BELMONT REPORT
JUNE 7, 2013
by James Scully
A fast-approaching storm promises to drench Belmont Park, leaving a wet track
for Saturday’s 145th running of the Belmont Stakes, and the pace scenario is
another major element to handicapping the race.
The 1 1/2-mile event tends to play favorably toward horses with tactical
speed — confirmed closers are at a disadvantage because the leaders go slower
than normal at the extended distance — but this year looks like an exception.
It was a fast and contested pace 17 years ago, the last time 14 horses headed
postward in the Belmont Stakes, with opening fractions of :46 4/5 and 1:10 4/5.
Those proved to be optimal conditions for Editor’s Note and My Flag, who were
12th and 13th after the first half-mile before rallying to finish first and
third, respectively. The dueling front-runners, including ’96 Preakness winner
Louis Quatorze, got burnt up on the front end.
By comparison, the 2012 Belmont featured early splits of :49 1/5 and 1:14
3/5, which is more along the lines of how the race often develops.
Whether they’re dueling on the lead or it’s a runaway pacesetter like Palace
Malice going too fast to last, this year’s Belmont is going to set up for late
runners, playing more like the Kentucky Derby than the Preakness. The top three
finishers at Churchill Downs were all 15th or worse after a vicious opening
half-mile in 45 2/5 seconds, but Oxbow surprised everyone at Pimlico when he got
clear early and slowed the pace down.
Saturday’s pace players include Frac Daddy, who drew one spot inside of
speedball Freedom Child and appears committed to racing on the front end.
Freedom Child has only one chance — on the lead — and it should be interesting
to see how fast he sprints from the gate. Oxbow can’t be taken a hold of (see
the Arkansas Derby) and will be up close from the start as well.
And there’s the possibility of a wildcard, with Palace Malice, Giant Finish,
Vyjack and Midnight Taboo all lurking as candidates to make an early bid.
I’m taking a stand against the speed horses, building my wagers around four
horses.
Selections
Orb is the top pick. He never looked comfortable after breaking from the rail
post in the Preakness and spit the bit early, but the Belmont takes place over
his home track and he possesses one of the better pedigrees for the distance.
And we know he loves the mud, registering a career-best 111 BRIS Speed rating for his
convincing Kentucky Derby win.
The Preakness halted talk of his overwhelming superiority, but Orb reeled off
five consecutive wins prior to the setback, improving greatly along the way (89
Speed rating for a win in January) while overcoming all kinds of circumstances.
He’s trained forwardly since the Preakness, according to all reports, and the
Belmont should set up perfectly for the division leader.
Golden Soul would not offer much appeal on a fast track, but the mud-loving
lark can’t be overlooked following his runner-up effort in the Derby. The Dallas
Stewart trainee needed a little time to recover from that massive effort, but
all systems appear ready to go following a sharp five-furlong breeze last week.
He’s bred for the trip on both sides of his pedigree and post 14 is no concern
for the one-run closer — the chestnut should be rolling by the far turn.
Consider for an upset.
Revolutionary also appears capable of capitalizing upon a hot pace. The
inside draw did him no favors in the Derby, but he came on belatedly for third
and rates as an excellent candidate to take a step forward from post 9 in the
Belmont. Javier Castellano, who bolted in favor of Normandy Invasion following
Revolutionary’s win in the Louisiana Derby, gets back aboard the talented late
runner.
Unlimited Budget is bred to relish wet conditions and figures to get first
jump on the late runners – she’s an upset threat in her first start against
males. A three-time stakes winner, the filly lacked the needed late punch after
racing close throughout in the Kentucky Oaks, sustaining her first career loss
when third, but she’ll settle into a more favorable position in midpack
Saturday. The filly overcame a near 10-length deficit with a brilliant middle
move in the Rachel Alexandra earlier this year and should receive a similar
set-up on Saturday.
Betting
Utilizing a $100 bankroll, I will recommend the following wagers on the
Belmont Stakes:
$35 win Orb
$1 trifecta box: 5-9-13-14 (Orb-Revolutionary-Unlimited Budget-Golden Soul)
($24)
10-cent superfecta part-wheel: 5 over 9,13,14 over All over All ($39.60)
Enjoy the Belmont Stakes!