Turf Diary

TURF DIARY

NOVEMBER 1, 2006

by Kellie Reilly

As the excitement and tension build with the rapid approach of Breeders’ Cup
Day, the time has come to unveil my selections in the Turf (G1) and Mile (G1). I
would like to claim that I arrived at these prognostications
in the cold light of reason alone, but that wouldn’t be true. All of these
horses are individuals of extraordinary quality, like priceless works of art.
Would I rather have the Jacques-Louis David, or the della Francesca? The Raphael or the Rublev? Still, choose I must.

BREEDERS’ CUP TURF:

Although our chief American hopes are game and genuine competitors who are
worthy on their day, I suspect that the Europeans will once again hold the upper
hand in this 1 1/2-mile prize.

1st — I’ve got to keep faith with the Aidan O’Brien-trained
SCORPION (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]), a horse that I have loved since his debut maiden
victory at Leopardstown last year. As soon as I came across the result of that
race, I marked him in my binder as an intriguing prospect, not only because of
his Coolmore connections, but especially because he hails from the rich female
line of champion Ardross. It didn’t take the bay very long to repay my interest.
Making just his fourth career start in the 2005 Irish Derby (Ire-G1), he gave
HURRICANE RUN (Ire) (Montjeu [Ire]) all he could handle, succumbing by only a
half-length after forcing Europe’s eventual Horse of the Year to work hard for
the victory. Scorpion came right back to claim the 1 1/2-mile Grand Prix de
Paris (Fr-G1) at Longchamp in slashing style, and
then mastered the extended 1 3/4 miles of the St Leger (Eng-G1) to capture
England’s oldest classic. He never got involved in last year’s Prix de l’Arc de
Triomphe (Fr-G1), winding up 10th, but he promised to be one of the leading
lights among the older brigade in 2006.

Unfortunately, Scorpion suffered a fractured hind pastern that ruled him out
for most of his four-year-old season. O’Brien managed to bring him back in time
for one prep in Ireland before setting off on his international campaign. The
ground was officially soft to heavy for the October 8 Finale S. at the Curragh,
not his favored going, but he still rallied for second, beaten only a length
when tiring a tad late,
with the third-place finisher another seven lengths astern. As noted in my last
International Diary, Scorpion should improve markedly for this tune-up, and he
has loads more class than his stablemate Ace (Ire) (Danehill), who was runner-up
in the 2005 Turf.

To sum up, the bay has first-rate European form on his resume, as well as
tactical speed and the ability to cope with firm or reasonably soft ground
(although not a bog). Mick Kinane will pilot Scorpion, who should go off at an
attractive price.

Hurricane Run will try to rebound off a third in the Champion S. (Lauren Pomeroy/Horsephotos.com) 2nd — Hurricane Run hasn’t been the same horse this fall, but he still merits considerable respect as a world-class animal. If he can conjure up his best, the Andre Fabre charge will be very difficult to beat, and even if a bit below his best, he should still finish in the frame. Hurricane Run’s crowning moment of 2006 came in the July 29 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot, where he found a telling change of gear late to soar past Electrocutionist and Japanese champion Heart’s Cry (Sunday Silence). Although he hasn’t run up to that level in his three subsequent starts, the bay hasn’t run badly either. He suffered a narrow loss to his stablemate (and last year’s Turf winner) Shirocco (Ger) in the Prix Foy (Fr-G2), an Arc prep in which neither was given a hard time. When trying to defend his title in the Arc itself, he wound up fourth, beaten 3 1/4 lengths, after being short of room on the inside at one point in the stretch. Last time out in the October 14 Champion S. (Eng-G1), he found himself setting the early pace, a scenario that really doesn’t play to his strengths. Also in his defense, that 1 1/4-mile distance is rather short for him in top company. Hurricane Run was soon put in his place by the brilliant mare Pride (Peintre Celebre), and he just lost second to ROB ROY (Lear Fan), who’s an intriguing dark horse in the Mile (G1). There’s been a fair bit of discussion about how Hurricane Run’s record resembles that of his sire, Montjeu (Ire), whose form had also tailed off in the autumn of his four-year-old year, culminating in a seventh in the 2000 Turf, ironically also at Churchill Downs. While all of this makes for fascinating reading, it can also create an air of determinism — if not pessimism — regarding Hurricane Run’s chances.

