a Derby win wouldn’t be out of the question with improvement.
Admittedly, I’m more concerned with his pedigree than his speed, but if he’s in
the Derby gate I won’t need to worry about it that much with this price locked
in.
OK, you get it; I like Mac the Man. So how do you bet the race? I don’t think
we’ll get the 10-1 morning line, but betwixt Uncaptured, Balance the Books
and Capo Bastone I can’t imagine we’ll have to take anything less than 5-1 on
Mac the Man.
Uncaptured is the morning-line favorite, and while I do think he will be the
wagering choice, he doesn’t seem to be the pick of many handicappers. Marty
McGee of Daily Racing Form fame is against him in the top spot as is Joel
Cunningham of Triple Crown Insider.
I wouldn’t like Balance the Books at Mac the Man’s morning-line price let alone
as the second choice against this group. I like Uncaptured more, but I’m willing
to play against him as the favorite.
All this means that while Mac the Man is “the top pick,” I certainly don’t want
to be ripping up tickets if Jill Byrne’s picks — My Name is Michael (10-1) &
General Election (12-1) — come in because I think they’re capable enough at
nice prices.
Turfway Park has a great multi-race wagering menu with $.50 minimums on all Pick
Ns — rolling Pick 3s, Pick 4s that start in races 1, 5, & 7, and a Pick 5 in
races 7-11. The all-graded stakes Pick 3 (races 8-10) anchors the Pick 4 and is
the meat in the Pick 5 sandwich. It’s conceivable that not a single favorite
wins, though Pure Fun in the Bourbonette Stakes looks to be the most
likely winner on the back half of the card.
I won’t be able to resist keying Mac the Man in Pick Ns and playing him across
the board at a nice price, but I’m willing to give up some value on him to bet
against the favorites as well.
We’ll be back later with
Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Pool 3 discussion and next week with
Road To The Roses strategy.