DEROSA’S BLOG
FEBRUARY 22, 2014
Risen Star & Fountain of Youth
by Ed DeRosa
I’m rarely a one-factor handicapper, but sometimes a particular factor is so
glaring and the corresponding price so generous that analysis beyond that one
variable just seems like platitude.
In the case of Rise Up in the Risen
Star Stakes on Saturday at Fair Grounds Race Course (click the stakes name
for FREE Brisnet.com Ultimate
Past Performances with Comments), I could wax poetic about his superior pace
ratings, best last out Speed Rating, and class edge (based on Brisnet.com
Class Ratings), but really, at the expected price (at least 5-2), all I need
to know is that Rise Up has a 10-point Prime
Power advantage on the field, and a gap of 10 or more points in dirt races
wins 55 percent of the time!
When handicappers say “there is a lot of speed in the race” they usually mean
“there are a lot of horses who like to run on or near the lead.” That’s
certainly the case in the Risen Star with 10 of the 14 expected starters (Bond
Holder scratched and Teniente Coronel is on the also-eligible list) having
either an “E” or “E/P” running style, but only Rise Up has posted a triple digit
E1 pace rating, and he won two of the three starts in which he did so
gate-to-wire, including the Delta Jackpot Stakes in which he received a 98
Brisnet.com Speed Rating, which easily tops this group.
I.e., if he runs 100 again, it doesn’t matter how many other horses want the
lead because Rise Up will get it, and we already know he’s fast enough off that
kind of pace. He is my pick for the win and the TwinSpires.com
Road To the Kentucky Derby SHOWdown competition.
Speaking of that, there are 1,176
people still alive for the $1 million prize and 30 still alive in our
last
longest game on Twitter.
Before you can get to the Risen Star, though, you have to get past the Fountain
of Youth, and I’m admittedly less confident in my pick there than in the
Risen Star, but I landed on General a Rod, who appears to the choice of Javier
Castellano and figures to sit a good stalking trip behind the likes of Almost
Famous and Wildcat Red.
Speaking of those two, I’ve given up on the former but don’t think the latter
is up against as some people think. Is he a Kentucky Derby/1 1/4-mile horse?
Probably not, but can he do well in this race going 1 1/16 miles on the main
track at Gulfstream from post 4 with a hot jock (Luis Saez) in the irons?
Certainly.
Neither Commissioner nor Top Billing would surprise anyone, including me, but
I think both will be too short in the betting. In the interest in seeing the
most people advance in the SHOWdown competition, I’ll take a General a Rod, Top
Billing, Commissioner trifecta as long as General a Rod wins, but from a
wagering standpoint I certainly prefer Wildcat Red to the two favorites at the
price.
As if either card needed anything extra to be alluring besides the first two
85-point races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, but huge carryovers in both
the Rainbow 6 at Guflstream and the Black Gold 5 at Fair Grounds add intrigue,
and TwinSpires.com
is offering 1-million points for those who hit each wager.
In the Rainbow 6, Onlyforyou in the Davona Dale looks like one of the most
likely winners, but Aurelia’s Belle and Penwith both intrigue and are two I
wouldn’t mind having on most tickets. My top two picks in Canadian Turf Stakes
are Salto and Bad Debt.
The Black Gold Five begins with four graded stakes before ending with
Louisiana-bred maidens. Shannon Nicole could be a separator horse early in the
Rachel Alexandra, and I’ll be using her on all tickets, as my other picks in the
sequence — Daddy Nose Best in the Fair Grounds Handicap, Rise Up in the Risen
Star, and Prayer For Relief in the Mineshaft Handicap — aren’t exactly reaches.
An interesting horse in the nightcap at 15-to-1 is Everett’s Legacy, whose dam’s
two foals to race are both winners and whose sire, Half Ours, sends out 15
percent debut winners. Robby Albarado aboard for a 20 percent trainer adds to
the intrigue, though Frank Leggio is winless in his last 20 maiden special
weight attempts. Still worth 15-to-1, though, and a must use on the multi
tickets.
Not a part of the Rainbow 6 or any Pick 4 is the 6TH race on Saturday at
Gulfstream, an entry-level allowance race featuring Triple Crown hopefuls such
as Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2 entries Matterhorn and Tonalist. Neither
of those would surprise, though I think Constitution is the most likely winner.
I’m selling Mexikoma, whose hype and outside post means a likely underlay on
him.
Good luck this weekend!
If you don’t like what I have to say about these Kentucky
Derby prep races, then check out what
Triple
Crown Insider has to say.