Refusing to fall prey to this creeping
fatalism, I believe that Hurricane Run is eligible to make up for his sire’s
failure here. Stepping back up to his preferred trip in the Turf, in a sizeable
field with a definite pacesetter, Hurricane Run could well rebound. Note that Christophe Soumillon, who has not ridden him since the King George, will be back
aboard. After the King George, owner Michael Tabor was quoted in the Racing
Post as saying that Soumillon had “galvanized” Hurricane Run in that
contest. Perhaps he can galvanize him at Churchill as well.

3rd — Regular readers of my International Diary may recall that I’ve
been mentioning J. Paul Reddam’s RED ROCKS (Ire) (Galileo [Ire]) since
the Royal Ascot preview edition in June. Since I’ve been on his bandwagon for
months, I’m not about to get off now. As detailed in the October installment,
the three-year-old boasts excellent form with this year’s Arc hero, Rail Link (Dansili
[GB]). The Brian Meehan colt failed to stay the marathon distance of the St
Leger last time out and should enjoy cutting back in trip here. Effective on
both good and soft ground, Red Rocks has shown tactical speed in most of his
starts and will benefit from the masterful presence of Frankie Dettori in the
saddle.

Intriguing Longshot — T. H. APPROVAL (With Approval). Although
the gray has a lot to prove in his first start outside of California, he’s gone
from strength to strength this season for Eduardo Inda, as noted in the last
issue of the Turf Diary. Not blessed with push-button acceleration, he tends to
gather momentum before steadily grinding his opponents down to size. T. H.
Approval figures to close resolutely, and if any of Europe’s or America’s more
fancied contenders flop, he could finish in the frame.

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE:

Our American defenders will likely prove to be formidable in the Mile, as
Europe’s supremo GEORGE WASHINGTON (Ire) (Danehill) has opted for a bold bid in
the Classic (G1).

1st — ARAGORN (Ire) (Giant’s Causeway) has looked like
something very special this summer, and even though he’s facing stiffer
competition over a course that isn’t identical to the California turf that he’s
set ablaze, I can’t go against him. My last Turf Diary found fault with his
victory in the October 7 Oak Tree Breeders’ Cup Mile S. (G2), as I was concerned
that he didn’t finish as exuberantly as usual. After the typically understated
Neil Drysdale sounded a note of confidence last week, I’ve decided to cast my
anxieties into my burgeoning “Making a Mountain out of a Molehill” file and
trust that the Oak Tree performance was part of Drysdale’s grand design.

“I feel as good about him as any horse I’ve sent to the Breeders’ Cup Mile,”
the Hall of Famer told the Hollywood Park Press Office.

Not only does Aragorn have a high cruising speed that enables him to stay
close early, but the chestnut then puts his rivals to the sword with devastating
acceleration. That brilliance has been on display in his three prior wins — the
Shoemaker Breeders’ Cup Mile S. (G1); the Eddie Read H. (G1), in which he set a
new course record of 1:44 3/5 for nine furlongs; and the Del Mar Breeders’ Cup
H. (G2).

I hope he gets good-to-firm ground, because I don’t think softish going would
suit him as well.

