HANDICAPPING INSIGHTS
DECEMBER 6, 2013
by Dick Powell
Four big days of racing from Thanksgiving Day weekend — where do we begin?
I’ll start out with a two-year-old filly who was ultra impressive.
In Saturday’s 2ND race at Churchill Downs for juvenile fillies going seven
furlongs on the main track, Dallas Stewart had a second-time starter who caught
my eye. Most of my attention on Saturday was on the card at Aqueduct but I love
two-year-old racing and Churchill delivered with a dozen juvenile events on its
Stars of Tomorrow II program.
In looking at the dozen juvenile fillies, Unbridled Forever (Unbridled’s
Song) kind of jumped off the page. She showed a good, middle move in her career
debut at Churchill last month going a mile and now had a race under her belt
while drawing much better. Robbie Albarado was back and Lasix was going on for
the first time. Her workouts since then were solid and she had the form of a
second-time starter who should improve leaps and bounds for a trainer who is not
known for having them wound too tight for their debut.
But what really caught my eye was her pedigree. Her dam is none other than
Lemons Forever, winner of the Kentucky Oaks back in 2006 for Stewart. Here was
her foal by a top sire at 9-2 on the board with lots of other factors to like as
well.
I quickly made a bet on Unbridled Forever and, unlike most hot two-year-olds,
she went to 5-1 then 6-1 at post time. After a flat-footed start, Albarado was
able to thread his way through traffic to where he was in good position going
into the turn.
The pace for the seven-furlong event was honest
—
:22.61 for the first quarter-mile and :45.54 for the half. Albarado had
Unbridled Forever passing horses willingly and arrived at the top of the stretch
right next to early leader and 17-10 favorite, Resistivity (Student Council).
Without any real urging from Albarado, Unbridled Forever opened up in the
stretch to a commanding lead. She stretched it out to 5 1/4 lengths at the wire
and was the easiest of 6-1 winners.
The ease of her stretch run was a distraction to what was going on with the
teletimer. She covered her third quarter-mile in :23.94 and her final furlong in
:12.43, making her final time for the seven furlongs 1:21.91!
There were three other seven-furlong races run on the main track at Churchill
on Saturday. The 5TH race was for juvenile filly maiden special weights and they
ran 1:23.92; the 8TH race was for juvenile maiden special weights and they ran
1:23.22; and the 12TH race was for juvenile maiden special weights and they ran
1:23.76. I know it can be simplistic but Unbridled Forever’s final time sticks
out like a sore thumb and watching how little encouragement she needed to do it
makes me think she has a big chance to be a major part of the first Friday in
May.
***
I have thought long and hard and can’t remember a horse who was able to
accomplish what Will Take Charge (Unbridled’s Song) has done the second half of
2013. He was absolutely dreadful in the three Triple Crown races. I know he had
a bit of an excuse in the Kentucky Derby but he still showed nothing in the next
two legs.
How he was able to turn his year around is beyond me. It is certainly a
tribute to his 78-year-old Hall of Fame trainer Wayne Lukas who has endured
criticism throughout his career for running horses in spots they did not belong
in. After the Belmont, I thought a career on turf might be in store for Will
Take Charge but there he was in the Jim Dandy (G2), with blinkers removed,
rallying for second behind the more well-regarded Belmont Stakes (G1) winner
Palace Malice (Curlin).
In the Travers (G1), he looked hopelessly beaten with 100 yards to go but
surged at the wire to win by a shocking nose over Palace Malice and Derby winner
Orb (Malibu Moon). Now it was on to the Pennsylvania Derby (G2) where it looked
like the speedy Moreno (Ghostzapper) would benefit the most from the
nine-furlong distance but the flashy chestnut with the white blaze rallied
through a big opening on the rail to win his second $1 million race in a row.
Onto the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and once again, when the running got
serious, there was Will Take Charge looking to grab American racing’s biggest
prize. He fell a desperate nose short of Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) but beat
all the other three-year-olds in the race.
Last Friday’s Clark Handicap (G1) looked like a match race between
multi-millionaire Game On Dude (Awesome Again) and Will Take Charge. Match races
are supposed to go to the horse with the most early pace and Game On Dude had it
in spades. Unfortunately, nobody bothered to tell Will Take Charge and he
rallied again to win it by a head as the second choice in the betting.
I’m not big on worrying about who is going to be voted Horse of the Year or
three-year-old male champion but he certainly has put himself into the
conversation in both categories.
***
Flat Out’s (Flatter) win in the Cigar Mile (G1) had an interesting
handicapping angle to it. Yes, we all know that he loves Belmont Park where he
has won five-of-seven starts and more than $1.6 million in earnings. But in the
Cigar Mile, he was making his first start on the Aqueduct main track despite
being seven-years old.
Yes, he loves Belmont. But a further inspection of his record shows that he
also likes going one turn. And, there was nothing to indicate that he was not
going to dislike Aqueduct. In a roughly-run race, Junior Alvarado kept him out
of trouble and the old timer has his customary late kick down the lane to run
down early leader Private Zone (Macho Uno).
Groupie Doll (Bowman’s Band) just missed winning the race last year, when she
was run down in the last stride by Stay Thirsty. This year, she was coming into
the race off another win in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) but it
all went wrong on the far turn when Clearly Now (Horse Greeley) clipped heels
with Private Zone and veered sharply into Groupie Doll, who then bounced around
off Laugh Track (Distorted Humor).
By the time Rajiv Maragh got her untangled, the race was essentially over as
Flat Out had already made his big move. However, Groupie Doll ran on gamely to
be fourth and who is to say she wasn’t the best. There was talk after the race
that the Cigar Mile might not have been her final start.
***
If you saw flashes in the Eastern sky last week, they were coming from the
Tattersalls December Breeding Stock Sale and the fireworks set off in the
auction ring when the broodmares in foal to the unbeaten phenom Frankel were put
up for sale. The mares in foal to him weren’t just sought after — they were
lusted after.
The highlight was Dancing Rain (Danehill Dancer), winner of Epsom (Eng-G1)
and German Oaks (Ger-G1) in 2011. She sold for 4 million guineas on a final bid
from John Ferguson on behalf of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum. All told,
there were seven mares in foal to Frankel who sold while two did not meet their
reserve. The seven sold averaged 1,013,571gns, which is $1,654,575 in U.S.
dollars.
Combined with the Goffs November sale, Keeneland November and Fasig-Tipton
November, 14 mares in foal to Frankel sold for an average of $1,497,574. Can you
imagine what his yearlings will bring in 2015?