Araafa is a classic winner in Ireland (Lauren Pomeroy/Horsephotos.com) 2nd —  ARAAFA (Ire) (Mull of Kintyre) is the best of the Europeans, considering his form with George Washington. In the Irish Two Thousand Guineas (Ire-G1), Araafa reveled in the soft ground and famously upset George, who exited his struggle on the bog with muscle injuries. Araafa’s no mere mudlark, however, as he proved when surging to an emphatic two-length victory in the St. James’s Palace S. (Eng-G1) over Royal Ascot’s good going. After a subpar fifth in the Sussex S. (Eng-G1) at Goodwood, he rebounded with a sterling runner-up effort to George in the September 23 Queen Elizabeth II S. (Eng-G1) at Ascot last time out. Trainer Jeremy Noseda is no stranger to Breeders’ Cup success, having masterminded Wilko’s (Awesome Again) shock win in the 2004 Juvenile (G1). In last year’s Mile, Noseda’s Majors Cast (Ire) was a creditable fifth, beaten a total of two lengths. With due respect to the late Majors Cast, who was a gallant overachiever, Araafa is considerably more accomplished. Interestingly, John Velazquez picks up the mount on Araafa, who usually takes up a close stalking position and figures to enjoy a similar trip to Aragorn. Araafa holds a strong chance on any ground, but with every possible drop of rain, his stock rises. 3rd — GORELLA (Fr) (Grape Tree Road [GB]) was an unlucky third in last year’s Mile, and if she hadn’t had a nightmarishly troubled passage, she’d probably be entering this year’s edition as the defending champion. Having said that, I believe the 2006 Mile boasts a tougher group than the 2005 cast (Leroidesanimaux [Brz] was clearly compromised at that time by foot problems). This time around, the Patrick Biancone filly will need to produce her dazzling best, in addition to getting a clean trip, to conquer the males. Gorella has been nothing short of sublime this season, with her only loss coming as a troubled fifth versus males in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (G1) at Churchill. The chestnut has been invincible against her own sex, capturing the Just a Game H. (G2) and Beverly D. S. (G1) in imperious fashion, and most recently scoring a brave victory in the October 14 First Lady S. (G2) at Keeneland, as outlined in my last Filly & Mare Turf Diary. In the First Lady, Gorella had to make two moves within about a furlong to win — one to take the lead, and another to fend off a valiant Karen’s Caper (War Chant) by a nose.

In terms of raw ability, Gorella is eminently qualified to join the elite
club of females who have landed the Mile. The key questions are these: 1) Will
she get a reasonably free passage, or will her momentum be stopped at a crucial
moment? 2) Coming from the clouds, will she simply have too much ground to make
up on the likes of Aragorn and Araafa, who will get first run on her and aren’t
likely to slow down? 3) Will she be able to deliver her absolute best on the
heels of her fiercest battle of the season? To be sure, Biancone is a master at
having his horses absolutely right on the big occasion, but you can never really
know the toll such an effort takes until the next time they race.

Intriguing Longshots — If the ground is firm, AD VALOREM
(Danzig) has legitimate credentials to pull the upset. Should the going be
termed good or soft, ROB ROY is worth a flyer.

Ad Valorem will probably fly under the radar as one of three representing
O’Brien’s Ballydoyle yard, especially since his overall record is uninspiring.
Ignoring his efforts on soft going, however, Ad Valorem is a first-rate
performer, boasting a victory in the Queen Anne S. (Eng-G1) at Royal Ascot in
June and a commendable second in the 2005 St. James’s Palace to champion
Shamardal. Last time out in the Woodbine Mile S. (Can-G1), Ad Valorem closed
well late for third despite throwing a shoe. Jamie Spencer, who rode him to win
the 2004 Middle Park S. (Eng-G1) as a juvenile, will partner him in the Mile. 

An 11th-hour addition to the field, Rob Roy was actually mentioned in my last
International Diary as a horse to follow next year. Long well regarded but
sometimes disappointing, Rob Roy finished runner-up to Pride in the Champion last out,
just ahead of Hurricane Run, and is in the form of his life right now. Although
he stepped up to 1 1/4 miles for the Champion, most of
his races have come at a mile, including his Group 2 score in April. The
Racing Post reports that the Sir Michael Stoute charge turned in a
“scintillating” work at Newmarket recently and that Ramon Dominguez picks up the
mount. Entering the Breeders’ Cup as a late change of plan, rather than a
long-range target, usually isn’t the best way to go, but Rob Roy may be sitting
on a terrific effort.